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Stocks Plunge; Insurance Giant AIG May Be Next Casualty. Era of Excessive Debt Probably Coming to Inglorious End

I'm no economist, but the math logician in me says that all Wall Street models have changed enough just in the last week that wise people must realize we are in "long run" territory with so many changed variables (with a few of the "constants" no longer existing), and nobody has map and compass, least of all either presidential candidate or their invested political advisors. Based on observing the technical numbers, this week may be a bottom-indicating capitulation... or stepping back and squinting harder, it may just signal the beginnings of systemic "honesty" with additional downside moves, where investors get a revealing look through enforced diligence of more precisely who has been playing with subprimal derivative paper and other exotics for years... and has been too afraid to own up to it until now. There are many expert complaints that this week's apparent capitulation was merely triggered by a ratings downgrade that forced onerous cashflow requirements onto the new loser institutions... and this may be absolutely true from their view. This view however relies on too many assumptions of statistical safety, many of which lost credibility or were shown to be utterly false as self-preserving "fear" became the prime driver in the markets. Right now, people across America are being told that AIG subsidiary insurance is still good and people are still covered, so don't panic... unless there is an incident complex of national significance that opens the floodgates on legitimate claims in numbers that the actuaries simply do not foresee. The assumption of good news is based on there NOT being earthquakes, hurricanes or firestorms that open the floodgates, and this is NOT a safe assumption. In fact, it can be argued that individual state laws over insurance companies not holding cash above preset levels actually works against consumers in periods where claims exceed actuarial prediction. Where are the actuaries who predicted that the markets would be where they are today? The thought of many neighborhoods that were carpet-bombed with door-to-door Primerica "neutron loans" is somewhat chilling, where there is still a large number that have not gone off yet. The people who are the collateral damaged are not actually gone; they're just now in a lower socio-economic class where they won't be homebuyers or major appliance consumers until after the Mayan calendar resets or the end of the age. At least, that's my model.
— September 18, 2008 9:03 a.m.

Union-Tribune obituary Allard Roen omits mob connections

I have no complaint about Judge Sabraw. In fact, I see him whittling down the defendants' future appeal issues in a case where government prosecutors have been handicapped by (1) old federal regulations that restrict the government's ability to test debris for regulated asbestos containing material, (2) the same regulations adopted under federal rule-making to use essentially outmoded science that undercounts the smallest asbestos fibers to defendants' advantage (at least one recent law review article was published because of these two issues in this case), and (3) an absence of other guiding case opinions in the relatively new area of National Emissions Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants (NESHAP) law that would make nailing down this case just that much easier. Judge Sabraw has moved delicately in his orders to avoid the appearence of "legislating from the bench"... or at least that's my otherwise-ignorant no-law-school take on things. The federal agents, investigators and prosecutors have been and remain my heroes in this. In the neighborhood, make that "our heroes." More than a few of us have the FBI on speeddial, and among us all, we only have nice things to say... because those nice things are deserved. In a way, it's kind of like watching the Chargers in the early part of the season. There are no blowout losses, and we're just waiting for the rest of what should be a winning trip to post-season play.
— September 16, 2008 12:42 p.m.

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