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The Labor Department's May employment report released today (June 4) indicates the so-called economic recovery is sputtering noticeably. The nation added 431,000 jobs in May, but 411,000 of them were temporary census workers. The private sector added just 41,000 jobs, down from 218,000 in April. The unemployment rate fell to 9.7% from 9.9%, but that partly reflected people leaving the labor force. The birth/death adjustment model, which theoretically attempts to reflect the number of jobs added by new enterprises that weren't counted in Labor Department surveys, rose to 215,000 jobs, up from 188,000 in April. Thus, it helped to bloat the anemic jobs number. There are problems with this estimate: 1. It is just a computerized generation, not representing an actual jobs count; 2. Many people, when laid off, set up their own businesses, such as consultancies, but they are not likely to succeed. The stock market is reacting negatively to today's report.

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SurfPuppy619 June 4, 2010 @ 12:53 p.m.

What did I tell you-no jobs = no recovery.

Plus, on top of the jobs report, of the 430K "new" jobs, 411K of them were GOV JOBS! Oh man, you can't make this stuff up!

Property taxes in CA are down 18% from last year-and last year they were down 30% from the year before. Sales tax is down 10% from last year and who knows how far sales tax was down the year before that.

June 30 is when CA must have a new budget in place-who wants to bet that not only will there be no timely budget signed June 30, but I predict that a new budget will NOT be signed until November 1st, 2010-4 months past the deadline. With HUGE gov employee cuts.

We are in uncharted waters. The budget time bomb is going off, and this is the year that the state/muni's cannot borrow their way out of this mess (using even the best smoke and mirrors).

Grab a lawn chain and a bag of popcorn, this is goign to be good.


paul June 4, 2010 @ 1:02 p.m.


I assume the "lawn chain" is to be used to beat off the government thugs as they come to take your house, and that "this is goign to be good" means "we are so screwed".

FYI, I just noticed that the state run Del Mar Fairgrounds decided that state workers get in free to the county fair They call if "furlough friday". How nice of them to do that for themselves!

What is next for the poor suffering state workers? Free auto registration for state workers? No property tax for state workers? State worker sales tax free day?


MsGrant June 4, 2010 @ 1:28 p.m.

Richard Russell, writer of the Dow Theory Letter said today that the stock market is in the toilet, not likely to recover anytime soon and to get out of stocks NOW. And he is not one to run scared.


Don Bauder June 4, 2010 @ 1:32 p.m.

Response to post #1: Yes, things look grim, but if insolvent San Diego just subsidizes the Chargers to the tune of $700 million - $800 million, everything will be OK -- for Chargers fans. Best, Don Bauder


Don Bauder June 4, 2010 @ 1:37 p.m.

Response to post #2: Don't be surprised if state workers get all those emoluments that you mentioned. Free tickets to the fair won't be enough to appease them. Best, Don Bauder


Don Bauder June 4, 2010 @ 1:42 p.m.

Response to post #3: Richard Russell is a savvy stocks technician. Going into this year, I had predicted that the Fed would keep the easy money flowing and the federal government would cook up more programs to keep the market going at least until the 2010 election in November. I thought the Dow would end 2010 at 12,000. I thought 2011 would be the year it all falls apart. I still might be right, but it looks now like my timing was perhaps off. Best, Don Bauder


Don Bauder June 4, 2010 @ 1:47 p.m.

NOTE: MARKET OFF 3 TO 4% The popular stock averages closed down between 3 and 4% today (June 4) and were down around 2% for the week. Among local stocks, biotech Neurocrine Biosciences dropped 8.7%; biotech Sequenom, which is getting a lot of bad publicity, dropped 7.2%, and Cohu 7.4%. Best, Don Bauder


SurfPuppy619 June 4, 2010 @ 5:51 p.m.

Go ahead, stick the fork in CA, b/c we're DONE!


a2zresource June 4, 2010 @ 7:28 p.m.

RE #1:

"We are in uncharted waters."

Right now, the only economic models that seem to make sense are sociological.

