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San Diego home values in May rose 0.4% from April, according to Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller home price indices released this morning (July 28). Over the last year, home values are down 18.5%. That is an improvement over previous months, when they were consistently down more than 20% year-over-year. Of the 20 major metro areas, eight did worse than San Diego. That is also an improvement from previous months. Local values remain down 42% from the peak of November 2005. Nationally, the index for the 20 major metro areas (including San Diego) improved for the fourth straight month. The 20-city composite dropped 17.1% in May from a year ago, an improvement from the 18.1% drop of April. "The pace of descent in home price values appears to be slowing," says S&P economist Dvid Blitzer. However, "We should remember that on a year-over-year basis home prices are still down about 17%."

Comments
11

Many wishful thinkers will claim these stats mean that the housing market has bottomed and is headed up. But aren't there plenty more foreclosures looming? Home prices here in SD were so inflated at the top that even having dropped by 42% are still unaffordable for most families. The market has new homes being finished every day, and those are mostly large and costly. Forgive me, but these stats just don't look right, and I think we'll see home prices drop more in the months ahead.

July 28, 2009

I would love to see some numbers (percentages) on the occupancies on the condos downtown.

Anyone have any info?

July 28, 2009

Response to post #1: I have to agree with you, but I don't think the further decline will be precipitous. Foreclosures slowed because of federal and lender initiatives. They will pick up again. However, there ARE buyers out there, too. Short term interest rates are near zero and the Fed is buying up long paper to keep mortgage rates inordinately low. Prices are down sharply: there has to be SOME activity, including from speculators. But this news is nothing to do cartwheels over. There has been moderate improvement in housing because the Fed and Treasury have created such massive liquidity. But the underlying housing situation is still grim. Best, Don Bauder

July 28, 2009

Response to post #2: Offhand, I don't know the percentage, but the LA Times had a very good story on the downtown disaster in yesterday's edition. It was front page, and worth reading. Best, Don Bauder

July 28, 2009

"LA Times had a very good story on the downtown disaster in yesterday's edition"

I love how we have to look to the LA times for san diego news.

July 28, 2009

Response to post #5: Of course, there is another angle to that. The LA Times has traditionally done a good job covering crooks and economic woes elsewhere, but not such a good job covering the same in LA. Best, Don Bauder

July 28, 2009

Response to post #6: That article will answer some questions. It's pretty grim downtown. Best, Don Bauder

July 28, 2009

"The LA Times has traditionally done a good job covering crooks and economic woes elsewhere"

I agree.

But the condo disaster downtown is probably the biggest story going in San Diego.

Yet the union tribune (really just a san diego hype paper) doesn't cover it.

The other story I don't see is the incredible amount of commercial vacancies downtown.

July 29, 2009

Response to post #9: I think Lori Weisberg did at least one piece on the downtown condo collapse several months ago. But it was tardy, tardy. Other reporters including myself had done many pieces on it. Same with Smart Corner. Seems to me the U-T covered that disaster a couple of years after the Reader had covered it. Yes, the condo situation downtown is a disaster and the commercial real estate collapse may even top the residential downswoon. Best, Don Bauder

July 29, 2009

?: http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1274847616&play=1 Lawler Econ & Hsg Consulting:

foreclosures: will pick up "100% certain"

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Home-sales-fall-after-4-apf-2064841344.html?x=0 Zibel, AP, 9/24/09 (unemploymt, fclosures)"there will be plenty of more pain for higher-priced properties," wrote J.Shapiro, chief U.S. economist with MFR http://www.benzinga.com/eric-mancini/2009/9/10/meredith-whitney-stated-u-s-home-prices-to-decline-another-25-umm-dmm Meredith Whitney Stated US Home Prices to Decline another 25% (UMM, DMM) Benzinga - Sep 10, 2009

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Home-sales-drop-27-apf-2064841344.html?x=0&.v=6

R.E. Recovery Obstacle: So Many Houses http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125374552378835617.html

Nearly 7 MM hsg units will enter fclosure.... 1.35 years'worth of inventory.

Y Be a Nation of MTGE Slaves? http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123336541474235541.html Households...fclosed today are the buyers tomrw, given chance to recover. Modificn not only ineffective, is evil. Coercing borrowers... (Ramsey Su) 9/25/2009 Diana Ollick, CNBC http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1275600154&play=1 Weak in view of last chance, tax credit. <$250K U.S.has purchased stablzn.

9/23/09 WSJ, A10 Simon, Hagerty DELAYED FORECLOSURES STALK Ivy Zelman...believes three million to four million foreclosed homes will be put up for sale in the next few years...." "As if July, mortgage companies hadn't begun the foreclosure process on 1.2 million loans that were at least 9 days past due....An additional 1.5 million were somewhere in the foreclosure process, though the lender hadn't yet acquired. Figures don't include home-equity loans and other second mortgages.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=aI1Eso1VomfE

"Banks...reluctant to buy mtge-backed securities til they know market can function w/o Fed:Lou Crandall, chief economist, Wrightson ICAP. DECISION ON ENDING HOUSING PROP CAN WAIT, WSJ, 9/21 MARK GONGLOFF

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=aI1Eso1VomfE 9/21 (Bloomberg) -- The recovering hsg mkt may be heading for relapse as Obama and Bernanke consider ending support for the source of the global financial crisis. 9/18/09 Peter Eavis, WSJ More than 1/2 of U.S. residential mtgs are being made by just 3 large banks.... ...Hsg remains on govt life support.Treasury-backed entities are guaranteeing about 85% of new mtgs, while the Fed buys 80% of the securities into which these taxpayer-backed mtgs are packaged.... Wells's chief executive, John Stumpf, recently said: "We're not putting on 30-year [fixed-rate] mortgages at these rates."

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124570817652538675.html

A house that sold for $600K during the boom and $400,000 in foreclosure will be recorded by the NAR as a $400K sale, lifting the national median but suggesting no real improvement in housing." Mark Gongloff, WSJ, 6/23/09

Sept. 26, 2009

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