• Scam Diego alerts

November home prices in the 20 major metro areas were down a record 18.2 percent compared with a year earlier, according to Case-Shiller Home Price Indices released this morning (Jan. 27) by Standard & Poor's. San Diego did worse: the county's home prices were down 25.8 percent from November of last year. That decline was topped by only five cities: Phoenix (down 32.9 percent), Las Vegas (31.6), San Francisco (30.8), Miami (28.7) and Los Angeles (26.9). These six metro areas, which were grossly overbuilt, generally in condos, have consistently been the biggest monthly decliners. San Diego prices are now down 38 percent from their peak in November of 2005. There was one piece of possibly encouraging news: San Diego's drop of 2.3 percent from October to November of this year was less than the drop of 3 percent between September and October.

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JohnnyVegas Jan. 27, 2009 @ 11:28 a.m.

I called 30% max-Don you called much more- you killed me on this one!


JohnnyVegas Jan. 27, 2009 @ 11:29 a.m.

In my defense I did not see the depression that started in September of 08.


Don Bauder Jan. 27, 2009 @ 12:18 p.m.

Response to post #1: If I killed you, do you think I was a paid assassin for JF and Just Wondering? Best, Don Bauder


Don Bauder Jan. 27, 2009 @ 12:24 p.m.

Response to post #2: It will be up to the National Bureau of Economic Research to declare if a depression started in September (the month in which Lehman Bros. went under, among many calamities). There are several definitions of depression. One is three years of recession. The NBER says the recession started in Dec. of 2007. So if the recession drags on most of the way through 2010, we have a depression, according to that definition. Any economist could certainly make the case that the financial calamity really picked up steam in September. However, it should have been obvious to any serious student of the economy long before Sept. that the banks were broke because of the nearly worthless derivatives they held. Best, Don Bauder


valueinvestingisdead Jan. 27, 2009 @ 1:31 p.m.

More plunge to come. Encinitas and Carlsbad has insane amounts of option rate ARMs that are going to explode in 2010-2012. Those areas could see 50% drops.


JustWondering Jan. 27, 2009 @ 3:03 p.m.

Hopefully hiring someone to assassinate another is illegal in Colorado too. I'd NEVER even consider it. In his case, euthanasia would be more appropriate so he'd stop worrying about JF and me.


JohnnyVegas Jan. 27, 2009 @ 3:14 p.m.

It will be up to the National Bureau of Economic Research to declare if a depression started in September (the month in which Lehman Bros. went under, among many calamities).

I can tell you this, I was in real estate the last big downturn, which was 90-96, and the commercial real estate market was wiped out. Many people were referring to it as a depression (even though it was not a depression-it felt that way in commercial real estate).

Donald Trump lost his a$$ during those years and he referred to that downturn as a depression. 90% of apartment complexe sales and at least 50%+ of ALL retail, office and industrial real estate sales in that period were REO (bank owned) properties. Bank owned selling drove prices to rock bottom. Class A office lease space in UTC, Downtown, anywhere, was fetching just $1.50 a square foot full service-peanuts.

Sam Zell bought a UTC office tower for $114 a sq sqaure foot in 1994, which was valued at $400 per square foot in 1989 . That's how bad it got.

Today is worse, much worse because of the job loss.

Jobs are the key. Jobs make the economy go round. Without jobs everything falls apart. We have lost close to a million Fortune 500 jobs within the last 4 months alone.

I could not even guess how many small business jobs were lost-and small business accounts for over 80% of all jobs in America.

This makes 90-96 look like a day at he beach. This is much worse than that, it is much broader, the job loss has been much more severe and I predict it will get much worse before it gets better.

2010 MAY be the turning point, but it may go past 2010. It is certainly not going to turn within the 2009 calander year.


Don Bauder Jan. 27, 2009 @ 6:55 p.m.

Response to post #5: You are correct. There is more to come. There are lots more exotic mortgages that will push people into foreclosure. During the runup of housing prices, San Diego had one of the highest percentages of exotic mortgages of U.S. metro areas. Best, Don Bauder


Don Bauder Jan. 27, 2009 @ 6:58 p.m.

Response to post #6: How am I going to bump off Johnny from Colorado? When I was in the Army, I couldn't hit a large target at 10 feet. Do you think I could launch an accurate long-range missile? Besides, Johnny adds to this blog. So do you and JF. Best, Don Bauder


Don Bauder Jan. 27, 2009 @ 7:01 p.m.

Response to post #7: One segment of the economy can be in depression while another segment is in recession, or even doing well. Yes, commercial real estate was a disaster in the early 1990s downturn. Residential real estate is now in depression, and commercial real estate is sinking fast. Best, Don Bauder


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