There have been a lot of changes in the nature of the players at the top of the markets, and some of those players no longer exist as independent entities after the Crash of 2008. It appears that a move to new regulations regarding exotic financial products could make for even more changes in what players will be left in the markets, and we still don't know what the result of investigations into Goldman Sachs (and others in the wake of those investigations) will be.

Bad publicity could be key. Not "will be", just "could be".

There was a lot of noise today that BP has obligations to pay out dividends as it has the resources to do it, and its stockholders need to be taken care of in the face of a 30% loss in equity value. At the same time, the losses suffered by residents around the Gulf who happen not to be BP stockholders don't really amount to much for BP's Tony Hayward until he gets his life back; that's par for the course for the breed apart that are corporate executives at the highest level.

Corporations matter because we allow them to matter. When we are visibly and undeniably fed up with them, then they just might react to us in a way that preserves that all-important quarterly income to their stockholders, before we boycott them out of existence. Until then, all we can do is skim the goo off the Gulf of Mexico, and hopefully, Pres. Obama will hand them another invoice.

Until then, I expect BP to do what Sempra Energy did after the 2007 Wildfires caused in part by SDG&E overhead power lines and "unavoidable" utility employee negligence: raise its dividend, like bad publicity matters to them yet...


Don Bauder June 4, 2010 @ 8:21 p.m.

Response to post #8: I would say California's fiscal condition is probably the worst of any state. Illinois is close. Best, Don Bauder


Don Bauder June 4, 2010 @ 8:24 p.m.

Response to post #9: And Sempra, thanks to a consumer-contemptuous and corporation-friendly PUC, let Sempra off the hook on those fires. Best, Don Bauder


Burwell June 4, 2010 @ 10:09 p.m.

If the state goes bankrupt or is forced to cut spending, most of the welfare recipients who have moved here from other states will most likely leave. California has 33% of the nation's welfare caseload. California is going broke because the federal government will only fund a maximum of 5 years of welfare benefits for each recipient. In other states, once a recipient reaches the 5 year maximum, s(he) is no longer eligible for welfare in that state. At that point the recipient either finds a job, or relocates to California to go on welfare. In California, with the 5 year federal funding period runs out the state picks up the tab with state tax revenue. If California is to recover, it is imperative that the welfare recipients be driven out of the state by cutting off their benefits.


Don Bauder June 5, 2010 @ 5:58 a.m.

Response to post #12: There is a general feeling that the state for some time has been too generous on entitlements of all kinds. Best, Don Bauder


MURPHYJUNK June 5, 2010 @ 7:58 a.m.

""We are in uncharted waters.""

first time I heard that ( and understood how it was implied) was in Rhodesia.

that dog Robert Mugabe used it quite often as the currency became worthless.

lets hope we are not a a similar course


Don Bauder June 5, 2010 @ 9:55 a.m.

Response to post #14: The dollar is rising against the euro and most people are complaining. Best, Don Bauder


MURPHYJUNK June 5, 2010 @ 1:14 p.m.


rising against a falling euro is still sliding isn't it?


Don Bauder June 5, 2010 @ 3:43 p.m.

Response to post #16: The dollar is rising against the euro, just as earlier the euro was rising against the dollar. The dollar may or may not be rising against a basket of currencies. I haven't looked recently. Best, Don Bauder


SurfPuppy619 June 6, 2010 @ 3:23 p.m.

DJIA 5-13-1999 = 11,100

DJIA 6-05-2010 = 9,931

A full 1,169 point LOSS in 11 years

So much for the claims that we are on the come back trail......as well as not being out of the woods with regard to pension funds.......


Don Bauder June 6, 2010 @ 6:13 p.m.

Response to post #18: We are definitely in a secular bear market for stocks. The years 1982-2000 represented a secular bull market. The bear is taking it back now. There will be another secular bull -- maybe in six years or so. There will be cyclical bull markets and cyclical bear markets inside the secular bull or bear markets. Best, Don Bauder


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