Quantcast
4S Ranch Allied Gardens Alpine Baja Balboa Park Bankers Hill Barrio Logan Bay Ho Bay Park Black Mountain Ranch Blossom Valley Bonita Bonsall Borrego Springs Boulevard Campo Cardiff-by-the-Sea Carlsbad Carmel Mountain Carmel Valley Chollas View Chula Vista City College City Heights Clairemont College Area Coronado CSU San Marcos Cuyamaca College Del Cerro Del Mar Descanso Downtown San Diego Eastlake East Village El Cajon Emerald Hills Encanto Encinitas Escondido Fallbrook Fletcher Hills Golden Hill Grant Hill Grantville Grossmont College Guatay Harbor Island Hillcrest Imperial Beach Imperial Valley Jacumba Jamacha-Lomita Jamul Julian Kearny Mesa Kensington La Jolla Lakeside La Mesa Lemon Grove Leucadia Liberty Station Lincoln Acres Lincoln Park Linda Vista Little Italy Logan Heights Mesa College Midway District MiraCosta College Miramar Miramar College Mira Mesa Mission Beach Mission Hills Mission Valley Mountain View Mount Hope Mount Laguna National City Nestor Normal Heights North Park Oak Park Ocean Beach Oceanside Old Town Otay Mesa Pacific Beach Pala Palomar College Palomar Mountain Paradise Hills Pauma Valley Pine Valley Point Loma Point Loma Nazarene Potrero Poway Rainbow Ramona Rancho Bernardo Rancho Penasquitos Rancho San Diego Rancho Santa Fe Rolando San Carlos San Marcos San Onofre Santa Ysabel Santee San Ysidro Scripps Ranch SDSU Serra Mesa Shelltown Shelter Island Sherman Heights Skyline Solana Beach Sorrento Valley Southcrest South Park Southwestern College Spring Valley Stockton Talmadge Temecula Tierrasanta Tijuana UCSD University City University Heights USD Valencia Park Valley Center Vista Warner Springs

San Diego home prices, which rose 9.8% between January 2012 and January 2013, are probably not in a bubble, says economist Kelly Cunningham of the National University System Institute for Policy Research. To reach that conclusion, Cunningham compares the home price increase with jobs growth in 20 metro areas. San Diego's 9.8% gain, 9th among the cities, is in line with 2.5% jobs growth, 8th among cities. On the other hand, Phoenix home values shot up 23.2% in the year, highest among the 20 metro areas, but jobs growth has been only 2.4%, 9th best. Las Vegas prices rose 15.3%, 3rd highest, but jobs growth was 2.3%, 10th highest. By contrast, San Diego's home price increase and jobs growth have "been more or less in step. While buyers should be prudent, it seems likely that the price increases will continue and have not yet become separated from underlying conditions," says Cunningham.

The one argument I have with this study is that Phoenix home prices plunged 55% before recovering, and Las Vegas prices plummeted 62%. So both those cities were coming back from much deeper troughs than San Diego. Its home prices dropped a bit more than 40% at the nadir, and are still down 34.7% from the late 2005 peak.

Comments
8

I agree with you, Don. I call it the "diving board affect." The further down home prices drop, the greater the rise in the recovery. San Diego did not see the kind of drop that other areas did and consequently, we will not be seeing as much of a bounce.

April 3, 2013

Javajoe25: That is often the case. Of course, prices can take a dive and then not recover significantly, too. That occurs when the area is dying economically, or might be so overbuilt that recovery will be a long time coming. Statistics can be misleading, too. When something drops from 10 to 1, then comes back to 2, it rises 100%. Sounds impressive, but it isn't. Best, Don Bauder

April 3, 2013

The point is area housing prices are not yet in "bubble" territory. Prices in San Diego, as well as the rest of coastal California markets, are sustained by highly restricted building regulations. Prices are rising as investors make the bet they can flip the homes or rent them at substantial rates. Therefore it is not difficult to see another bubble forming.

None

April 4, 2013

kellysanmiguel: I agree on both points. Home prices in coastal California are not yet in bubble territory, but could get there. It's not just restrictive building regulations driving prices up; coastal California is a desirable place to live, despite all the whining about high taxes, high cost of living, moderate wages, etc. People will pay to move from Youngstown or Detroit to coastal California. Best, Don Bauder

April 4, 2013

Imho, whenever a politician makes an statement, I get the feeling just the opposite is true.

