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Fred_Williams's avatar

Fred Williams

The Stock Market Roller Coaster

Let me help you out. As a libertarian, you ought to appreciate this: http://www.thefreemanonline.org/featured/governme… Refried, I'm not trying to insult you...I honestly cannot parse what you're trying to say. I cannot follow the thread of your argument at all. Sometimes when people are drinking or high they write stuff that they think is brilliant, but later it makes no sense. I just figured that was the case here, since you seem to think you're making great points, but I don't think anyone is following along with your line of thought.
— January 8, 2012 10:18 a.m.

The Stock Market Roller Coaster

1. Agreed. Humans invented religion. Morality, however, exists completely independent of religion. 2. Adam Smith emphasized human SYMPATHY in his writings, not selfishness, as the wellspring of the wealth of nations. When he referenced an "Invisible Hand" it was to show the existence of unintended consequences, both good and evil...NOT to prove that greed is ultimately converted into good. This is the fundamental misunderstanding of Smith that I'm discussing above, so I'm not sure why you say I cannot grasp his philosophy. As to the point you mixed into #3 about local manufacturing, I think you might be confusing Smith with Ricardo (comparative advantage). Still, what's your point? That wealthy people are more generous than the poor? Hardly...I think you and I have both seen the opposite. 3. Nope. I referenced Hayek's Nobel speech because I DON'T agree with the "pretense of knowledge" that goes along with bogus attempts to reduce human activity to neat equations. The "quants" had their day, and messed up big time. I'm not a follower of Keynesian, neo-Keynsian, Chicago, Austrian, or ANY of the schools of economic fashion. I can quote them, as the devil quotes scripture, but don't believe in any of them. NOBODY knows what makes the economy work, and anyone (like your friend Jeff) who claims to have a wizard-like understanding of events is simply deluding themselves. Just like a gambler with a "system" to beat the house at roulette, but far worse because they don't even have the ludic crutch to rest on. (Ludic Fallacy is a great term coined by Taleb -- fun to use when debunking the quants.) My sole advantage is that I recognize that I'm ignorant. I have never bought stocks because I could never understand how things allegedly worked in that world...and now we all see that the snake-oil salesmen didn't understand it either, but just parroted fancy sounding theories based on erroneous models. I'm proud to say that the reason it never made sense to me was that it never made sense in the real world. But that doesn't mean I have the answers either, just lots of questions and deep scepticism of the received wisdom that masquerades as knowledge. If you go back to my point above, I was asking a straightforward question...where is the evidence of this religious notion of an Invisible Hand? I still see none except from those who misunderstand what Adam Smith was talking about when he used the term in the first place. Was your apple farm example supposed to give me evidence of the Invisible Hand, or do you agree that it's just a faith-based notion that we can dismiss since it's no more reliable or useful to understanding the actual working of economics than believing in Leprechauns and Unicorns? So, please, my friend, tell me if you can think of any evidence for the Invisible Hand (and quoting Smith, as I've shown, won't pass the laugh test). (And thanks for engaging in a good discussion. I appreciate it.)
— January 8, 2012 8:40 a.m.

The Stock Market Roller Coaster

The religious faith that does most harm to the world goes like this: "The Invisible Hand will turn all economic actions into something good for society. Amen!" This is the faith of our modern age, a blind faith in markets, a faith that continued growth of GDP is all we need to solve all our problems, a faith that markets always find the proper price and act as an honest measurement of value. This faith, unwarranted, is so ingrained in the world today that hardly anyone questions it. But why is growth ALWAYS good? WHERE is the proof of this "Invisible Hand" making things turn out for the best in this world. (Has there ever been a more ridiculously Panglossian belief?) WHY do we believe in this, implicitly, and dare not question it? If anybody running for public office dares to question this faith that the market is always right, their career is finished. Can you imagine what would happen to a business leader who said, "No, I think we have enough money and we'll just keep things as they are. Maybe not make so much profit, but we won't be firing people either." My friends, let's skip the whole religion discussion (fun though it is) and address this instead. Why do people, powerful people running our governments and biggest corporations, believe in an "Invisible Hand"? I assert that this belief is: 1. Unfounded. There's no proof of the Invisible Hand whatsoever. 2. Dangerous. This erroneous belief leads to any number of outrages against morality, our environment, and our children's future. 3. Used against us all. The market is worshipped more fervently in America than any god...and is used just as cynically by the psychopaths to loot the wealth of the nation. Care to comment?
— January 7, 2012 7 p.m.

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