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The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller real estate price index, published this morning (July 30) shows San Diego values rising 3.1% in May from April, outperforming the 2.4% gain of the top 20 metro areas. For the year to date through May, local prices are up 17.3%, also outperforming the index of the top 20 metro areas. San Diego County home values are now down 28.3% from their peak in November of 2005.

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Ponzi Aug. 1, 2013 @ 10:45 p.m.

There are two bubbles right now. Social networking stocks like LinkedIn, Yelp, Facebook and other trash that only speed connection to businesses but do not push positive GNP. If I were to speculate in the 1980's that the "Horchow Collection Catalog" would redefine retailing, people would laugh. All the internet websites are is "mail order" online. They don't have to mail catalogs. So they save postage. That is the savings. The internet craze is back, but now instead of Infospace.com it's garbage content collectors like Yelp (that think those reviews are value added?). The retail investor is being sold on "mobile" as if having the internet in your hand is that much different than having the internet on your desk. This might be true is we are going to admit that a large proportion of our youth have attention-deficit disorder and this will play directly into their buying habits. That their phones will become impulse buying, transaction fee slicing, habits for everything they do. In that case, the 1% is smart and the 99% who are participating in this stupid game should not complain. They enjoy it.

Real estate is another bubble because of pent-up demand. Just because foreclosures are drying up does not mean the market is cured. All it takes for a bear market in real estate is an uptick in construction and rising interest rates. The DOW is trading 1500+ over the 34 week moving average. Watch for a major correction soon.


Don Bauder Aug. 2, 2013 @ 9:27 a.m.

Ponzi: Yes, the social networking stocks are looking bubbly, but we are nowhere near the dot-com/telecom/tech/biotech bubble that brought the Nasdaq down 80% more than a decade ago. Housing prices are getting dangerous, but in once-hot markets like San Diego, are still well below levels of late 2005 and 2006, when that bubble exploded. Best, Don Bauder


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