Anchor ads are not supported on this page.

4S Ranch Allied Gardens Alpine Baja Balboa Park Bankers Hill Barrio Logan Bay Ho Bay Park Black Mountain Ranch Blossom Valley Bonita Bonsall Borrego Springs Boulevard Campo Cardiff-by-the-Sea Carlsbad Carmel Mountain Carmel Valley Chollas View Chula Vista City College City Heights Clairemont College Area Coronado CSU San Marcos Cuyamaca College Del Cerro Del Mar Descanso Downtown San Diego Eastlake East Village El Cajon Emerald Hills Encanto Encinitas Escondido Fallbrook Fletcher Hills Golden Hill Grant Hill Grantville Grossmont College Guatay Harbor Island Hillcrest Imperial Beach Imperial Valley Jacumba Jamacha-Lomita Jamul Julian Kearny Mesa Kensington La Jolla Lakeside La Mesa Lemon Grove Leucadia Liberty Station Lincoln Acres Lincoln Park Linda Vista Little Italy Logan Heights Mesa College Midway District MiraCosta College Miramar Miramar College Mira Mesa Mission Beach Mission Hills Mission Valley Mountain View Mount Hope Mount Laguna National City Nestor Normal Heights North Park Oak Park Ocean Beach Oceanside Old Town Otay Mesa Pacific Beach Pala Palomar College Palomar Mountain Paradise Hills Pauma Valley Pine Valley Point Loma Point Loma Nazarene Potrero Poway Rainbow Ramona Rancho Bernardo Rancho Penasquitos Rancho San Diego Rancho Santa Fe Rolando San Carlos San Marcos San Onofre Santa Ysabel Santee San Ysidro Scripps Ranch SDSU Serra Mesa Shelltown Shelter Island Sherman Heights Skyline Solana Beach Sorrento Valley Southcrest South Park Southwestern College Spring Valley Stockton Talmadge Temecula Tierrasanta Tijuana UCSD University City University Heights USD Valencia Park Valley Center Vista Warner Springs

What war economy would do for San Diego

112,000 troops stationed here in 2009

What will happen to San Diego when the local defense spending decreases?
What will happen to San Diego when the local defense spending decreases?

Once again, Americans are beginning to talk about guns versus butter. Do we want to remain a military superpower, or do we want our social safety net and our corporate welfare programs?

In San Diego, guns are butter. Directly and indirectly, military spending accounts for more than 20 percent of the local economy and one-fourth of the jobs.

Therefore, it is prudent for San Diego to plot a course in case the nation’s voters express a desire to turn swords into plowshares — to convert, at least partially, military weapons, technologies, and personnel to peaceful uses. The concept goes by several names, including arms conversion and economic conversion, and in the past, it has generated far more talk than action.

Nonetheless, San Diego is considering the question. Leadership of the San Diego Association of Governments is discussing the matter and may appoint a committee to study the ramifications of possible arms conversion, says Marney Cox, chief economist for the organization. The entire establishment — elected officials, universities, etc. — is “very supportive of more, not less, military” but may have to bow to the national will. There are small groups in the county devoted to economic conversion, but their influence is anemic.

Sponsored
Sponsored

Now, United States military spending is burgeoning. Officially, it is around 20 percent of the federal budget. But critics say that’s vastly understated. If you take into account supplemental defense budgets, veterans’ benefits, military retirement, State Department defense spending, military-related foreign aid, Homeland Security, the Department of Energy nuclear arsenal, and the interest on the debt related to defense spending, the military takes up about half of the budget, say peace movement leaders.

Whether that’s true or not, the national discourse is getting more dovish. Polls show that United States intervention in certain Greater Middle East countries is not popular. Republican presidential candidate Ron Paul has always opposed military buildups, and now two of his brethren — Mitt Romney and Jon Huntsman — are expressing reservations, and dropout Haley Barbour considered taking a bold antiwar stance.

However, there aren’t many antiwar protests these days, and nonmainstream peace proposals get nowhere. The “Nuclear Disarmament and Economic Conversion Act” was introduced every congressional session between 1994 and 2009 and never got near first base; this year it has been reintroduced in somewhat different form. It’s not expected to fly.

But, increasingly, people are quoting moderate voices, often from the past, telling how military spending is a critical — often deleterious — part of the American economy. You can read today that the late, great American diplomat and historian George F. Kennan said during the cold war that “Were the Soviet Union to sink tomorrow under the waters of the ocean, the American military-industrial establishment would have to go on, substantially unchanged, until some other adversary could be invented.” Many consider that prescient, indeed.

