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Home values in the 20 largest metro markets dropped 3.7% in November from a year earlier, according to Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller indices released this morning (Jan. 31). There were 18 year-over-year declines in the 20 markets and 19 month-over-month declines. San Diego County values were down 5.4% year-over-year, worse than the 3.7% decline of the 20 metro markets as a group. San Diego November prices dropped 0.9% from October, better than the 1.3% drop of the top 20. "Despite continued low interest rates and better [inflation-adjusted gross domestic product] growth in the fourth quarter, home prices continue to fall," says S&P economist David Blitzer. San Diego home values are now down 39.5% from their late 2005 peak, compared with a 33% decline from the peaks for the top 20 markets.

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Twister Feb. 1, 2012 @ 10:35 p.m.

If you took the "normal" appreciation rate, disregarding the peak(s), would the 39% point be above or below the extension of that "normal" trend to the present? I'm looking for a hand in there somewhere; I've had enough of the ponies . . .


Don Bauder Feb. 2, 2012 @ 10:55 a.m.

Good question, Twister. The SD housing market escalated crazily in the early part of the decade, crashing and burning beginning in 2005 for San Diego and 2006 for most of the rest of the nation. Had there not been such amazing appreciation, would the 39% haircut only bring us back to a normal market? Possible. You have to make some subjective assumptions to figure this one. SD homes are among the most expensive in the nation. Should they be, given employment trends, shabby construction, etc.? Best, Don Bauder


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