Brian Maryott Congressional campaign headquartered in same Oceanside complex as Chris Rodriguez mayoral campaign.

“The Republican party asked me to run against [Congressman] Mike Levin in 2020.” That’s what Oceanside city councilman Christopher Rodriguez said two years ago when the Latino ex-Marine who served in Iraq was viewed as a GOP up-and-comer.

“I turned them down,” says Rodriguez about his party’s request for him to represent the GOP in Congress. “I just felt I had too much to do for the city of Oceanside.”

Rodriguez could win a kind of electoral lottery this September.

Rodriguez for Congress

So Rodriguez instead ran for mayor of Oceanside. He was trounced in November by fellow councilmember Esther Sanchez who topped him with an 11 percent spread. Rodriguez retains his city council seat.

Rodriguez, a father of seven and a real estate agent who bills himself as a farmer, has just decided to run to unseat Levin in the 49th Congressional District which includes South Orange County and North San Diego County. But he now does so without the blessing of the GOP machinery. High-profile elected Republicans are supporting former San Juan Capistrano mayor Brian Maryott to take out Levin. Longtime Carlsbad mayor Matt Hall as well as his colleagues on the Oceanside city council (Peter Weiss and Ryan Keim) both want Maryott over Rodriguez.

Maryott lost to Levin by six percentage points in the 2020 general election. Yet Maryott would seem to have greater name recognition in the 49th congressional district than Rodriguez. Maryott won 181,157 votes for Congress, more than 11 times the votes Rodriguez got for his mayoral quest in that same November election. And Maryott would seem to have a native son advantage in the Orange County cities in Congressional District 49, which include San Clemente, Dana Point, and San Juan Capistrano.

But Rodriguez could win a kind of electoral lottery this September, some nine months before the June 2022 primary: Incumbent Mike Levin and challenger Brian Maryott could find themselves cut out of the congressional district they want to represent.

The California Citizens Redistricting Commission meets once every ten years to redraw the state's assembly, state senate, and congressional districts. California’s lagging population growth caused the state to lose one of its 53 seats. In September the commission will start working on the boundaries of the new 52 congressional districts.

Brian Maryott: Will the GOP favorite be painted as an Orange County interloper?

Maryott for Congress

About two-thirds of the voters in the current CD-49 live in the North County cities of Oceanside, Carlsbad, Encinitas, and Vista. The other third who vote in Orange County are separated from their southern district mates by 125,000 acres of Camp Pendleton, the world's largest Marine Corps base.

Is it possible the newly created 49th congressional seat would focus on just North County and move the Orange County cities in with other cities in their own county?

From 2002 to 2012 CD-49 was a North County-based district with no Orange County voters at all. That district was more horizontal than its current vertical configuration. The 49th from ten years ago included Fallbrook, Valley Center, Julian, and some cities in southwest Riverside County.

If CD-49 loses its Orange County cities again, San Clemente-based Mike Levin and San Juan Capistrano’s Brian Maryott would be squeezed out of their own district. Both Levin and Maryott could still run in the new district since residency is not required to serve in the House of Representatives. In fact Darrell Issa survived carpetbagger charges when he was elected to the 50th congressional district last year even though he was not a resident of the 50th.

A North County-only CD-49 may help Levin.

ABC News

If such a realignment were to occur, it would seem to give Rodriguez a boost, since he could say he is the only true major candidate on the ballot, not an interloper from Orange County. Rodriguez could claim that North San Diego County people have an entirely different lifestyle than those who live on the other side of the Orange Curtain, and that Vista, for instance, has nothing in common with San Juan Capistrano.

But how realistic is it that the redistricting commission would in fact try to keep CD-49 mostly a North County sector as it was 10 years ago?

Fredy Ceja is the spokesman for the California Citizens Redistricting Commission. He said by phone that honoring county lines is “super important” to the commission as it sets out to redraw the statewide map. The commission must make sure that all 52 new districts have the same population. He says it must seek to “minimize divisions of counties, cities, neighborhoods, and communities of interest.”

In fact, Ceja welcomes all statewide voters to weigh in with their input by contacting the commission directly at www.wedrawthelinesca.org. He says that if North County residents want their own district again, free of Orange County influence, they need only to let the commission know. “They can even send in their own map,” says Ceja. He says the commission wants to hear all points of view. He says the commission is composed of five Republicans, five Democrats and four independents.

Rodriguez could conceivably get his followers to weigh in on the commission's website with a locals-only, North County-focused campaign. “Redistricting will impact campaigns across the state on both sides,” Rodriguez says by email. “I’m ready for every scenario.”

But what then would incumbent Levin and challenger Maryott do? Levin’s spokesperson Eric Mee said by phone that should the new district exclude Orange County, Congressman Levin would move to North County.

Maryott’s campaign did not respond.

A North County-only CD-49 may help Levin since voters from Orange County skewed more heavily Republican than voters from North San Diego County in recent elections. Levin flipped CD-49 in 2018. Republican Darrell Issa was North County’s congressman from 2000 through 2018.

Meanwhile the Maryott for Congress campaign has set up its North County headquarters in the same downtown Oceanside complex that housed the Rodriguez for Mayor headquarters last year. That glassed storefront on the 400 block of North Coast Highway is just northwest of the Oceanside city hall complex. Its Florida-based landlord Elliot LaBreche says the decision to rent to the Maryott campaign should not be interpreted as a preference of Maryott over Rodriguez. “I like them both,” he says. “They are both quality people.” He says the Maryott campaign is leasing the space at "full market value."

A separate commission is deciding how the five county supervisor districts will be reconfigured. A Democratic candidate to challenge 5th District supervisor Republican Jim Desmond has not yet been identified. Oceanside mayor Esther Sanchez says she has no plans to run. "I want to keep focusing on making Oceanside a better place.” Carlsbad Councilwoman Cori Schumacher, who was expected to announce, is dealing with a threatened recall. Desmond’s 2018 Democratic challenger was Michelle Gomez. Gomez recently filed for bankruptcy seeking protection from creditors who worked on that 2018 campaign and who claimed they were not paid.

Retired USMC Colonel Doug Applegate ran against Darryl Issa in Issa’s final run for CD-49 in 2016. Issa’s poor showing (he beat Applegate with only 0.6 percent of the vote) was thought to have contributed to Issa’s decision to not run for re-election in 2018. Applegate says he would not be running again for Congress. “I am disinclined to do another tour in D.C.,” referring to his military service. Applegate did not rule in or rule out a run against Desmond.