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San Diegans on bringing in the feds
The middle class is not yet destroyed. It's on its way though... Technological advances DID make boodles of money for a few, but not so much for those of us who actually created it. Most of the profits went to upper managers and investors. Jeff, what you may be failing to see is the moral aspect of this. Parasitic traders, not actually needed in any sense in the creation or delivery of goods or services, weasel their way into the middle to exact rents from the productive members of society. Financial intermediation, according to Wall Street's defenders, is essential to our modern economy and day to day life. That justifies them taking such enormous slices of our production. Some estimates of finance's share of the US economy have gone as high as 40%. All of us who produce goods of real value, rather than merely trading contracts on speculation, are paying that extra 40%. We don't mind paying something for the lubricating effects of liquid markets...but it seems that today it's far out of proportion to what's needed or appropriate. Worse, a lot of us suspect that a lot of that 40% is frothy nonsense, fake money, no basis in reality...but we're still expected to pay off the financiers as if it represented something real. (Municipal finance is an under-recognized player in this scam...for example see: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jefferson_County,_Al…) We're on the hook to pay for something that was never real...just a bunch of guys gambling with each other (sometimes with our pension funds) who now expect us to bail out the losers AND allow the cheating winners to keep all their ill-got-gain. The middle class must pay for this, by actually producing something of value. This is not a financial question or an economic question so much as it's a moral question. Classical economists, as you know, were moral philosophers. We need that type of insight to understand why the 99% are beginning to find their voice and protest against this immoral system. Best, Fred— October 18, 2011 7:32 a.m.
Harrisburg, Pa. Files for Bankruptcy
Implications: The failure of the SAP implementation was very predictable. Vague requirements from the city were met with an insistence by the vendor that only rare customizations be made to the standard SAP system. The city staff then made everything "rare" and the work fell to pieces. The vendor sued and got a settlement. So SAP itself was brought in to rescue this turkey, and they're still working on it. Now that the OneSD project cost and schedule has multiplied many times, there's a strong likelihood that it will be "ninety percent done" indefinitely (you geeks know what I mean). Key facts: * It's in the interests of the people building the system to make the project last forever. You can't get paid more than when working for government IT projects. * It's in the city staff's interests to keep this project running forever, as long as they delay it they keep their jobs intact and have more opportunities to insert inefficiencies into the system. * It's in the city management's interests to delay implementation as long as possible. If this SAP system actually works, and is set up honestly, it will show that the city finances are even worse than has already been reported. Yet eventually, enough of the system will be cobbled together (geeks can be determined, just wanting to make stuff work) to start showing results that will be leaked to investors, who will dump San Diego issued muni bonds. This will finally force the long delayed accounting San Diego's so-called leadership so dreads. I don't know WHEN this will happen, but I'm pretty sure it will involve these elements in the overall tragic story of San Diego's economic implosion.— October 16, 2011 1:45 a.m.
Harrisburg, Pa. Files for Bankruptcy
Don, in Makopolis' book, "Nobody Would Listen", he mentions in passing that municipal finance is the next Madoff-like event... http://www.amazon.com/No-One-Would-Listen-Financi… There are many others who agree: “The finances of some state and local governments are so distressed that some analysts say they are reminded of the run-up to the subprime mortgage meltdown or of the debt crisis hitting nations in Europe." http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/warning-muni-bond-… Moody's said that it was assigning a negative outlook to the entire $2.6 trillion (£1.8 trillion) US municipal bond sector – operated by local town, city and state governments – because of the combined collapse in the financial and housing markets. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/b… We both know that after the SEC investigation and Kroll copy/paste job on San Diego's bond fraud, that the only thing that's really changed is that they're installing an SAP based system to monitor the city's finances: http://www.zdnet.com/blog/projectfailures/san-die… http://www.kpbs.org/news/2011/sep/26/san-diegos-l… http://www.sddpc.org/ (says how wonderful they are) According to dice.com, a reliable high-end IT jobs site, they're still looking for key team members to work on this SAP project: http://seeker.dice.com/jobsearch/results/US/SAP/2… Enough background, next post = implications.— October 16, 2011 1:33 a.m.
San Diego unions push transaction tax
Jeff, I concur. The Euro in its current form, from my perspective, is toast. Whether that means the dollar retains value (not from choice but necessity as a safe haven) instead of being debased...difficult to say. Is there an alternative replacement currency (not gold) where those in need of monetary transactions (not just investors) could turn which is large enough and fluid enough to suit the needs of economic life? We all know fiat money is based on trust...and it seems to me today that the real trust is in online transactions. Having to deal with so many debasement prone currencies makes life unnecessarily complicated for those who make and own such systems. The question arises as to whether solely online nominal representations of value based on trust aren't more sustainable without governmental interference... Hmmmm.....— October 16, 2011 1:18 a.m.
