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Roski Wants to Buy Bills or Jags Outright, or Parts of Other Teams Such as Chargers
Response to #44: Another one? I always thought basketball lent itself much too conveniently to point shaving. One or two people can have such a large impact on the final score. It's so easy to miss a free throw, throw away a pass, or just the choice between taking a last shot or letting the clock run out in a game that is already decided, to swing the final score by 4 or 5 points. And of course when I was 5 or 6 my older brothers were sure to repeatedly tell me that all the Dodgers games were fixed, and major league baseball was a show just like professional wrestling!— January 8, 2010 8:52 a.m.
Roski Wants to Buy Bills or Jags Outright, or Parts of Other Teams Such as Chargers
SurfPup said: "NE lost by a hair. I think that Patriots/Giants game was the best SB ever played. " =============================================================== Yes, it was a close game, but New England was a huge favorite (+12) and didn't perform. That raises another interesting tidbit: The betting line has historically been very good at picking super bowl winners. 32 favorites have won out of 44 games. The interesting thing is that 5 of the 12 underdog victors were underdogs by 11 points or more. That means the odds makers are generally right, but when they are wrong they are often badly wrong. In fact, in games where the line is 11 points or greater, the favorites only hold a 6-5 edge. Do you remember when the Chargers made the Super Bowl? They were 18.5 point underdogs to the 49ers, and they couldn't even cover. Now THAT team (the 49ers) was one of the great ones.— January 8, 2010 2:35 a.m.
Roski Wants to Buy Bills or Jags Outright, or Parts of Other Teams Such as Chargers
SurfPup said: "If you look at ALL the teams you listed, like NO, Indy, MN.....they ALL played awful the last month of the season. Not the Chargers, they are peaking perfectly." ======================================================================= My point was that 19 of the last 35 Super Bowl champions can be said to have stumbled going into the playoffs since they lost at least one of their last three regular season games. Historically, riding a large winning streak and "peaking" going into the postseason has not been a strong indicator of Super Bowl success. In fact, the few teams which did enter with long winning streaks were some of the most dominant teams ever. If my memory serves me, they included a couple of the Steelers teams, a couple of the 49ers teams, a New England team and a Dallas team for the longest streaks (still 9 games or less, with the lone exception of New England wining 12). I don't think anybody is mentioning these Chargers as being in that category. That is not to say they won't win, because I don't think anybody is near that level this year.— January 8, 2010 2:08 a.m.
Roski Wants to Buy Bills or Jags Outright, or Parts of Other Teams Such as Chargers
Don Said: "Response to post #33: I think you have to confess that you were wrong in your second paragraph (post #26)." ==================================================== What I meant to say is actually correct, but I definitely could have said it much more clearly. I was talking about super bowl champions, so when I said only 1 team had one their last 11 regular season games, I meant only 1 super bowl championship team had won their last 11 games. I was specifically thinking of New England, because it is widely thought that the stress of trying to maintain their winning streak wore them down. That is why teams like the Colts and the Saints aren't discounted, even though the lost late. For many reasons, they actually preferred a loss or two at the end. Sorry for causing the confusion.— January 8, 2010 1:56 a.m.
Roski Wants to Buy Bills or Jags Outright, or Parts of Other Teams Such as Chargers
Response to #32, Yes, New England won 18 straight and then lost in the Super Bowl. That was the point I was driving at. Having a long winning streak can actually be somewhat draining on a team. New England was thought to be the vastly superior team, yet lost the Super Bowl that year. Losing a few meaningless games at the end of the season is often due to a team playing "vanilla" once they have secured their playoff spot (i.e. nothing but basic formations on both offense and defense so you don't show on film what you really plan on doing when it matters), as well as resting key players.— January 7, 2010 9:04 p.m.
Roski Wants to Buy Bills or Jags Outright, or Parts of Other Teams Such as Chargers
SurfPup said: "Chargers have an excellent defense, and with an 11 game win streak, NO have a 2 or 3 game losing streak, Colts have a 2 game losing streak-the odds for winning it all are most tilted in favor of the Chargers." In the 36 seasons since Miami went undefeated, only ONE team won their last 11 regular season games (New England won their last 12 in 2003). A full 19 Super Bowl champions during that span, however, lost one of their last three games. As for the Chargers "excellent defense", SD is 11th in pts allowed, behind Jets, Cowboys, Ravens, Patriots, Bengals, Packers, Indy and Minnesota. SD 16th in yards allowed, behind Jets, Packers, Ravens, Bengals, Vikings, Cowboys, Patriots, Eagles. SD is 20th against the rush, which is why I don't think they can beat the Vikings if they have to stop Adrian Peterson AND Percy Harvin. The SD defense is probably 9th or 10th out of the 12 playoff teams. As for their offense, yes they are playing pretty well, but that doesn't change the fact that they were 10th in total offense, behind the Saints, Cowboys, Patriots, Vikings, Packers and Colts. The Chargers also played in a horrible division, which helped their stats. The Chargers are good, and deservedly one of the favorites, but they are no juggernaut.— January 7, 2010 4:20 p.m.
Roski Wants to Buy Bills or Jags Outright, or Parts of Other Teams Such as Chargers
SurfPup said: "Although I joke on here at times about putting money where mouth is (in the form of $100 bets)-I am very much against gambling. It is a terrible, and dangerous, vice." ========================================================= Apparently you missed the memo: http://www.catholic.org/national/national_story.p…— January 7, 2010 3:20 p.m.
Roski Wants to Buy Bills or Jags Outright, or Parts of Other Teams Such as Chargers
BTW, Brady getting the comeback player of the year was a joke. Ricky Williams had one of the most impressive and newsworthy comebacks in recent memory, and he did not get a single vote. To be out of football for years, to be considered finished, and then to come back at his age at the level he did was just astounding. What he did was on par with what Kurt Warner did last year. Apparently neither Warner nor Williams received any consideration because they had each done a little too well the year before. They each completed astounding two year comebacks, but that doesn't count. After Williams, Vince Young deserved it well before Brady.— January 7, 2010 8:52 a.m.
Roski Wants to Buy Bills or Jags Outright, or Parts of Other Teams Such as Chargers
By no means do I think San Diego is a lock. With the way they are playing, the fact they are reasonably healthy and the fact they get a bye and then a home game, they have just about as good a shot as anybody. I give them roughly a 40% chance of making it to the Super Bowl. I give the Colts a 45% chance, since they are also well rested and will play the Chargers at home. It might be closer to 45% and 50%, since the rest of the field in the AFC doesn't scare anybody. The Patriots are +550 based mostly on sentiment, not what they have done this year. Nobody else has any shot in the AFC. The NFC is different, because neither the Vikings nor the Saints is a proven winner in big games, and every other team is capable of an effort that could beat anybody. Even the Cardinals (with the worst record) scare teams, because when they are on they can't be stopped. If the Chargers make it to the Super Bowl against the Vikings, I think that they are in trouble. Against anybody else, I like their chances.— January 7, 2010 8:31 a.m.
Roski Wants to Buy Bills or Jags Outright, or Parts of Other Teams Such as Chargers
SP said: Good call MiM on the SuperBowl match up with the Chargers and CowGirls. Don said: Response to post #5: If you're so sure, why don't you put $100,000 on that spread? Cowboys are +$1,200 to win. Pretty nice odds if you believe in them, although not many do. Saints are +$400 and Vikings are +$600. Dallas would have to beat Philly first, then beat both the Saints and the Vikings on the road just to get there. That is just not going to happen. The Chargers scenario is much more plausible, which is why they are only paying +$350— January 7, 2010 1 a.m.