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If Congress can't reach a compromise on the 2012/2013 fiscal cliff -- rising taxes, falling spending -- San Diego could lose its expected economic growth in 2013, according to Erik Bruvold of the National University System Institute for Policy Research. He estimates that the San Diego economic output next year could be clipped from $4.3 billion to $5.9 billion. From $2.8 billion to $3.5 billion of the loss could come from rising taxes; $481 million to $761 million could come from reduced domestic spending, and $1.1 billion to $1.7 billion could come from a reduction in defense spending. The National University System Institute for Policy Research earlier estimated that 2012's total output in the county would rise by 3.7% or $6.5 billion to $184.5 billion. A loss of up to $5.9 billion next year could lead to "a fiscal black hole, with impacts much worse than the economic downturn in 2008-2009," says Bruvold.

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