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The nation suffered "broad-based declines" in home prices in October, according to Standard & Poor's, as it published its last Case-Shiller home price indexes in 2011 today (Dec. 27). Average prices in the largest 20 metro areas dropped 1.2% in October from September. San Diego had a more modest decline: 0.6%. However, compared with October of a year earlier, San Diego's 4.5% drop was worse than the 20-city average decline of 3.4%. Only two cities posted year-over-year increases: Detroit, which has been extremely depressed, and Washington D.C., which lives in a bubble all its own.

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Don Bauder Dec. 28, 2011 @ 11:40 a.m.

I suspect there is another 20% to go on the downside in the U.S. housing market, although it won't come as fast as it did after the 2006 peak nationally (late 2005 in San Diego). San Diego might do a bit less bad as the nation on this second downleg, because it came down a little harder on the first leg. Best, Don Bauder


Ponzi Dec. 28, 2011 @ 9:23 a.m.

When there is no job creation, houses are not going to be in demand. Even with the lowest interest rates in years, the housing market remains stalled. Imagine what is going to happen to the price of homes when interest rates rise. I’m speculating, but if interest rates would rise to, say 7%, I feel that would shave another 25% off the median home price (because people buy homes based on the monthly strokes – what they can afford). A bump in interest rates means a dump in prices and a slump in sales.


Don Bauder Dec. 28, 2011 @ 11:44 a.m.

Interesting point. I, for one, do not think rates will go up for awhile. After all, the Fed has said it will keep the federal funds rate at around zero until mid-2013. I expect another QE round as things worsen in 2012. That would pull long rates down. Actually, neither the Fed nor the U.S. government wants the economy to recover rapidly. If it did so, as banks loaned out money, inflation would soar. Interest rates will have to go up at some point, but I don't see that on the immediate horizon. Best, Don Bauder


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