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Standard & Poor's Case-Shiller home price indices published this morning (Sept. 28) show San Francisco, San Diego and Los Angeles home values continuing to rise stoutly on a year-over-year basis, but S&P's David Blitzer says those expecting a return to lofty 2005-2006 levels may be disappointed. "Stable prices seem more likely," he says. San Diego home values rose 9.3% in July from a year earlier. San Francisco's were up 11.2% and Los Angeles's 7.5%, as California continued to pace the national rebound. One positive: San Diego values rose 0.7% from June to July versus 0.4% from May to June. However, Case-Shiller numbers are smoothed over several months. The effect of the first-time home buyer stimulus still has not faded from the numbers, warns Blitzer.

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Comments

SurfPuppy619 Sept. 28, 2010 @ 8:56 a.m.

Don't hold your breath on housing.

We are still 2-3 years away from climbing out of the bottom, if we are even in the bottom yet.

I know for a fact that there are boatloads of people who are upside down on their mortgages. Remember, prices have fallen 35%-50% since 2006/7. People who bought at $500K, and are still making payments, have a home worth $250K. Will they keep paying? Will they walk away? I think we will to see people walk away- for 2-3 more years.

I have a neighbor right now who is in this pickle, and millions more are in the same boat.

And as long as home mortgages are upside down there will be no new building-and contruction is what has pulled this country out of all of it's previous recessions. No contsruction, no end to the recession.

2014 earliest-but more likely 2015 IMO is when things will look good again.

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Don Bauder Sept. 28, 2010 @ 9:06 a.m.

Response to post #1: A lot of economists with good track records expect housing to dip again. Best, Don Bauder

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Founder Sept. 28, 2010 @ 9:10 a.m.

The numbers quoted by S & P are as inflated as our home prices!

They are just some more feel good SPIN for the masses while everything "real" like food continues to go upward. Our Big Banks will soon own almost everything real estate wise and I look for them to wipe the "conventional" Realtor off their playing field as they will sell their own homes by them selves...

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Visduh Sept. 28, 2010 @ 10:51 a.m.

I hate to bring up some things like the fact that home prices are rising while the employment picture is flat locally? Who is paying those prices? But there are inexplicable things going on, such as ground being broken on new homes in No County. McMansions in the San Elijo Hills development are being finished, marketed and sold right through this housing debacle. Again, who is buying those mini-palacios? None of this makes much sense if the figures are, indeed, correct.

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Don Bauder Sept. 28, 2010 @ 10:54 a.m.

Response to post #3: Robert Shiller, Yale economist who is the Shiller of Case-Shiller, is one of the most realistic of all commentators today. Best, Don Baiuder

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Founder Sept. 28, 2010 @ 11:41 a.m.

Reply #4 & #5 "However, Case-Shiller numbers are smoothed over several months. The effect of the first-time home buyer stimulus still has not faded from the numbers, warns Blitzer."

Give it a few months (XMAS) and then the numbers will reflect our COLD reality.

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Don Bauder Sept. 28, 2010 @ 2:33 p.m.

Response to post #6: The numbers produced by other outfits that don't use smoothing techniques already show slippage. I wrote a column on that a bit ago. Best, Don Bauder

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MsGrant Sept. 28, 2010 @ 3:27 p.m.

I do not understand why 2005-2006 home prices are still being used as the gold standard to aspire to. They were artificially inflated. I hate when I read housing prices are down 40% or some other garbage. Down from what? Those left holding the bag bought at the top of an unrealistic housing market. The fact that so many did buy at that time is a sad by-product of not just lax lending requirements, but non-existent ones.

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SurfPuppy619 Sept. 28, 2010 @ 3:51 p.m.

The fact that so many did buy at that time is a sad by-product of not just lax lending requirements, but non-existent ones.

This was one of the two major problems IMO-1) underwriting standards tossed out the window, and 2) Mr Bubble keeping interest rates artificially low for far too long.

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Don Bauder Sept. 28, 2010 @ 11:26 p.m.

Response to post #8: I think it is relevant to show how far prices came down from the peak. It's not just done in housing. It's common in stock, commodity, fixed income prices, too. Peak to trough, trough to peak. Best, Don Bauder

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Don Bauder Sept. 28, 2010 @ 11:28 p.m.

Response to post #9: Consumers buying homes they could not afford should go on that list, too. Best, Don Bauder

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