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The lead indicators of the San Diego economy, compiled by Alan Gin of the University of San Diego, rose moderately in April from March, rising to 109.2 from 109. The indicators have been in a fairly steady, if modest, uptrend; in November of last year, they were 109.9. In April, moving favorably were building permits, stock prices, and help wanted advertising. Moving in an unfavorable direction were initial unemployment claims, consumer confidence, and the national economy.

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Comments

SurfPuppy619 May 27, 2010 @ 7:56 a.m.

Modest increase, and inching forward, are the key words here.

I still think we are in deep trouble b/c the budget deficits (both local and federal) are through the roof with no new jobs, especially middel class jobs, in sight.

Don't even get me going on the mutliple "bailouts" and how we're supposed to pay trillions back.

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MURPHYJUNK May 27, 2010 @ 8:45 a.m.

more like forward buy a fraction of a millimeter

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paul May 27, 2010 @ 8:54 a.m.

Still, its better then when they tried to sell that the economy was "improving" because the rate of decline was slowing down!?!?

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Don Bauder May 27, 2010 @ 8:54 a.m.

Response to post #1: Don't get me going, either, but I have to repeat a warning. The U.S. and most of the legacy industrialized nations, particularly in Europe, have to shift from consumption and debt to savings. The spending spree to fight the possibility of world deflation has to end. Deficits are vastly excessive. Governments, financial institutions, consumers are too deeply in debt around the world. There HAS to be retraction. This means growth of 1 or 2% or something worse for the next several years. This also means higher taxes both on the local and national levels. In the U.S., you won't be hearing about this until after the November election. Europe's politicians already realize what their countries must do. Best, Don Bauder

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Don Bauder May 27, 2010 @ 8:55 a.m.

Response to post #2: I wouldn't be surprised it it dips in May. Best, Don Bauder

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Don Bauder May 27, 2010 @ 8:57 a.m.

Response to post #3: They can always find a ray of sunshine somewhere in the stats. Best, Don Bauder

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David Dodd May 27, 2010 @ 9:39 a.m.

None of these indicators take into consideration the money supply. Keynesians are quick to point to this sort of news as a sign of stimulus creating economic growth, but I don't buy it. Part of the economic indicators are due to a strength in the dollar which is because of weakness in the Euro and other currencies. Even the Mexican Peso, which had gained back much of its value against the dollar, is beginning to slip again. How can the U.S. have printed so much money, absorbed massive debt, and still have such strength? I am wagering a guess that government - to placate Wall Street - is massaging the National numbers and investors are responding to that. One day, investors are likely to wake up and realize that the dollar isn't as strong as they thought it was.

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Don Bauder May 27, 2010 @ 1:38 p.m.

Response to post #7: Countries in times like the present don't want strong currencies. They want weak currencies to simulate the export business. Their politicians, such as in the U.S., will claim to want a strong currency, but it's a bunch of hooey. With currencies trading against each other, it's often hard to say that a currency is strong. It's just that the economy of the currency it trades against is collapsing. Would you say the dollar is strong, or would you say that the euro is pathetically weak? I'm afraid it is the latter. Best, Don Bauder

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David Dodd May 27, 2010 @ 2:07 p.m.

@ #8: I could have made my comment more clear. Yes, absolutely, the Euro tanking certainly has an effect on the comparative value of the dollar. But, when trillions of dollars are printed up with nothing in back of them, what's the true domestic value of the dollar, and more importantly, the properties and holdings that are represented by it? In other words, when statistics report that housing prices have risen, what have they truly risen against? When economies flood the money supply, how can value truly increase when the currency is worth less? My position, right or wrong, is that the dollar is worth a lot less than it was two years ago, irrespective of its value against other currencies. It seems as though microeconomic reports are trying to use macroeconomic statistics to validate the indicators. I think that because the money supply is so alarmingly enormous, small gains in value are either an outright lie, or else tied more to what will be the beginning of an inflationary period. Hope I'm wrong.

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Don Bauder May 27, 2010 @ 4:37 p.m.

Response to post #10: The U.S. is ballooning money. But unless the banks lend it out, it's not likely to produce inflation as long as the economy stays as weak as it is. If suddenly there were a V-shaped recovery with lots of bank lending, inflation would soar. What I believe the Fed has been trying to do for decades is to try to inflate assets that don't show up in the inflation (mainly consumer price index) numbers. Housing, stocks, bonds fall into that category. In short, the Fed thinks the public is more tolerant of bubbles than it is of inflation of goods and services. But haven't we learned anything from the 2000-2002 stock crash and the 2007-2010 stock and real estate crash? Bubbles aren't healthy. Please tell Ben Bernanke. Best, Don Bauder

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