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November home prices in the 20 major metro areas were down a record 18.2 percent compared with a year earlier, according to Case-Shiller Home Price Indices released this morning (Jan. 27) by Standard & Poor's. San Diego did worse: the county's home prices were down 25.8 percent from November of last year. That decline was topped by only five cities: Phoenix (down 32.9 percent), Las Vegas (31.6), San Francisco (30.8), Miami (28.7) and Los Angeles (26.9). These six metro areas, which were grossly overbuilt, generally in condos, have consistently been the biggest monthly decliners. San Diego prices are now down 38 percent from their peak in November of 2005. There was one piece of possibly encouraging news: San Diego's drop of 2.3 percent from October to November of this year was less than the drop of 3 percent between September and October.

Comments
10

I called 30% max-Don you called much more- you killed me on this one!

Jan. 27, 2009

In my defense I did not see the depression that started in September of 08.

Jan. 27, 2009

Response to post #1: If I killed you, do you think I was a paid assassin for JF and Just Wondering? Best, Don Bauder

Jan. 27, 2009

Response to post #2: It will be up to the National Bureau of Economic Research to declare if a depression started in September (the month in which Lehman Bros. went under, among many calamities). There are several definitions of depression. One is three years of recession. The NBER says the recession started in Dec. of 2007. So if the recession drags on most of the way through 2010, we have a depression, according to that definition. Any economist could certainly make the case that the financial calamity really picked up steam in September. However, it should have been obvious to any serious student of the economy long before Sept. that the banks were broke because of the nearly worthless derivatives they held. Best, Don Bauder

Jan. 27, 2009

More plunge to come. Encinitas and Carlsbad has insane amounts of option rate ARMs that are going to explode in 2010-2012. Those areas could see 50% drops.

Jan. 27, 2009

Hopefully hiring someone to assassinate another is illegal in Colorado too. I'd NEVER even consider it. In his case, euthanasia would be more appropriate so he'd stop worrying about JF and me.

Jan. 27, 2009

It will be up to the National Bureau of Economic Research to declare if a depression started in September (the month in which Lehman Bros. went under, among many calamities).

I can tell you this, I was in real estate the last big downturn, which was 90-96, and the commercial real estate market was wiped out. Many people were referring to it as a depression (even though it was not a depression-it felt that way in commercial real estate).

Donald Trump lost his a$$ during those years and he referred to that downturn as a depression. 90% of apartment complexe sales and at least 50%+ of ALL retail, office and industrial real estate sales in that period were REO (bank owned) properties. Bank owned selling drove prices to rock bottom. Class A office lease space in UTC, Downtown, anywhere, was fetching just $1.50 a square foot full service-peanuts.

Sam Zell bought a UTC office tower for $114 a sq sqaure foot in 1994, which was valued at $400 per square foot in 1989 . That's how bad it got.

Today is worse, much worse because of the job loss.

Jobs are the key. Jobs make the economy go round. Without jobs everything falls apart. We have lost close to a million Fortune 500 jobs within the last 4 months alone.

I could not even guess how many small business jobs were lost-and small business accounts for over 80% of all jobs in America.

This makes 90-96 look like a day at he beach. This is much worse than that, it is much broader, the job loss has been much more severe and I predict it will get much worse before it gets better.

2010 MAY be the turning point, but it may go past 2010. It is certainly not going to turn within the 2009 calander year.

Jan. 27, 2009

Response to post #5: You are correct. There is more to come. There are lots more exotic mortgages that will push people into foreclosure. During the runup of housing prices, San Diego had one of the highest percentages of exotic mortgages of U.S. metro areas. Best, Don Bauder

Jan. 27, 2009

Response to post #6: How am I going to bump off Johnny from Colorado? When I was in the Army, I couldn't hit a large target at 10 feet. Do you think I could launch an accurate long-range missile? Besides, Johnny adds to this blog. So do you and JF. Best, Don Bauder

Jan. 27, 2009

Response to post #7: One segment of the economy can be in depression while another segment is in recession, or even doing well. Yes, commercial real estate was a disaster in the early 1990s downturn. Residential real estate is now in depression, and commercial real estate is sinking fast. Best, Don Bauder

Jan. 27, 2009

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4S Ranch Allied Gardens Alpine Baja Balboa Park Bankers Hill Barrio Logan Bay Ho Bay Park Black Mountain Ranch Blossom Valley Bonita Bonsall Borrego Springs Boulevard Campo Cardiff-by-the-Sea Carlsbad Carmel Mountain Carmel Valley Chollas View Chula Vista City College City Heights Clairemont College Area Coronado CSU San Marcos Cuyamaca College Del Cerro Del Mar Descanso Downtown San Diego Eastlake East Village El Cajon Emerald Hills Encanto Encinitas Escondido Fallbrook Fletcher Hills Golden Hill Grant Hill Grantville Grossmont College Guatay Harbor Island Hillcrest Imperial Beach Imperial Valley Jacumba Jamacha-Lomita Jamul Julian Kearny Mesa Kensington La Jolla Lakeside La Mesa Lemon Grove Leucadia Liberty Station Lincoln Acres Lincoln Park Linda Vista Little Italy Logan Heights Mesa College Midway District MiraCosta College Miramar Miramar College Mira Mesa Mission Beach Mission Hills Mission Valley Mountain View Mount Hope Mount Laguna National City Nestor Normal Heights North Park Oak Park Ocean Beach Oceanside Old Town Otay Mesa Pacific Beach Pala Palomar College Palomar Mountain Paradise Hills Pauma Valley Pine Valley Point Loma Point Loma Nazarene Potrero Poway Rainbow Ramona Rancho Bernardo Rancho Penasquitos Rancho San Diego Rancho Santa Fe Rolando San Carlos San Marcos San Onofre Santa Ysabel Santee San Ysidro Scripps Ranch SDSU Serra Mesa Shelltown Shelter Island Sherman Heights Skyline Solana Beach Sorrento Valley Southcrest South Park Southwestern College Spring Valley Stockton Talmadge Temecula Tierrasanta Tijuana UCSD University City University Heights USD Valencia Park Valley Center Vista Warner Springs
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