Once again, publications are quoting former president Dwight D. Eisenhower’s warning about the military-industrial complex, along with his lesser-recited statement, “Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired signifies, in the final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed.” Eisenhower, a retired general, was a moderate Republican.

Republican Robert Gates, who just retired as defense secretary, said this year, “Given America’s difficult economic circumstances and parlous fiscal condition, military spending on things large and small can and should expect closer and harsher scrutiny.”

Gates, a longtime cold warrior, laments the state of affairs. He wants America to throw its weight around — one reason he may have departed. But, says Cox, “Gates is saying that in the old days we were able to support a lot more military activity because the economy could afford it. That is changing. With our eroding economic base, we can no longer support these defense expenditures.”

A study published this spring by the San Diego Military Advisory Council indicates that with the ripple effect (events in one industry spreading out to other industries), military spending in San Diego in 2009 generated $30.5 billion of economic impact and generated 354,627 jobs, or 26 percent of regional employment. This year, the economic impact should be $34.7 billion, while military-generated jobs grow to 385,391.

Direct spending grew by 10.1 percent in 2007, 14.1 percent in 2008, and 12.3 percent in 2009, according to the report. That was impressive growth in some bad years. Growth for 2010 and 2011 is projected at 5 and 3.5 percent, respectively. Kelly Cunningham, economist for the National University System Institute for Policy Research, notes that San Diego County personal income dropped 1.1 percent in recessionary 2008 and 2009, compared with a national decline of 1.8 percent. San Diego’s smaller drop resulted from a $1.9 billion jump in federal payrolls, $1.5 billion of which was military.

Had federal and military pay remained constant, along with other transfer payments (Social Security, unemployment compensation, welfare, etc.), San Diego’s personal income would have plunged 3.1 percent; that would have been one of the worst performances in the nation.

A big rise in military pay has helped. According to the U.S. Department of Commerce, the number of active duty troops in San Diego only rose from 109,800 in 2001 to 112,000 in 2009. However, compensation leaped 97 percent during the period, 53 percent adjusted for inflation, says Cunningham.

According to the San Diego Military Advisory Council, 58.4 percent of direct military spending in San Diego comes from procurement, such as manufacture of equipment. Active duty salaries are 26.8 percent, retirement and veterans’ benefits 8.9 percent, and civilian salaries 5.4 percent.

Just as with pro sports, the arts, and redevelopment promoters begging for government handouts, the ripple effect can be exaggerated, consciously or unconsciously. Still, says Cunningham, “When you are dependent on one customer, you are dependent on their whims or decisions. It’s better to have more diversification.”

Of course, arms conversion, if there is any, doesn’t have to hurt San Diego. “It’s possible we could benefit,” says Cox. “The military is moving from the East Coast to the West Coast. Secondly, we have a heavy concentration of Marines, and they tend to be disproportionately less impacted by cutbacks.”

Any conversion process will likely be slow, giving metro areas such as San Diego time to adjust. And there will be plenty of political haggling that could considerably water down any efforts. Still, San Diego is doing the right thing by preparing for any eventuality. The problem is that nobody knows quite what form conversion might take, and the decisions will be made elsewhere.

The latest copy of the Reader

Here's something you might be interested in.
Submit a free classified
or view all
Previous article

La Clochette brings croissants—and cassoulet—to Mission Valley

Whatever's going on with this bakery business, Civita Park residents get a decent meal
Next Article

Mang Tomas, banana ketchup barred in San Diego

What will happen to Filipino Christmas here?
What will happen to San Diego when the local defense spending decreases?
What will happen to San Diego when the local defense spending decreases?

Once again, Americans are beginning to talk about guns versus butter. Do we want to remain a military superpower, or do we want our social safety net and our corporate welfare programs?

In San Diego, guns are butter. Directly and indirectly, military spending accounts for more than 20 percent of the local economy and one-fourth of the jobs.

Therefore, it is prudent for San Diego to plot a course in case the nation’s voters express a desire to turn swords into plowshares — to convert, at least partially, military weapons, technologies, and personnel to peaceful uses. The concept goes by several names, including arms conversion and economic conversion, and in the past, it has generated far more talk than action.