( unless they are stating the obvious )

April 4, 2013

Murphyjunk: It is true that after politicians have been in office awhile, they can no longer distinguish between truth and fiction. Their response to a question is invariably whatever gets the most votes, whether true or false. Washington DC is a veritable sea of mendacity. Ditto Sacramento. Best, Don Bauder

April 4, 2013

Prices may not be in the stratosphere as before, but I just saw a 1940 two-bedroom house near Windansea Beach in La Jolla with a shredding wood shake roof listed at $2,300,000. And the modest American car parked in the driveway was plastered with bumperstickers for Democrats and progressive initiatives. It's being marketed as a tear-down. The villa-fication continues.

April 5, 2013

monaghan: I am not surprised at the price of the La Jolla tear-down. La Jolla prices have always amazed me. Relatively cheap homes built after World War II command high prices today, although it is true those homes have been maintained very well and usually improved. If you want to see really startling home prices, go to Silicon Valley. San Jose prices are the highest among major metro areas -- by far -- and the homes that fetch more than $1 million will amaze you. Best, Don Bauder

April 6, 2013

Sign in to comment

Sign in

Art Reviews — W.S. Di Piero's eye on exhibits Ask a Hipster — Advice you didn't know you needed Best Buys — San Diego shopping Big Screen — Movie commentary Blurt — Music's inside track Booze News — San Diego spirits City Lights — News and politics Classical Music — Immortal beauty Classifieds — Free and easy Cover Stories — Front-page features Excerpts — Literary and spiritual excerpts Famous Former Neighbors — Next-door celebs Feast! — Food & drink reviews Feature Stories — Local news & stories From the Archives — Spotlight on the past Golden Dreams — Talk of the town Here's the Deal — Chad Deal's watering holes Just Announced — The scoop on shows Letters — Our inbox [email protected] — Local movie buffs share favorites Movie Reviews — Our critics' picks and pans Musician Interviews — Up close with local artists Neighborhood News from Stringers — Hyperlocal news News Ticker — News & politics Obermeyer — San Diego politics illustrated Of Note — Concert picks Out & About — What's Happening Overheard in San Diego — Eavesdropping illustrated Poetry — The old and the new Pour Over — Grab a cup Reader Travel — Travel section built by travelers Reading — The hunt for intellectuals Roam-O-Rama — SoCal's best hiking/biking trails San Diego Beer News — Inside San Diego suds SD on the QT — Almost factual news Set 'em Up Joe — Bartenders' drink recipes Sheep and Goats — Places of worship Special Issues — The best of Sports — Athletics without gush Street Style — San Diego streets have style Suit Up — Fashion tips for dudes Theater Reviews — Local productions Theater antireviews — Narrow your search Tin Fork — Silver spoon alternative Under the Radar — Matt Potter's undercover work Unforgettable — Long-ago San Diego Unreal Estate — San Diego's priciest pads Waterfront — All things ocean Your Week — Daily event picks
4S Ranch Allied Gardens Alpine Baja Balboa Park Bankers Hill Barrio Logan Bay Ho Bay Park Black Mountain Ranch Blossom Valley Bonita Bonsall Borrego Springs Boulevard Campo Cardiff-by-the-Sea Carlsbad Carmel Mountain Carmel Valley Chollas View Chula Vista City College City Heights Clairemont College Area Coronado CSU San Marcos Cuyamaca College Del Cerro Del Mar Descanso Downtown San Diego Eastlake East Village El Cajon Emerald Hills Encanto Encinitas Escondido Fallbrook Fletcher Hills Golden Hill Grant Hill Grantville Grossmont College Guatay Harbor Island Hillcrest Imperial Beach Imperial Valley Jacumba Jamacha-Lomita Jamul Julian Kearny Mesa Kensington La Jolla Lakeside La Mesa Lemon Grove Leucadia Liberty Station Lincoln Acres Lincoln Park Linda Vista Little Italy Logan Heights Mesa College Midway District MiraCosta College Miramar Miramar College Mira Mesa Mission Beach Mission Hills Mission Valley Mountain View Mount Hope Mount Laguna National City Nestor Normal Heights North Park Oak Park Ocean Beach Oceanside Old Town Otay Mesa Pacific Beach Pala Palomar College Palomar Mountain Paradise Hills Pauma Valley Pine Valley Point Loma Point Loma Nazarene Potrero Poway Rainbow Ramona Rancho Bernardo Rancho Penasquitos Rancho San Diego Rancho Santa Fe Rolando San Carlos San Marcos San Onofre Santa Ysabel Santee San Ysidro Scripps Ranch SDSU Serra Mesa Shelltown Shelter Island Sherman Heights Skyline Solana Beach Sorrento Valley Southcrest South Park Southwestern College Spring Valley Stockton Talmadge Temecula Tierrasanta Tijuana UCSD University City University Heights USD Valencia Park Valley Center Vista Warner Springs
Close