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The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller real estate price index, published this morning (July 30) shows San Diego values rising 3.1% in May from April, outperforming the 2.4% gain of the top 20 metro areas. For the year to date through May, local prices are up 17.3%, also outperforming the index of the top 20 metro areas. San Diego County home values are now down 28.3% from their peak in November of 2005.

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There are two bubbles right now. Social networking stocks like LinkedIn, Yelp, Facebook and other trash that only speed connection to businesses but do not push positive GNP. If I were to speculate in the 1980's that the "Horchow Collection Catalog" would redefine retailing, people would laugh. All the internet websites are is "mail order" online. They don't have to mail catalogs. So they save postage. That is the savings. The internet craze is back, but now instead of Infospace.com it's garbage content collectors like Yelp (that think those reviews are value added?). The retail investor is being sold on "mobile" as if having the internet in your hand is that much different than having the internet on your desk. This might be true is we are going to admit that a large proportion of our youth have attention-deficit disorder and this will play directly into their buying habits. That their phones will become impulse buying, transaction fee slicing, habits for everything they do. In that case, the 1% is smart and the 99% who are participating in this stupid game should not complain. They enjoy it.

Real estate is another bubble because of pent-up demand. Just because foreclosures are drying up does not mean the market is cured. All it takes for a bear market in real estate is an uptick in construction and rising interest rates. The DOW is trading 1500+ over the 34 week moving average. Watch for a major correction soon.

Aug. 1, 2013

Ponzi: Yes, the social networking stocks are looking bubbly, but we are nowhere near the dot-com/telecom/tech/biotech bubble that brought the Nasdaq down 80% more than a decade ago. Housing prices are getting dangerous, but in once-hot markets like San Diego, are still well below levels of late 2005 and 2006, when that bubble exploded. Best, Don Bauder

Aug. 2, 2013

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4S Ranch Allied Gardens Alpine Baja Balboa Park Bankers Hill Barrio Logan Bay Ho Bay Park Black Mountain Ranch Blossom Valley Bonita Bonsall Borrego Springs Boulevard Campo Cardiff-by-the-Sea Carlsbad Carmel Mountain Carmel Valley Chollas View Chula Vista City College City Heights Clairemont College Area Coronado CSU San Marcos Cuyamaca College Del Cerro Del Mar Descanso Downtown San Diego Eastlake East Village El Cajon Emerald Hills Encanto Encinitas Escondido Fallbrook Fletcher Hills Golden Hill Grant Hill Grantville Grossmont College Guatay Harbor Island Hillcrest Imperial Beach Imperial Valley Jacumba Jamacha-Lomita Jamul Julian Kearny Mesa Kensington La Jolla Lakeside La Mesa Lemon Grove Leucadia Liberty Station Lincoln Acres Lincoln Park Linda Vista Little Italy Logan Heights Mesa College Midway District MiraCosta College Miramar Miramar College Mira Mesa Mission Beach Mission Hills Mission Valley Mountain View Mount Hope Mount Laguna National City Nestor Normal Heights North Park Oak Park Ocean Beach Oceanside Old Town Otay Mesa Pacific Beach Pala Palomar College Palomar Mountain Paradise Hills Pauma Valley Pine Valley Point Loma Point Loma Nazarene Potrero Poway Rainbow Ramona Rancho Bernardo Rancho Penasquitos Rancho San Diego Rancho Santa Fe Rolando San Carlos San Marcos San Onofre Santa Ysabel Santee San Ysidro Scripps Ranch SDSU Serra Mesa Shelltown Shelter Island Sherman Heights Skyline Solana Beach Sorrento Valley Southcrest South Park Southwestern College Spring Valley Stockton Talmadge Temecula Tierrasanta Tijuana UCSD University City University Heights USD Valencia Park Valley Center Vista Warner Springs
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