San Diego unions push transaction tax
Re: Snark Don, this is an outstanding example of "snark"...read the captions as you click through the photos. http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/arts/celebrit…— October 16, 2011 1:09 a.m.
Bra Fitting
After 45 years on this planet, it's only now that I find I missed my one true calling in life: Certified Bra-Fit Specialist Listen to me young men reading this...don't be like me, squandering your talents on computers. It'll never be rewarding or satisfying compared to this job. Don't follow my path, wasting your potential, when you could be absorbed in your work, walking to the office with a spring in your step every day. Alas, it's too late for me, my path is set. But for you unemployed young men with a hands on approach to your work and true feeling for complicated structural engineering...don't neglect this opportunity to follow your dreams! With deep regret, Fred "Forlorn" Williams (P.s. Yes...I'm trying to be funny. Sorry if that offends any of you...lighten up and please don't post about what a pig I am. Unless you can make it funny too, that would be great.)— October 5, 2011 2:53 a.m.
San Diego unions push transaction tax
I'm bringing wisdom and dignity? Oh no! I'll do my best to stop that. From now on I'm only writing fart jokes... :-)— September 29, 2011 8:16 a.m.
Alfred Rappaport and Todd Buchholz take sides on risk-taking
That's the most important point. Skill, hard work, character, intelligence...nice to have, but it's far far better to have good luck. Being born into a rich family is probably the best luck of all, especially in America. Being hard working, honest, diligent, and productive doesn't get you anywhere near as far as a large helping of luck in this world. Cognitive scientists have repeatedly described the blindness of the lucky, who uniformly ascribe their success to their own efforts. That's why reading any business "success" book is a waste of time. Unless you get lucky in the exact same way, you're never going to get the results promised. You can never control luck, which family or country you got born into, or so many other factors in the world...you can only attempt to control yourself, but taking only your own actions into account leaves out the rest of the world's near complete influence over you and your fortune. As Epictetus would explain, "that alone is in our power, which is our own work; and in this class are our opinions, impulses, desires, and aversions. What, on the contrary, is not in our power, are our bodies, possessions, glory, and power. Any delusion on this point leads to the greatest errors, misfortunes, and troubles, and to the slavery of the soul." (summary copied from wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epictetus)— September 29, 2011 7:55 a.m.
Alfred Rappaport and Todd Buchholz take sides on risk-taking
Well, Jeff, I just re-read Taleb's Black Swan and it's fresh in my mind, but I suppose I could quote some Candide to make the same essential points about epistemological arrogance..., yet as a devout evangelical atheist, I like to turn to Ecclesiastes: * The race is not to the swift, nor the battle to the strong. * A man hath no better thing under the sun, than to eat, and to drink, and to be merry. * Wine maketh merry: but money answereth all things. * All is vanity and vexation of spirit. * The words of the wise are as goads. * He that increaseth knowledge increaseth sorrow. Or I could quote MCPO Gaylor of Fighter Squadron 211, who told all us young squids: "I've already ****ing forgotten more than you'll ever learn, you little ****heads, and I guaran-God-****-tee I don't know **** all. I just know I don't know ****. So remember you're not the one ****ing this horse, you're just holding it's head. You ain't in charge of this cluster**** and never will be. Keep your head on a swivel, hang on tight, but be ready to jump out of my God**** way when you hear abandon ship." (Hmmm...was there any point I was making, or am I just writing this to amuse myself now? Yeah, okay, that was fun...)— September 29, 2011 7:39 a.m.
Alfred Rappaport and Todd Buchholz take sides on risk-taking
Buchholz is absolutely correct in his prescriptions...but only for himself and those just like him. For those who don't share his characteristics, however, his advice is interesting but irrelevant. Nassim Taleb points this out in his criticism of the self-help and business success genre of airport bookstore offerings. All of the authors are correct...but only for their individual cases, so you're best off ignoring their advice and just reading the books as collections of anecdotes. Remember, only the "success" stories tend to get told. In the real world, however, we could all learn a lot more by looking into how people fail. If you want to avoid killing yourself driving a car, you should study how accidents happen, and learn about avoiding them. Focusing only on how to drive as fast as possible, learning solely from the rare racer who has a lucky enough career to tell the tale, is a recipe for disaster for most of us. Best, Fred— September 28, 2011 9:44 p.m.