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Prices of San Diego existing family homes plummeted 20.5 in March from a year ago, according the Case-Shiller index, published by Standard & Poor's. San Diego prices are down 25.9 percent from the peak in November of 2005. Over the last year, San Diego is fifth worst among the 20 cities whose prices are measured. Las Vegas was the worst with a decline of 25.9 percent; Miami was down 24.6; Phoenix down 23.0 and Los Angeles down 21.7. Of the 20 major cities, prices in 19 declined. The decline for all 20 markets was 14.4 percent, and 14.1 percent for the first quarter. By contrast, the biggest one-year decline in the 1990-1991 housing recession was 2.8 percent.

Comments
6

I stated a 30%-35% decline in home prices from the peak in 05/06....and I am right on target.

I also think this downturn will stay here until 2011 before we see a turn around.

May 27, 2008

Response to post #1: Case-Shiller puts the San Diego peak at November of 2005, but such statistics can vary all over the lot. In any case, with prices having declined 26 percent from the Nov. '05 peak already, you look prescient indeed. I fear that the median house price decline from peak to trough may even exceed your 35 percent figure. There are a lot of variables in this, including government stimulation of housing, Federal Reserve boosting money and credit, movements in the San Diego economy, etc. It appears that the biggest bloodbaths are in low to moderate income places such as Lemon Grove, certain neighborhoods of La Mesa, etc. Best, Don Bauder

May 27, 2008

In the late nineties, everyone was certain that stocks always go up.

In the early naughties, (what DO we call this decade?), everyone was certain that housing prices always go up.

Now it looks like everyone is certain that oil can only go up.

I suspect there is a lot of money to be made if you are contrary enough to ignore what everyone else thinks is a certainty.

May 28, 2008

Response to post #4: Yes, but if you go short in the stock market, you may be absolutely correct -- the stock is a dog, the company is a fraud -- but still lose your shirt only because the longs keep buying. Best, Don Bauder

May 28, 2008

Well some areas are well above 26% (South County, East County) while some havent dropped much (La Jolla, Coronado, Encinitas).

Just shows where the concentration of liar and teaser loans were made. (Not to mention where the concentrations of uninformed borrowers and unscrupulous mortgage brokers).

May 28, 2008

Response to post #5: Yes, the biggest hits are being taken in the low- to middle-income areas. However, there is one area near Rancho Santa Fe that I have heard anecdotally may have some problems. Best, Don Bauder

May 28, 2008

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4S Ranch Allied Gardens Alpine Baja Balboa Park Bankers Hill Barrio Logan Bay Ho Bay Park Black Mountain Ranch Blossom Valley Bonita Bonsall Borrego Springs Boulevard Campo Cardiff-by-the-Sea Carlsbad Carmel Mountain Carmel Valley Chollas View Chula Vista City College City Heights Clairemont College Area Coronado CSU San Marcos Cuyamaca College Del Cerro Del Mar Descanso Downtown San Diego Eastlake East Village El Cajon Emerald Hills Encanto Encinitas Escondido Fallbrook Fletcher Hills Golden Hill Grant Hill Grantville Grossmont College Guatay Harbor Island Hillcrest Imperial Beach Imperial Valley Jacumba Jamacha-Lomita Jamul Julian Kearny Mesa Kensington La Jolla Lakeside La Mesa Lemon Grove Leucadia Liberty Station Lincoln Acres Lincoln Park Linda Vista Little Italy Logan Heights Mesa College Midway District MiraCosta College Miramar Miramar College Mira Mesa Mission Beach Mission Hills Mission Valley Mountain View Mount Hope Mount Laguna National City Nestor Normal Heights North Park Oak Park Ocean Beach Oceanside Old Town Otay Mesa Pacific Beach Pala Palomar College Palomar Mountain Paradise Hills Pauma Valley Pine Valley Point Loma Point Loma Nazarene Potrero Poway Rainbow Ramona Rancho Bernardo Rancho Penasquitos Rancho San Diego Rancho Santa Fe Rolando San Carlos San Marcos San Onofre Santa Ysabel Santee San Ysidro Scripps Ranch SDSU Serra Mesa Shelltown Shelter Island Sherman Heights Skyline Solana Beach Sorrento Valley Southcrest South Park Southwestern College Spring Valley Stockton Talmadge Temecula Tierrasanta Tijuana UCSD University City University Heights USD Valencia Park Valley Center Vista Warner Springs
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