Quantcast
4S Ranch Allied Gardens Alpine Baja Balboa Park Bankers Hill Barrio Logan Bay Ho Bay Park Black Mountain Ranch Blossom Valley Bonita Bonsall Borrego Springs Boulevard Campo Cardiff-by-the-Sea Carlsbad Carmel Mountain Carmel Valley Chollas View Chula Vista City College City Heights Clairemont College Area Coronado CSU San Marcos Cuyamaca College Del Cerro Del Mar Descanso Downtown San Diego Eastlake East Village El Cajon Emerald Hills Encanto Encinitas Escondido Fallbrook Fletcher Hills Golden Hill Grant Hill Grantville Grossmont College Guatay Harbor Island Hillcrest Imperial Beach Imperial Valley Jacumba Jamacha-Lomita Jamul Julian Kearny Mesa Kensington La Jolla Lakeside La Mesa Lemon Grove Leucadia Liberty Station Lincoln Acres Lincoln Park Linda Vista Little Italy Logan Heights Mesa College Midway District MiraCosta College Miramar Miramar College Mira Mesa Mission Beach Mission Hills Mission Valley Mountain View Mount Hope Mount Laguna National City Nestor Normal Heights North Park Oak Park Ocean Beach Oceanside Old Town Otay Mesa Pacific Beach Pala Palomar College Palomar Mountain Paradise Hills Pauma Valley Pine Valley Point Loma Point Loma Nazarene Potrero Poway Rainbow Ramona Rancho Bernardo Rancho Penasquitos Rancho San Diego Rancho Santa Fe Rolando San Carlos San Marcos San Onofre Santa Ysabel Santee San Ysidro Scripps Ranch SDSU Serra Mesa Shelltown Shelter Island Sherman Heights Skyline Solana Beach Sorrento Valley Southcrest South Park Southwestern College Spring Valley Stockton Talmadge Temecula Tierrasanta Tijuana UCSD University City University Heights USD Valencia Park Valley Center Vista Warner Springs

Future-future-future bets

The Box checks up on odds changes as posted by this Vegas casino over a four-month period.
The Box checks up on odds changes as posted by this Vegas casino over a four-month period.

On June 7, the Golden Nugget Casino released their annual “College Football Games of the Year” point spreads. The Golden Nugget’s sports book offered point spreads on 250 games starting August 29 with UNLV at Minnesota (-13) and ending December 14 with Army vs. Navy (-9).

So, I picked a random football week from the Golden Nugget’s menu (October 17–19), and laid out the 17 games GN listed along with their point spreads. Finished with a promise to come back on October 17 to see how their June 7 spreads held up.

So, here we are. One of life’s few certainties is that things change. Always. But, the question before us is, how much? It’s 132 days from June 7 to October 17, almost 19 weeks, or four and a half months. When the spreads were first posted, players hadn’t begun preseason camp. College football teams are constantly in flux: players come and go, transfer, drop out, try out. What about injuries? What about those new recruits who were so loved last winter?

Golden Nugget college football spreads

According to the Aztecs football website, San Diego State has 99 players on their roster and 11 coaches on the payroll. We’ll assume those numbers are typical. There are 17 games on the Golden Nugget’s list this week — that’s 34 teams. So, multiply 34 teams by 110 players and coaches and you get 3740 people involved in this week’s college games.

How many changes, do you suppose, have been made to those 34 teams since June 7? Arkansas, Auburn, California, Oregon, and USC have new head coaches this year. Normally, new head coaches bring their people with them, which means new assistant coaches. More changes.

One thinks about the insane number of variables that come with 3740 personhoods over a four-month period. Players get injured and can’t play. Players are arrested and can’t play. Players get bored and don’t want to play. Players decide to quit football and star in a Broadway musical. Coaches decide to hustle a better job. There’s divorce. Marriage. Death. Bankruptcy. DUIs. Illness. Domestic turmoil. How can you possibly predict a point spread four months into the future?

Pictured on the left are the Golden Nugget’s June 7 and current spreads.

What’s creepy is how little the spreads have changed. Louisville lost ½ point. Arizona State lost 2 points. Alabama lost 2 points. There were two double-digit changes: Texas A&M lost 12 points, and LSU picked up 10 points. One team, Miami, picked up enough points, 7½, to get a bettor’s attention. Everybody else is in the 6½- to ½-point range. You can make an argument that the right ½ point is enough to turn a bet, and a 3½-point change is huge. But still...

Here's something you might be interested in.
Submit a free classified
or view all

Previous article

Mostra Coffee is finally caffeinating 4S Ranch

Local micro roaster of the year replaces a boring chain coffeeshop
Next Article

Jorge Hank's wealthy nephew heads for White House dinner

Tijuana billionaire's relative an AMLO invite
The Box checks up on odds changes as posted by this Vegas casino over a four-month period.
The Box checks up on odds changes as posted by this Vegas casino over a four-month period.

On June 7, the Golden Nugget Casino released their annual “College Football Games of the Year” point spreads. The Golden Nugget’s sports book offered point spreads on 250 games starting August 29 with UNLV at Minnesota (-13) and ending December 14 with Army vs. Navy (-9).

So, I picked a random football week from the Golden Nugget’s menu (October 17–19), and laid out the 17 games GN listed along with their point spreads. Finished with a promise to come back on October 17 to see how their June 7 spreads held up.

So, here we are. One of life’s few certainties is that things change. Always. But, the question before us is, how much? It’s 132 days from June 7 to October 17, almost 19 weeks, or four and a half months. When the spreads were first posted, players hadn’t begun preseason camp. College football teams are constantly in flux: players come and go, transfer, drop out, try out. What about injuries? What about those new recruits who were so loved last winter?

