OK, in response to Johnny's assertion that people in Social Security retire at age 75, take a look at this study:
http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2001/10/art2full.pdf
Now look at Table 1, entitled, "Estimated average age at retirement of men and women". Table 1 is split by Social Security data vs entire labor force data. Then it's split by men vs women and by year of retirement.
The average age of Social Security retirement in 2000 was 62.6 for men and 62.5 for women. That's only 12.5 years before Johnny said they retire. Incidentally, those ages are 62.0 and 61.4 for the entire labor force.
In other words, Johnny's cork must be pretty strained just about now. He occasionally writes stuff that makes sense, but his gross exaggerations blow the whole thing. — October 22, 2008 8:07 p.m.
City Pension Portfolio Plunges Below $4 Billion; That's Lower Than Level of Mid-2006
Don, so if I've got this right, you're saying that SDCERS outperformed the market over the time frame from June 30, 2006 until now. I don't think it's any big secret that the system was going to lose value in this market. But... only a small portion of those funds are needed now. The rest may be invested for the long run, in which the market will likely gain back much of what it has lost. Looking at the big picture, SDCERS lost much less than the market as a whole.— October 23, 2008 9:14 p.m.
Good News: SDCERS Discussing Lowering Interest Rate on DROP Account
Johnny wrote, "I will find something for the older guys to do if they claim they are not capable of physically fighting fires after age 50-which is another whopper in and of itself." Here's the fault in Johnny's logic. The city doesn't have extra budgeted positions just laying around waiting for the infirm to occupy. Can you imagine the budget outcry if we increased the size of the FD by, say, 300 just to provide jobs to people waiting for a retirement age of 62? Isn't it more fiscally prudent to begin planning an earlier retirement 25 years earlier, when the employee joins the FD? You have no idea just how lean the FD is. The mayor hired a consultant to see where the FD could cut fat. This individual was from the Austin FD. Austin is a much smaller city than San Diego, yet they have more support staff in their FD than SD does. Wonder why his report never hit the press? Oh, by the way, that report? No bid... and from a guy who's worked for DeMaio.— October 23, 2008 8:50 p.m.
Good News: SDCERS Discussing Lowering Interest Rate on DROP Account
Gee sorry, Don, I do have a life beyond posting on your blog. Let's see, about the 79% funding number. That (at the time) was an accurate number. Joe the Actuary didn't say that number was unacceptable, he said that using that method of calculating the percentage funded was inaccurate. There's one little problem with the study Johnny quoted. It's from German firefighters -- 50 years ago. What's changed in 50 years? Well, there's a much greater use of synthetics in household materials these days. NIOSH has documented that fires today are hotter and the smoke has more carcinogens. Look to the University of Cincinnati study on cancer rates on firefighters. http://www.bio-medicine.org/biology-news/Firefigh… About health care funding. The city pays into SDCERS for retiree healthcare insurance. However, if a retiree proves that a post-retirement claim is workers comp related, the money comes from the city's (self funded) workers comp budget. This only comes up in the case of presumptive illnesses with a time lag. Obviously, I'm not an attorney, so I can't comment on the specifics. Just as obviously, JV has never heard of it even though he does claim to be an attorney. To summarize... firefighters may live the same length of time as other folks, but I don't see how that's possible with us having twice the likelihood of getting cancer. It's much cheaper for the city to pawn payment for a cancer case off to a post-retirement insurance provider versus paying the claim themselves. The sooner the employee retires, the sooner the city is off the hook for workers' comp.— October 23, 2008 8:07 p.m.
Good News: SDCERS Discussing Lowering Interest Rate on DROP Account
Military retirement is 50% after 20 years -- and 75% after 30 years. Not everyone in the military makes $1000 per month. And of course, very, very few at SDFD make $200K. As usual, you're using the extremes of both possible cases to try to prove your point. As to the averages I posted-- go look it up. It's right there in the SDCERS CAFR.— October 23, 2008 6:47 a.m.
Good News: SDCERS Discussing Lowering Interest Rate on DROP Account
Johnny, Relax... perhaps you should acquaint yourself with the presumptive cancer and heart disease laws. Maybe liable was the wrong word, legally speaking. Let's use the words, "will pay for". Presumption for those diseases lasts until 5 years after retirement. The longer one works the longer the presumption lasts.— October 23, 2008 6:44 a.m.
