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Tijuana Earthquake Might Displace 90,000

A recent seismic study by scientists of CICESE, an Ensenada-based investigatory group, determined that an earthquake measuring greater than 6 on the Richter scale would cause significant damage to Tijuana and outlying areas of the city.

A quake with an epicenter located along any of three faults that run near the city — Silver Strand fault to the west, Vallecitos fault in the southeast, and La Nación fault to the north — would result in at least 5000 lives lost and 80,000 persons injured, according to a computer model.

The principal areas of the city affected would be La Mesa, Mesa Otay, and El Centro. El Centro is the primary tourist zone of the city along Avenida Revolución and contains many seismically sensitive masonry buildings that have not been retrofitted to withstand earthquakes.

The computer model was predicated on six quake-modeling scenarios in the 6.5 Richter magnitude range, utilizing software used by the United Nations to determine earthquake risk around the globe. The modeling assumption was that the quake would occur along the fault line five miles north of the city and that 68,000 buildings would suffer damage.

The study also found that 90,000 tijuanenses would need temporary shelter and emergency care. According to seismic specialist Humberto Mendoza of CICESE, these figures represent only an approximation of what might happen and are not to be taken as exact predictions.

Source: Frontera

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A recent seismic study by scientists of CICESE, an Ensenada-based investigatory group, determined that an earthquake measuring greater than 6 on the Richter scale would cause significant damage to Tijuana and outlying areas of the city.

A quake with an epicenter located along any of three faults that run near the city — Silver Strand fault to the west, Vallecitos fault in the southeast, and La Nación fault to the north — would result in at least 5000 lives lost and 80,000 persons injured, according to a computer model.

The principal areas of the city affected would be La Mesa, Mesa Otay, and El Centro. El Centro is the primary tourist zone of the city along Avenida Revolución and contains many seismically sensitive masonry buildings that have not been retrofitted to withstand earthquakes.

The computer model was predicated on six quake-modeling scenarios in the 6.5 Richter magnitude range, utilizing software used by the United Nations to determine earthquake risk around the globe. The modeling assumption was that the quake would occur along the fault line five miles north of the city and that 68,000 buildings would suffer damage.

The study also found that 90,000 tijuanenses would need temporary shelter and emergency care. According to seismic specialist Humberto Mendoza of CICESE, these figures represent only an approximation of what might happen and are not to be taken as exact predictions.

Source: Frontera

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Comments
1

A 6.5 in Tijuana would be much worse than this estimate. Almost all dwellings are block or brick, the worst type of construction for withstanding a large quake. Even the roofs of most government-built housing (through the Infonavit program) are made of cement. Every house I have rented here has been constructed using cement block, and all had cement roofs, except for a brief 3 month stint when I first arrived. That house had cement block walls with a wood roof.

March 10, 2011

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4S Ranch Allied Gardens Alpine Baja Balboa Park Bankers Hill Barrio Logan Bay Ho Bay Park Black Mountain Ranch Blossom Valley Bonita Bonsall Borrego Springs Boulevard Campo Cardiff-by-the-Sea Carlsbad Carmel Mountain Carmel Valley Chollas View Chula Vista City College City Heights Clairemont College Area Coronado CSU San Marcos Cuyamaca College Del Cerro Del Mar Descanso Downtown San Diego Eastlake East Village El Cajon Emerald Hills Encanto Encinitas Escondido Fallbrook Fletcher Hills Golden Hill Grant Hill Grantville Grossmont College Guatay Harbor Island Hillcrest Imperial Beach Imperial Valley Jacumba Jamacha-Lomita Jamul Julian Kearny Mesa Kensington La Jolla Lakeside La Mesa Lemon Grove Leucadia Liberty Station Lincoln Acres Lincoln Park Linda Vista Little Italy Logan Heights Mesa College Midway District MiraCosta College Miramar Miramar College Mira Mesa Mission Beach Mission Hills Mission Valley Mountain View Mount Hope Mount Laguna National City Nestor Normal Heights North Park Oak Park Ocean Beach Oceanside Old Town Otay Mesa Pacific Beach Pala Palomar College Palomar Mountain Paradise Hills Pauma Valley Pine Valley Point Loma Point Loma Nazarene Potrero Poway Rainbow Ramona Rancho Bernardo Rancho Penasquitos Rancho San Diego Rancho Santa Fe Rolando San Carlos San Marcos San Onofre Santa Ysabel Santee San Ysidro Scripps Ranch SDSU Serra Mesa Shelltown Shelter Island Sherman Heights Skyline Solana Beach Sorrento Valley Southcrest South Park Southwestern College Spring Valley Stockton Talmadge Temecula Tierrasanta Tijuana UCSD University City University Heights USD Valencia Park Valley Center Vista Warner Springs
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