Nonetheless, San Diego is considering the question. Leadership of the San Diego Association of Governments is discussing the matter and may appoint a committee to study the ramifications of possible arms conversion, says Marney Cox, chief economist for the organization. The entire establishment — elected officials, universities, etc. — is “very supportive of more, not less, military” but may have to bow to the national will. There are small groups in the county devoted to economic conversion, but their influence is anemic.

Sponsored
Sponsored

Now, United States military spending is burgeoning. Officially, it is around 20 percent of the federal budget. But critics say that’s vastly understated. If you take into account supplemental defense budgets, veterans’ benefits, military retirement, State Department defense spending, military-related foreign aid, Homeland Security, the Department of Energy nuclear arsenal, and the interest on the debt related to defense spending, the military takes up about half of the budget, say peace movement leaders.

Whether that’s true or not, the national discourse is getting more dovish. Polls show that United States intervention in certain Greater Middle East countries is not popular. Republican presidential candidate Ron Paul has always opposed military buildups, and now two of his brethren — Mitt Romney and Jon Huntsman — are expressing reservations, and dropout Haley Barbour considered taking a bold antiwar stance.

However, there aren’t many antiwar protests these days, and nonmainstream peace proposals get nowhere. The “Nuclear Disarmament and Economic Conversion Act” was introduced every congressional session between 1994 and 2009 and never got near first base; this year it has been reintroduced in somewhat different form. It’s not expected to fly.

But, increasingly, people are quoting moderate voices, often from the past, telling how military spending is a critical — often deleterious — part of the American economy. You can read today that the late, great American diplomat and historian George F. Kennan said during the cold war that “Were the Soviet Union to sink tomorrow under the waters of the ocean, the American military-industrial establishment would have to go on, substantially unchanged, until some other adversary could be invented.” Many consider that prescient, indeed.

Once again, publications are quoting former president Dwight D. Eisenhower’s warning about the military-industrial complex, along with his lesser-recited statement, “Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired signifies, in the final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed.” Eisenhower, a retired general, was a moderate Republican.

Republican Robert Gates, who just retired as defense secretary, said this year, “Given America’s difficult economic circumstances and parlous fiscal condition, military spending on things large and small can and should expect closer and harsher scrutiny.”

Gates, a longtime cold warrior, laments the state of affairs. He wants America to throw its weight around — one reason he may have departed. But, says Cox, “Gates is saying that in the old days we were able to support a lot more military activity because the economy could afford it. That is changing. With our eroding economic base, we can no longer support these defense expenditures.”

A study published this spring by the San Diego Military Advisory Council indicates that with the ripple effect (events in one industry spreading out to other industries), military spending in San Diego in 2009 generated $30.5 billion of economic impact and generated 354,627 jobs, or 26 percent of regional employment. This year, the economic impact should be $34.7 billion, while military-generated jobs grow to 385,391.

Direct spending grew by 10.1 percent in 2007, 14.1 percent in 2008, and 12.3 percent in 2009, according to the report. That was impressive growth in some bad years. Growth for 2010 and 2011 is projected at 5 and 3.5 percent, respectively. Kelly Cunningham, economist for the National University System Institute for Policy Research, notes that San Diego County personal income dropped 1.1 percent in recessionary 2008 and 2009, compared with a national decline of 1.8 percent. San Diego’s smaller drop resulted from a $1.9 billion jump in federal payrolls, $1.5 billion of which was military.

Had federal and military pay remained constant, along with other transfer payments (Social Security, unemployment compensation, welfare, etc.), San Diego’s personal income would have plunged 3.1 percent; that would have been one of the worst performances in the nation.

A big rise in military pay has helped. According to the U.S. Department of Commerce, the number of active duty troops in San Diego only rose from 109,800 in 2001 to 112,000 in 2009. However, compensation leaped 97 percent during the period, 53 percent adjusted for inflation, says Cunningham.

According to the San Diego Military Advisory Council, 58.4 percent of direct military spending in San Diego comes from procurement, such as manufacture of equipment. Active duty salaries are 26.8 percent, retirement and veterans’ benefits 8.9 percent, and civilian salaries 5.4 percent.

Just as with pro sports, the arts, and redevelopment promoters begging for government handouts, the ripple effect can be exaggerated, consciously or unconsciously. Still, says Cunningham, “When you are dependent on one customer, you are dependent on their whims or decisions. It’s better to have more diversification.”

