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Be prepared for second recession in Calif.
I expect another round of tax cuts before the election, not because they are the best policy long term, but because this form of stimulus would be too popular to stop, and if the Democrats don't do it now, the Republicans will get the credit after winning the election. More stimulus is needed.— July 8, 2010 1:12 a.m.
Be prepared for second recession in Calif.
to 50 Without the stimulus the world economy would be in the same state it was when it was passed, in complete and utter collapse. If inflation returns those who complain about deficits will have a case to make, and I will listen. Right now the world seems closer to deflationary disaster than true recovery. The Republicans are no more serious about reducing the deficit than the Democrats were when Bush was ruining the country. They simply want to save money so they can start another war. The parties agree on the deficit, just not on where it should be spent. The high moral tone taken by both these parties when out of power is truly laughable. Both parties pitch an incoherent and opportunist economic philosophy in order to get in power and run up the charge card. This just happens to be a good idea right now.— July 7, 2010 2:57 a.m.
Be prepared for second recession in Calif.
Trade fundamentally is barter. Our financial services are traded for foreign goods. the bankers gain from overseas is loss for our manufacturing, raw materials and agriculture. The problem is worsened by the willingness of overseas investors to hold dollars gratis. These dollars represent goods received but not paid for in American goods or services. Only inflation or the fear of inflation will induce holders of the dollar to convert those dollars to useful US goods in these troubled times. Until we see inflation, the Government should continue to pump money into the economy. The amount spent so far is huge, but apparently inadequate, because wages are not rising enough to buy the surpluses.— July 4, 2010 10:23 p.m.
Be prepared for second recession in Calif.
to 43 I have read the figure of 15/1 P/E as an average over the years. This return of 7% or so seems a rational return for the risks of an equity play. The lower returns today, and certainly in the 1990s, seem irrationally low. This is perhaps the only point which I agree with Greenspan. Irrational pessimism remains a possible condition of mass psychology, when this strikes, earnings will drop below 10/1. Perhaps not any time soon, perhaps not in our lifetime, but sooner or later. One day the gamblers will leave the crooked gambling house and return to making bets at honest casinos with posted odds. On that day real business people will return to run the nation's economy.— July 3, 2010 10:45 p.m.
Be prepared for second recession in Calif.
After forty posts of discussion of Federal lending and spending, I felt certain that all those not in the know had been driven to sleep, or couldn't understand the Economese, only to find that the Surfpuppy had jumped the fence and wandered into the top secret discussion. I expect general P/E to drop below 10/1, they always have before, some will call it a panic, but the stupidity is before the crash, not after. Since the banks now play stocks directly, something worse than 1929 is possible. For the banks 1929 was a good year. Surfpup, let this be our little secret, if you bark about it you will be blamed for popping the bubble, and there are judges who might find you responsible.— July 3, 2010 1:30 p.m.
Be prepared for second recession in Calif.
Almost as funny, and equally absurd, there is John Kenneth Galbraith, THE GREAT CRASH 1929. Every stock Investor should read it, and if they don't understand should stick to bonds and preferred.— July 2, 2010 12:24 a.m.
Be prepared for second recession in Calif.
Now cmon, Mr. Bauder, how can the Feds balance sheet get ruined when it can charge the government what it pleases for the trillions the government borrows. Now should this idea gain currency, I don't doubt that the argument will be made that we can't afford it, because the printing press is too worn out after all those trillions printed to bail out the banks. To all those who need a book to understand this, I suggest 'Alice in Wonderland', still the best explanation of modern economic thought.— July 1, 2010 1:13 a.m.
Be prepared for second recession in Calif.
The Sallie Mae reform deals with new debt, and is direct federal lending, repayment is linked to ability to repay, no more than 10% of income over 20 years. The Fannie and Freddie intervention refinances current loans at lower rates, with Fed guarantees, as well as guaranteeing new loans at low rates. My proposal, which is not so original that I think no one is discussing it now in top circles, is for the Fed to offer longer term loans at reasonable interest to those trapped by predatory loans. Releasing consumers from high interest rates could put over $100 billion annually into the pockets of those who have spent freely in the past. This crisis will end only when demand is restored to previous levels. Higher pay in the private sector worldwide is the only real fix, but reducing the portion of workers pay that is diverted to banking profits would help.— June 30, 2010 5:47 p.m.
Be prepared for second recession in Calif.
The central problem is not the Supreme Court, but the shocking ignorance of the public, here and worldwide. We blog furiously to fix this. The truth is not enough, we must be interesting. The public is very interested in the exploding rates and collapsing limits of credit cards. A direct federal intervention, as was done already with Sallie Mae, (undoubtedly a response to discussion in this blog), is in the public interest, and would be popular. We will march to the polls this November to the whining music of a filibuster of some wildly popular banking proposal. This is certain as a third down pass on the final possession of the team behind.— June 29, 2010 12:45 p.m.
Be prepared for second recession in Calif.
We have blogged mostly on the fiscal side of the crisis, rightly I believe, because interest rates to the banks can't get lower. There is more that must be done on the lending side also. Interest rates on consumer debt must be lowered. There is currently roughly a trillion dollars outstanding in credit card debt alone, at rates sometimes higher than 30%. Every point of drop in these rates would add over 10 billion in added spending power to consumers who have proven in the past to be willing to spend. The current situation, of the citizens loaning money to the banks at 0%, then letting the banks lend at 30%, is reasonable only to bankers and their friends. If necessary the government should loan directly to refinance the highest rates, The average consumer is a better credit risk than the banks. Most consumers did not go bankrupt two years ago. Most credit card holders work for a living. The banks are now mostly professional gamblers. The recent reforms are a good start, more is needed.— June 28, 2010 2:03 p.m.