4S Ranch Allied Gardens Alpine Baja Balboa Park Bankers Hill Barrio Logan Bay Ho Bay Park Black Mountain Ranch Blossom Valley Bonita Bonsall Borrego Springs Boulevard Campo Cardiff-by-the-Sea Carlsbad Carmel Mountain Carmel Valley Chollas View Chula Vista City College City Heights Clairemont College Area Coronado CSU San Marcos Cuyamaca College Del Cerro Del Mar Descanso Downtown San Diego Eastlake East Village El Cajon Emerald Hills Encanto Encinitas Escondido Fallbrook Fletcher Hills Golden Hill Grant Hill Grantville Grossmont College Guatay Harbor Island Hillcrest Imperial Beach Imperial Valley Jacumba Jamacha-Lomita Jamul Julian Kearny Mesa Kensington La Jolla Lakeside La Mesa Lemon Grove Leucadia Liberty Station Lincoln Acres Lincoln Park Linda Vista Little Italy Logan Heights Mesa College Midway District MiraCosta College Miramar Miramar College Mira Mesa Mission Beach Mission Hills Mission Valley Mountain View Mount Hope Mount Laguna National City Nestor Normal Heights North Park Oak Park Ocean Beach Oceanside Old Town Otay Mesa Pacific Beach Pala Palomar College Palomar Mountain Paradise Hills Pauma Valley Pine Valley Point Loma Point Loma Nazarene Potrero Poway Rainbow Ramona Rancho Bernardo Rancho Penasquitos Rancho San Diego Rancho Santa Fe Rolando San Carlos San Marcos San Onofre Santa Ysabel Santee San Ysidro Scripps Ranch SDSU Serra Mesa Shelltown Shelter Island Sherman Heights Skyline Solana Beach Sorrento Valley Southcrest South Park Southwestern College Spring Valley Stockton Talmadge Temecula Tierrasanta Tijuana UCSD University City University Heights USD Valencia Park Valley Center Vista Warner Springs

The lead indicators of the San Diego economy, compiled by Alan Gin of the University of San Diego, rose to 109 in March from 108 in February, continuing the uptrend that has been in force since April of 2009. Building permits, initial unemployment claims, stock prices, help wanted advertising, and the national economy all moved in a favorable direction in March. The only indicator falling was consumer confidence.

Comments
8

Sorry, I am still very SKEPTICAL, and do not buy into a recovery, escpecially in San Diego.

I hope I am wrong, but I don't think so.

April 28, 2010

Despite the low consumer confidence levels, there would seem to be a lot of pent-up consumer demand for goods and services. Maybe I'm wrong, but the low local consumer confidence level seems to reflect more on an inability of ordinary people to obtain full-time jobs and credit than on a lack of demand. If demand is low, then we should blame lousy advertising?

Hopefully, WEBA will not be adopted by CPUC as an open-ended wildfire tax on consumers, as this won't do a thing to improve consumer confidence (http://www.cpuc.ca.gov/EFILE/REP/108609.pdf).

April 28, 2010

Response to post #1: The economy is doing better, to be sure, but there are several things to think about: 1. Another wave of foreclosures is almost certainly coming, so housing prices will probably dip again; 2. Commercial real estate keeps getting worse; 3. Too much of the improvement came from either federal programs such as cash for clunkers or the Fed keeping interest rates around zero for the banks, and artificially keeping long rates low by buying up long paper. So both Keynes (fiscal) and Friedman (monetary) look like heroes -- BUT the federal government has to handle its deficit and the Federal Reserve has to repair its tattered balance sheet. There is really no recovery until both the Treasury and the Fed clean up their messes. That could be almost impossible. The capital markets look like they are in a sweet spot. The Fed says it will keep the banks' interest rates at zero until unemployment improves, and it won't for a couple of years. Inflation remains low because the economy is so weak. So liquidity can continue to buoy the stock, bond and commodities market as the Fed keeps issuing money. Wall Street can continue to feast off Main Street's misery -- UNLESS a black swan appears. Or prices get so high that they fall for valuation reasons. (The stock market is about 30% overvalued, for example. It can continue getting more overvalued -- but you never know) Best, Don Bauder

April 28, 2010

Response to post #2: The recovery of stock, bond and commodities markets is helping upscale consumers. That's where much of the consumer improvement lies. And yes, you are absolutely right. The attempt by Sempra to get consumers to pay for Sempra's fire insurance is a disgrace. Best, Don Bauder

April 28, 2010

We're in the market for our first house right now. I've heard that there are a lot of foreclosed properties that banks are withholding from the market, keeping the inventory low and prices level or rising. Anyone else aware of this?

April 28, 2010

Response to post #5: Yes, banks are indeed withholding homes from the market. Some people are living in them without paying their mortgages. Those banks will have to start dumping these homes on the market at some point. You might wait to buy that home. Best, Don Bauder

April 28, 2010

The recovery of stock, bond and commodities markets is helping upscale consumers

And how many jobs has this recovery created-a big fat ZERO. Nada. Nothing.

