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Home values around the nation suffered their biggest drop since recessionary 2008 in this year's first quarter, according to Zillow in a report released today (May 9). First quarter 2011 home values nationally fell 3% from the fourth quarter and 8.2% from a year earlier. San Diego values fell 2.1% from the fourth quarter and 5.5% from a year ago, bettering the national figures. Now, a stunning 28.4% of single-family homes in the nation are underwater -- the house is worth less than the mortgage. In the San Diego metro area, the figure is 26%. In Phoenix it's 68.4%, Sacramento 51.2%, Chicago 45.7%, Miami 47.7%, and Riverside 50.7%. San Diego home values are down 35.3% from the peak -- worse than the national drop of 29.5% for the 25 largest metro areas. Sacramento is down 50.1%, Riverside 53.8%, and Los Angeles 36.1%. Zillow now says housing prices won't hit bottom this year; the trough will come in 2012 at the earliest. Some economists say this is more evidence of a double dip in housing.

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Twister May 11, 2011 @ 8:55 a.m.

I've heard projections for home sale prices dropping between 5 and 10 percent by next year. Is this true for San Diego, and if so, will the price drop not put additional mortgages under water? How many? Will this be a vicious cycle? How will it be stopped? If the "recovery" is a weak, wobbly upward trend, how vulnerable is the economy to ending up in a corner from which there is no escape except for lower and lower wages for more and more people? What will they use to buy the stuff the top 10 percent make to sell?


SurfPuppy619 May 11, 2011 @ 10:17 a.m.

Twister, real estate is not going to go up anytime soon, not for 3-5 years IMO.

It may or may not go down-I personally think it will contunue to drop due to the unemployment problems, but who knows.

But it is not going to go up.


Don Bauder May 11, 2011 @ 9:05 p.m.

It's looking more and more like a San Diego double-dip, SP. Numbers from the first quarter were grim, nationally as well as locally. I would look for a further drop, not a flattening. Best, Don Bauder


Don Bauder May 11, 2011 @ 9:03 p.m.

Yes, several top economists such as Marney Cox of SANDAG look for a 5 to 10% drop in San Diego. Since he made that prediction several weeks ago, there has been worse national news. Today I posted one about government backing of mortgages dropping sharply in high-housing-price areas such as San Diego. Best, Don Bauder


Twister May 16, 2011 @ 11:06 p.m.

Note to SP: I guess I made the mistake of asking too many questions, none of which was was the housing market going up.

However, I have one more on this subject: When we talk about "drop" and "rise," should we make it clear just what the rise or drop is from (what datum)?


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