Golden Nugget college football spreads

According to the Aztecs football website, San Diego State has 99 players on their roster and 11 coaches on the payroll. We’ll assume those numbers are typical. There are 17 games on the Golden Nugget’s list this week — that’s 34 teams. So, multiply 34 teams by 110 players and coaches and you get 3740 people involved in this week’s college games.

How many changes, do you suppose, have been made to those 34 teams since June 7? Arkansas, Auburn, California, Oregon, and USC have new head coaches this year. Normally, new head coaches bring their people with them, which means new assistant coaches. More changes.

One thinks about the insane number of variables that come with 3740 personhoods over a four-month period. Players get injured and can’t play. Players are arrested and can’t play. Players get bored and don’t want to play. Players decide to quit football and star in a Broadway musical. Coaches decide to hustle a better job. There’s divorce. Marriage. Death. Bankruptcy. DUIs. Illness. Domestic turmoil. How can you possibly predict a point spread four months into the future?

Pictured on the left are the Golden Nugget’s June 7 and current spreads.

What’s creepy is how little the spreads have changed. Louisville lost ½ point. Arizona State lost 2 points. Alabama lost 2 points. There were two double-digit changes: Texas A&M lost 12 points, and LSU picked up 10 points. One team, Miami, picked up enough points, 7½, to get a bettor’s attention. Everybody else is in the 6½- to ½-point range. You can make an argument that the right ½ point is enough to turn a bet, and a 3½-point change is huge. But still...

Sponsored
Here's something you might be interested in.
Submit a free classified
or view all
Previous article

Sanctified and glorified at Encanto Southern Baptist Church

Life is important on this side of death, but what really matters is eternity.
Next Article

What opera is closest to California redwoods?

Tough competing with the English and Austrians
Comments
0

Be the first to leave a comment.

Sign in to comment

Sign in

Art Reviews — W.S. Di Piero's eye on exhibits Ask a Hipster — Advice you didn't know you needed Best Buys — San Diego shopping Big Screen — Movie commentary Blurt — Music's inside track Booze News — San Diego spirits City Lights — News and politics Classical Music — Immortal beauty Classifieds — Free and easy Cover Stories — Front-page features Excerpts — Literary and spiritual excerpts Famous Former Neighbors — Next-door celebs Feast! — Food & drink reviews Feature Stories — Local news & stories From the Archives — Spotlight on the past Golden Dreams — Talk of the town Here's the Deal — Chad Deal's watering holes Just Announced — The scoop on shows Letters — Our inbox [email protected] — Local movie buffs share favorites Movie Reviews — Our critics' picks and pans Musician Interviews — Up close with local artists Neighborhood News from Stringers — Hyperlocal news News Ticker — News & politics Obermeyer — San Diego politics illustrated Of Note — Concert picks Out & About — What's Happening Overheard in San Diego — Eavesdropping illustrated Poetry — The old and the new Pour Over — Grab a cup Reader Travel — Travel section built by travelers Reading — The hunt for intellectuals Roam-O-Rama — SoCal's best hiking/biking trails San Diego Beer News — Inside San Diego suds SD on the QT — Almost factual news Set 'em Up Joe — Bartenders' drink recipes Sheep and Goats — Places of worship Special Issues — The best of Sports — Athletics without gush Street Style — San Diego streets have style Suit Up — Fashion tips for dudes Theater Reviews — Local productions Theater antireviews — Narrow your search Tin Fork — Silver spoon alternative Under the Radar — Matt Potter's undercover work Unforgettable — Long-ago San Diego Unreal Estate — San Diego's priciest pads Waterfront — All things ocean Your Week — Daily event picks
4S Ranch Allied Gardens Alpine Baja Balboa Park Bankers Hill Barrio Logan Bay Ho Bay Park Black Mountain Ranch Blossom Valley Bonita Bonsall Borrego Springs Boulevard Campo Cardiff-by-the-Sea Carlsbad Carmel Mountain Carmel Valley Chollas View Chula Vista City College City Heights Clairemont College Area Coronado CSU San Marcos Cuyamaca College Del Cerro Del Mar Descanso Downtown San Diego Eastlake East Village El Cajon Emerald Hills Encanto Encinitas Escondido Fallbrook Fletcher Hills Golden Hill Grant Hill Grantville Grossmont College Guatay Harbor Island Hillcrest Imperial Beach Imperial Valley Jacumba Jamacha-Lomita Jamul Julian Kearny Mesa Kensington La Jolla Lakeside La Mesa Lemon Grove Leucadia Liberty Station Lincoln Acres Lincoln Park Linda Vista Little Italy Logan Heights Mesa College Midway District MiraCosta College Miramar Miramar College Mira Mesa Mission Beach Mission Hills Mission Valley Mountain View Mount Hope Mount Laguna National City Nestor Normal Heights North Park Oak Park Ocean Beach Oceanside Old Town Otay Mesa Pacific Beach Pala Palomar College Palomar Mountain Paradise Hills Pauma Valley Pine Valley Point Loma Point Loma Nazarene Potrero Poway Rainbow Ramona Rancho Bernardo Rancho Penasquitos Rancho San Diego Rancho Santa Fe Rolando San Carlos San Marcos San Onofre Santa Ysabel Santee San Ysidro Scripps Ranch SDSU Serra Mesa Shelltown Shelter Island Sherman Heights Skyline Solana Beach Sorrento Valley Southcrest South Park Southwestern College Spring Valley Stockton Talmadge Temecula Tierrasanta Tijuana UCSD University City University Heights USD Valencia Park Valley Center Vista Warner Springs
Close