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Rate of Home Price Declines Continues Dropping
It is tough to see the economy really recovering anytime soon. Between an irresponsible, or oblivious government spending money it does not have for non-wealth creating purposes, the expectation of higher taxes and demonizing success by the political class, and a residential and commercial real estate market that has far too much debt relative to equity, you have to wonder about a positive economic future. Real estate prices ultimately have to have a relationship to the income of those who purchase it. In the case of residential properties it is the salary of those who purchase it. In the case of commercial real estate, including rental homes/apartments, it is the income the property generates relative to the cost to purchase it. In neither case, is the current economic situation likely to improve the market. On top of all this, you need to add the number of homes, about 25%, where the owners owe more than the current value of the property to realize that an actual real estate improvement will take a fair amount of time. As far as having a successful government loan modification program, I will take the lottery odds, which is another government enterprise. What is happening to many of these homeowners is sad, as our homes are usually our biggest investment and where we live and have our family memories. Unfortunately, the government is incapable of dealing with such a complex problem where you almost need a custom solution for each situation.— November 26, 2009 10:45 p.m.
Local Lead Indicators Continue Rising
I do not see how consumer sentiment can be positive. Asides from the excessive debt that many households have, there is very little job security, non-existent pay raises and a government at all levels that is spending money that it does not have. We will probably have higher taxes in the near future, which reduces take home pay. One way to survive a very uncertain future is by minimizing fixed costs (debt, mortgage, etc.) today and increasing savings.— October 30, 2009 8:19 p.m.
Local Lead Indicators Continue Rising
"You can point your finger at corporations, too: grossly excessive chief executive salaries have done more to harm capitalism than Karl Marx ever did." It is unfortunate that CEO pay has increased exponentially the last 25 years, particularly when it often has nothing to do the corporation's performance. There appears to be a CEO club that protects its members--no matter whether they have a successful or disastrous track record, they seem to be hired at new companies. In addition to CEO pay, two other segments that have also increased their compensation at a much greater rate than most of society are: entertainment/sports and the public sector--though to a much lesser degree. The characteristics of these groups is that they have a near monopoly bargaining position because they are competing within their own segment and not with the overall economy. They only compare their compensation to others in the same narrow market segment. Also the people who ultimately pay these salaries are often not aware that they pay them and the boards/politicians have more to gain by giving in than by taking an adversarial position. Many boards are controlled by the chairman and elected officials do not want the unions against them. Besides they personally benefit because the same benefits apply to them.— October 30, 2009 8:03 p.m.
Local Lead Indicators Continue Rising
Thank you for pointing out that Wall Street has done significant damage to this country in particular and to capitalism in general. There is economic value in some of the hedge instruments that corporations and investors use to bound risk. However, much of what Wall Streets does appears to be creating complex instruments that no one understands but generate fees without creating any wealth or improving market efficiency. Wall Street is about privilege, special access and insider trading, which is the antithesis of free market capitalism and classical liberalism. The more power and money that government controls, the more corruption it creates. Every well-connected person or organization will be asking for special treatment or sweetheart deals. A Fortune article I read yesterday about Google's close relationship with the Obama administration said that three biggest corporate contributors to the Obama campaign were: (1) Microsoft; (2) Goldman Sachs; and (3) Google. Just look at all the special deals in the "stimulus" bill, such as the Gore-connected company in Finland that received millions to develop an $80,000 electric sports car.— October 28, 2009 11:33 p.m.
San Diego Home Prices Rose in August; Values Down 38.7% from Peak
A question I have is whether the price increase reflects an improvement in the real estate market or simply a different mix of house/neighborhood sales. The data may not be readily available, but a better market indicator would be adjusted by neighborhood and housing quality. If the percentage of home sales in coastal north county is higher in the data period and the percentage in south county is lower, the average price would appear to be higher even if the market were still dropping. There are many newer expensive homes that have adjustable mortgages that the owners may not be able to afford in today's economy.— October 27, 2009 11 p.m.
Local Lead Indicators Continue Rising
I think the political class is at best clueless and incompetent. At worse, they know what they are doing and do not care about the future beyond the next election and their personal well being and power. There is no way anyone, city, state or country can continue to borrow money and spend it non-wealth creating activities without negative long-term consequences. We seem to be living in a house of cards and I have no idea how it will end and how to prepare for it. It is funny that the liberal media is trumpeting the statistics that indicate growth and conservative talk radio saying that there is no recovery until unemployment improves. Both were saying exactly the opposite when a Republican was president.— October 27, 2009 10:38 p.m.