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shizzyfinn

shizzyfinn is a Reader contributor. See staff page for published articles.

Be Skeptical of Today's Employment Figures

Inflation isn't showing up because of the extent of the Depression we are in, and the relatively meager amount of government stimulating going on. Most of the "trillions" tossed out by the Fed went to shore up balance sheets of too-big-to-fail institutions, keeping the institutions from going bust, but not otherwise stimulating the economy. In other words, all that bailout money went toward keeping things from getting worse, not helping things get better. This is a subtle but very important distinction. As for the $800 billion or so of actual federal stimulus money, hardly any of it has been spent yet - only about 15% - so of course there has been no real positive impact yet. But will there ever be? Even the whole 100% is a tiny amount of money compared to the size of our economy. For example, there was tons more stimulating going on when people were able to stimulate themselves by taking on huge loans against the value of their homes. That type of stimulating is gone and ain't coming back, which is one key contributor to the deflation we're mired in now. People just can't get cash like they used to. Keep in mind that it is not an ironclad rule that big boosts in money supply must lead to inflation. For example, over the last 15 to 20 years, Japan has responded to economic crisis by dramatically boosting money supply and government spending, much like we are doing now. Japan's moves have not resulted in any sizable inflation; in fact, Japan is suffering from deflation now, just like we are. As for the real estate market bottoming out, if you believe that, I've got a condo downtown I'd like to talk to you about...seriously though, prices may have come up a bit, but the key number of inventory of homes for sale is still bloated, something like 1/3 above normal nationwide, according to recent comment I read from S&P's David Blitzer. And he also mentioned that there is likely more "shadow inventory" waiting in the wings...that is, homes that owners want to put on the market but haven't because of how bad it is right now; if/when prices seem to be recovering, these homes will come on the market, keeping prices down. All in all, folks, it's going to get worse before it gets better. We are living through a massive step-down in standard of living for Americans unlike any seen since the first Depression; nobody knows how far it's going to go or how long it will last. Don't kid yourself by thinking there are definitive answers out there.
— September 5, 2009 12:41 p.m.

John Moores sinks Padres pay to number 29 of 30 teams

Remember how Moores traded for ace pitcher Kevin Brown in 1998, helping the Padres make the World Series in October of that year, with the ballpark happening to be on the ballot in November of that year? Come 1999, Brown was a free agent, but because Moores already had his ballpark in hand, he suddenly lost interest in signing Brown, who had a hefty price tag. And sure enough, the Padres went from 98 wins in 1998 to 74 in 1999. Since then, they haven't broke 89. Moores reminds me of David Dare, the dude profiled in recent Reader articles, who back in the 1880s took San Diegans for $200,000 and fled to Europe. Moores sure seems like a high-end bandit who played us San Diegans for dopes. refriedgringo points out that voters okayed Moores' Petco Park, but voters also okayed George W Bush. Bush got elected by playing to the greed of the rich with one hand and the fears and stupidity of non-rich Republicans with the other. Moores played on our affection for the Padres with one hand and our inability to see exactly how much he was getting in the deal on the other. You almost gotta give it to Moores for boldness and craftiness...from the Padres to Peregrine, he seems like he has an unusual gift for parting other people from hundreds of millions of dollars. Though maybe it's all falling apart...the wife bailing on him could be a signal that his run has ended and there's no more gold in them thar hills...she's the ultimate insider, and she's cashing out. Meanwhile, like David Dare, Moores has high-tailed it out of San Diego. Of course, Dare went to Europe, but Moores could only get as far as Texas. At least there's some justice there.
— August 26, 2009 10:34 p.m.

Flying Solo

Right on - paint the room red!
— August 26, 2009 4:18 p.m.

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