Good News: SDCERS Discussing Lowering Interest Rate on DROP Account
Paul, The big perception is that all cops and firefighters retire on the dot of 50 with 90% of their salary. That simply isn't true. The numbers I used above are the averages. The average safety employee joins the system at age 27, enters DROP at age 52 at 75%, and leaves service at age 57. Incidentally, 75% is also what the military retires at -- but the federal government doesn't invest that money. In that regard the city is way ahead. I have yet to see a study that shows that firefighters in general have a shorter life span, though there are several studies showing that they have much greater incidence of cancer and heart disease. That's a damn good reason to retire them early -- so that they city doesn't become liable for work related cancer and heart disease. When I was hired, the multiplier was 2.77% and the system was 90+% funded. I think it even got over 100% for a while, but I'm not sure. Of course, there was no cap, so many folks retired with 110-120% of salary. Shocking.. but then the system was funded just fine. The funding ration didn't start dropping until the politicians quit paying into the system. So I think your last sentence pretty much hit the nail on the head. Total payments into the retirement system are less than 5% of the city budget. The retirement system isn't breaking the city.— October 22, 2008 10:07 p.m.
Good News: SDCERS Discussing Lowering Interest Rate on DROP Account
Paul, You made a little mistake with your examples. Retirement is capped at 90%. Let's look at more realistic numbers. The average safety retirement employee joins the city at age 27, enters DROP at age 52, leaves the city at age 57. (Source: SDCERS) So... Scenario 1: DROP at age 52, leave at age 57: 25 years * 3% * 100000 = $75,000 yr in retirement. Run that 5 years at 8% and you get 464,687. Now add an additional 21 years at $75000, or $1575000. The total is 2039687. Scenario 2: Retire at age 57: 30 years * 3% * 116000 = $104400/yr. Multiply that by the remaining 21 years and you get 2192400. Now which costs the system less money? In the interest of fairness, you didn't calculate the COLA into retirement figures, so I didn't either. That would tend to even out the figures as the COLA multiplied by the 8%. Also, DROP money doesn't have to be withdrawn after 5 years, so it will keep making 8%. However on average, SDCERS will make even more money on the DROP money left on deposit. I think this shows that your ciphering was off by a little and that the numbers are pretty damn close.— October 22, 2008 8:44 p.m.
Good News: SDCERS Discussing Lowering Interest Rate on DROP Account
Don, you do understand that the actuary that Aguirre used for his study is the same actuary who testified that the retirement fund is 97% funded and in no material danger of collapsing? Don't you? Joseph Esuchanko? "The 97.1% funded ratio on this basis meets this definition of actuarial soundness, even though the system is not going to terminate." He also testified that the 79.9% figure used by Aguirre is not an appropriate measure, "Based on the latest SDCERS Actuarial Valuation for the City of San Diego, as of June 30, 2006, the "funded ratio" of SDCERS is 79.9%. This represents the ratio of the actuarial value of assets to the actuarial accrued liability (the "AAL"). This rate is not an appropriate measure of actuarial soundness, since Its calculation is dependent upon the choice of actuarial method of calculation." http://www.blogofsandiego.com/Issues/Pension/Esuc… Yep, that's Aguirre's guy!— October 22, 2008 8:18 p.m.
Good News: SDCERS Discussing Lowering Interest Rate on DROP Account
OK, in response to Johnny's assertion that people in Social Security retire at age 75, take a look at this study: http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2001/10/art2full.pdf Now look at Table 1, entitled, "Estimated average age at retirement of men and women". Table 1 is split by Social Security data vs entire labor force data. Then it's split by men vs women and by year of retirement. The average age of Social Security retirement in 2000 was 62.6 for men and 62.5 for women. That's only 12.5 years before Johnny said they retire. Incidentally, those ages are 62.0 and 61.4 for the entire labor force. In other words, Johnny's cork must be pretty strained just about now. He occasionally writes stuff that makes sense, but his gross exaggerations blow the whole thing.— October 22, 2008 8:07 p.m.
Good News: SDCERS Discussing Lowering Interest Rate on DROP Account
So let's look at Johnny's studies. What's $7.9 trillion divided by $750 billion? Then divided by the number of public retirement systems in the country? There is no doubt that public pension deficits are a huge problem in this country. I've never denied that. Here in San Diego, however, we seem be headed in the right direction. It took a long time to get into trouble. It will take a while to get out. Now let's look at another quote from a different paper by Mr. Rauh. "This example suggests that senior managers can use pension accounting to boost reported corporate profits. These actions also appear to influence stock prices." Wouldn't that be CEO's using pension accounting to boost stock prices and thus their salaries? The quote by Ed Ring is essentially bunk. Exactly what qualification does the CEO of an environmental blog have in commenting on public pensions -- other than that Johnny agrees with him?— October 22, 2008 5:55 p.m.