Of course, arms conversion, if there is any, doesn’t have to hurt San Diego. “It’s possible we could benefit,” says Cox. “The military is moving from the East Coast to the West Coast. Secondly, we have a heavy concentration of Marines, and they tend to be disproportionately less impacted by cutbacks.”

Any conversion process will likely be slow, giving metro areas such as San Diego time to adjust. And there will be plenty of political haggling that could considerably water down any efforts. Still, San Diego is doing the right thing by preparing for any eventuality. The problem is that nobody knows quite what form conversion might take, and the decisions will be made elsewhere.

Comments
Sponsored

The latest copy of the Reader

Here's something you might be interested in.
Submit a free classified
or view all
Previous article

Tuna within 3-day range Back in the Counts

Mind the rockfish regulations
Next Article

Birdwatching bonanza, earliest sunset of the year, bulb planting time

Venus shines its brightest
Comments
Ask a Hipster — Advice you didn't know you needed Big Screen — Movie commentary Blurt — Music's inside track Booze News — San Diego spirits Classical Music — Immortal beauty Classifieds — Free and easy Cover Stories — Front-page features Drinks All Around — Bartenders' drink recipes Excerpts — Literary and spiritual excerpts Feast! — Food & drink reviews Feature Stories — Local news & stories Fishing Report — What’s getting hooked from ship and shore From the Archives — Spotlight on the past Golden Dreams — Talk of the town The Gonzo Report — Making the musical scene, or at least reporting from it Letters — Our inbox Movies@Home — Local movie buffs share favorites Movie Reviews — Our critics' picks and pans Musician Interviews — Up close with local artists Neighborhood News from Stringers — Hyperlocal news News Ticker — News & politics Obermeyer — San Diego politics illustrated Outdoors — Weekly changes in flora and fauna Overheard in San Diego — Eavesdropping illustrated Poetry — The old and the new Reader Travel — Travel section built by travelers Reading — The hunt for intellectuals Roam-O-Rama — SoCal's best hiking/biking trails San Diego Beer — Inside San Diego suds SD on the QT — Almost factual news Sheep and Goats — Places of worship Special Issues — The best of Street Style — San Diego streets have style Surf Diego — Real stories from those braving the waves Theater — On stage in San Diego this week Tin Fork — Silver spoon alternative Under the Radar — Matt Potter's undercover work Unforgettable — Long-ago San Diego Unreal Estate — San Diego's priciest pads Your Week — Daily event picks
4S Ranch Allied Gardens Alpine Baja Balboa Park Bankers Hill Barrio Logan Bay Ho Bay Park Black Mountain Ranch Blossom Valley Bonita Bonsall Borrego Springs Boulevard Campo Cardiff-by-the-Sea Carlsbad Carmel Mountain Carmel Valley Chollas View Chula Vista City College City Heights Clairemont College Area Coronado CSU San Marcos Cuyamaca College Del Cerro Del Mar Descanso Downtown San Diego Eastlake East Village El Cajon Emerald Hills Encanto Encinitas Escondido Fallbrook Fletcher Hills Golden Hill Grant Hill Grantville Grossmont College Guatay Harbor Island Hillcrest Imperial Beach Imperial Valley Jacumba Jamacha-Lomita Jamul Julian Kearny Mesa Kensington La Jolla Lakeside La Mesa Lemon Grove Leucadia Liberty Station Lincoln Acres Lincoln Park Linda Vista Little Italy Logan Heights Mesa College Midway District MiraCosta College Miramar Miramar College Mira Mesa Mission Beach Mission Hills Mission Valley Mountain View Mount Hope Mount Laguna National City Nestor Normal Heights North Park Oak Park Ocean Beach Oceanside Old Town Otay Mesa Pacific Beach Pala Palomar College Palomar Mountain Paradise Hills Pauma Valley Pine Valley Point Loma Point Loma Nazarene Potrero Poway Rainbow Ramona Rancho Bernardo Rancho Penasquitos Rancho San Diego Rancho Santa Fe Rolando San Carlos San Marcos San Onofre Santa Ysabel Santee San Ysidro Scripps Ranch SDSU Serra Mesa Shelltown Shelter Island Sherman Heights Skyline Solana Beach Sorrento Valley Southcrest South Park Southwestern College Spring Valley Stockton Talmadge Temecula Tierrasanta Tijuana UCSD University City University Heights USD Valencia Park Valley Center Vista Warner Springs
Close

Anchor ads are not supported on this page.

This Week’s Reader This Week’s Reader