The feds have proped up the states with so called "stimulas" money-especially CA-so the states can kick their budget deficits down the road. And what has it done?? Again, nothing except keep the gov gravy train rolling, on the backs of honest taxpayers. Who paid for that housing rebate? Car rebate? Large appliance rebate? All of us. Yet we all don't share in the gift.

So now the feds are not only running their OWN budget deficits-they are now running budget deficits for states too-which EVERY American has to pay for.

Time to stop the gimmicks and take our medicine.

If we cut gov employment comp 10%-15% we would be riding a tsunami of propsperity out of this mess.......but stopping the scams is not in the cards im afraid. The JW's and JF's of the world have bribed too many greedy politicians.

April 28, 2010

Response to post #7: The federal government's commitment to bail out the bankrupt states is one reason that the economic growth in this recovery will probably be very slow -- maybe 2% a year. Best, Don Bauder

April 28, 2010

Sign in to comment

Sign in

Art Reviews — W.S. Di Piero's eye on exhibits Ask a Hipster — Advice you didn't know you needed Best Buys — San Diego shopping Big Screen — Movie commentary Blurt — Music's inside track Booze News — San Diego spirits City Lights — News and politics Classical Music — Immortal beauty Classifieds — Free and easy Cover Stories — Front-page features Excerpts — Literary and spiritual excerpts Famous Former Neighbors — Next-door celebs Feast! — Food & drink reviews Feature Stories — Local news & stories From the Archives — Spotlight on the past Golden Dreams — Talk of the town Here's the Deal — Chad Deal's watering holes Just Announced — The scoop on shows Letters — Our inbox [email protected] — Local movie buffs share favorites Movie Reviews — Our critics' picks and pans Musician Interviews — Up close with local artists Neighborhood News from Stringers — Hyperlocal news News Ticker — News & politics Obermeyer — San Diego politics illustrated Of Note — Concert picks Out & About — What's Happening Overheard in San Diego — Eavesdropping illustrated Poetry — The old and the new Pour Over — Grab a cup Reader Travel — Travel section built by travelers Reading — The hunt for intellectuals Roam-O-Rama — SoCal's best hiking/biking trails San Diego Beer — Inside San Diego suds SD on the QT — Almost factual news Set 'em Up Joe — Bartenders' drink recipes Sheep and Goats — Places of worship Special Issues — The best of Sports — Athletics without gush Street Style — San Diego streets have style Suit Up — Fashion tips for dudes Theater Reviews — Local productions Theater antireviews — Narrow your search Tin Fork — Silver spoon alternative Under the Radar — Matt Potter's undercover work Unforgettable — Long-ago San Diego Unreal Estate — San Diego's priciest pads Waterfront — All things ocean Your Week — Daily event picks
4S Ranch Allied Gardens Alpine Baja Balboa Park Bankers Hill Barrio Logan Bay Ho Bay Park Black Mountain Ranch Blossom Valley Bonita Bonsall Borrego Springs Boulevard Campo Cardiff-by-the-Sea Carlsbad Carmel Mountain Carmel Valley Chollas View Chula Vista City College City Heights Clairemont College Area Coronado CSU San Marcos Cuyamaca College Del Cerro Del Mar Descanso Downtown San Diego Eastlake East Village El Cajon Emerald Hills Encanto Encinitas Escondido Fallbrook Fletcher Hills Golden Hill Grant Hill Grantville Grossmont College Guatay Harbor Island Hillcrest Imperial Beach Imperial Valley Jacumba Jamacha-Lomita Jamul Julian Kearny Mesa Kensington La Jolla Lakeside La Mesa Lemon Grove Leucadia Liberty Station Lincoln Acres Lincoln Park Linda Vista Little Italy Logan Heights Mesa College Midway District MiraCosta College Miramar Miramar College Mira Mesa Mission Beach Mission Hills Mission Valley Mountain View Mount Hope Mount Laguna National City Nestor Normal Heights North Park Oak Park Ocean Beach Oceanside Old Town Otay Mesa Pacific Beach Pala Palomar College Palomar Mountain Paradise Hills Pauma Valley Pine Valley Point Loma Point Loma Nazarene Potrero Poway Rainbow Ramona Rancho Bernardo Rancho Penasquitos Rancho San Diego Rancho Santa Fe Rolando San Carlos San Marcos San Onofre Santa Ysabel Santee San Ysidro Scripps Ranch SDSU Serra Mesa Shelltown Shelter Island Sherman Heights Skyline Solana Beach Sorrento Valley Southcrest South Park Southwestern College Spring Valley Stockton Talmadge Temecula Tierrasanta Tijuana UCSD University City University Heights USD Valencia Park Valley Center Vista Warner Springs
Close