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The lead indicators of the San Diego economy, compiled by Alan Gin of the University of San Diego, edged up to 110.3 in November. They had been stuck at 110 for four straight months beginning in July. The indicators moved up every month from 100.7 in March of 2009, then flattened out beginning in July. In the first quarter of 2009, about the time the local indicators began moving up, the U.S. government and Federal Reserve began pumping massive liquidity into the economy. That process is actually escalating. In November, help wanted advertising and building permits moved in an unfavorable direction, while initial unemployment claims, stock prices, consumer confidence, and the national economy moved in a favorable direction.

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Comments

SurfPuppy619 Dec. 21, 2010 @ 8:40 a.m.

Until housing is solid-and home building starts again, we will have no improvement in the economy .

Housing is still 1-5 years off.

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Don Bauder Dec. 21, 2010 @ 10:38 a.m.

Return to the bubble price levels may be many more years away than that. Best, Don Bauder

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a2zresource Dec. 21, 2010 @ 9 a.m.

Apparently it was a wise thing for the mayoral pull-back on putting a new city hall on the November 2010 ballot. In fact, I don't recall hearing anything more about the expense of that project since then. Maybe after the economy improves, but not now with indicators mixed and so soon after the defeat of Proposition D.

At the same time, that big concrete-lined hole in the ground that is supposed to become our new central library downtown makes a nice-sized reservoir, with even more rain due tonight and tomorrow... How did the mayor predict that end to water rationing?

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Don Bauder Dec. 21, 2010 @ 10:40 a.m.

Folks go to libraries to sop up knowledge. Best, Don Bauder

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SurfPuppy619 Dec. 21, 2010 @ 12:24 p.m.

At the same time, that big concrete-lined hole in the ground that is supposed to become our new central library downtown makes a nice-sized reservoir,

Heheheheh...the funny thing is there was a HUGE entire block hole in the ground downtown-on Market and maybe 8th or 9th, where we had some yahoo developer started a high rise back in the early 90's and the bottom fell out, and that hole in the ground sat there for 10+ years.

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Don Bauder Dec. 21, 2010 @ 4:25 p.m.

And nobody passing by knew their elbow from a hole in the ground. Best, Don Bauder

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Founder Dec. 21, 2010 @ 5:08 p.m.

I think the Report is "Gin'd Up" to make folks like US feel good!

I consider a 0.3 increase after 3 months is probably due to some Thanksgiving/Early Christmas shopping. Just wait until the first quarter of 2011 after the Christmas "Rush" is over and that will tell the tale!

I'm predicting that that the 0.3 increase will become a thing of the past as the new number is much lower than it has been for the past 3 months.

Good Luck to all of US early next year!

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Don Bauder Dec. 21, 2010 @ 9:28 p.m.

But the lead indicators, both for the nation and for San Diego, reflect all the liquidity that the federal government and Federal Reserve are pumping into the economy -- trillions of dollars of it. Stock prices, consumer confidence, and the national economy are jacked up by all this liquidity. Best, Don Bauder

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SurfPuppy619 Dec. 21, 2010 @ 9:56 p.m.

But the lead indicators, both for the nation and for San Diego, reflect all the liquidity that the federal government and Federal Reserve are pumping into the economy -- trillions of dollars of it. Stock prices, consumer confidence, and the national economy are jacked up by all this liquidity.

I am from the Friedrich August Hayek school of economics, save the money and expand with that money you have saved, not borrowed, like Keynes says-borrowing is what we have been doing and it simply doesn't work.........

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Don Bauder Dec. 22, 2010 @ 7:39 a.m.

The Hayek and Keynes schools will never reach agreement. They have battled through the decades. Keynes and his followers said that "private virtue [savings] is public folly." Now, the absence of savings and excessive consumption are destroying the U.S. economy. Best, Don Bauder

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Founder Dec. 22, 2010 @ 8:17 a.m.

"Borrowing on what you and others have said above; what is everyones "take" on the near future, say next 3 to 6 months?

Here is something that I found about the effect of Gold and it's effect on our global economy*. I'm not connected in any way with these folks but I do think the article addresses some global fiscal issues and especially this: "reports published on price inflation, which rages higher at 8% according to Shadow Govt Statistics competent analysis, permit a 5% to 6% lie to be built into the GDP calculations. If price inflation is not really 2% to 3% as reported, then the GDP growth is not 3% as reported, but actually minus 2% to minus 3% instead. If simple annual GDP is compared to annual GDP from a year ago, then the GDP is running at a 7% recession."

I'd be interested in what others more savvy about our money supply have to say about this.

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Don Bauder Dec. 22, 2010 @ 9:12 a.m.

I have written a lot for the Reader on phony U.S. economic statistics. Inflation and unemployment are understated deliberately. It's "1984" and "Brave New World" in plain view. The U.S. has gone from product engineering to financial engineering, and this has been a massive failure. But the government covers it up. One thing to watch: if Assange releases government communications with and about the big banks, the government will rush to defend the banks (as well itself). It has already announced plans to get Assange on a number of counts. We do not have a free society. Best, Don Bauder

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johnsd Dec. 23, 2010 @ 12:43 a.m.

Product engineering creates tangible and usable products. It is generally based on hard science and provable theories. Financial engineering creates paper products. It is based on soft science and very complex mathematical models that are difficult to prove. Financial engineering pays incredibly well--at least until it implodes, or you can buy government protection (i.e. "too big to fail"). The revolving door between Washington and Wall Street is moving faster than ever.

Anecdotally, inflation appears to be much higher than reported. The cost of food, energy and government is increasing much more than 1-2% per year.

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Don Bauder Dec. 23, 2010 @ 7:26 a.m.

Yes, it is disgusting that financial engineering -- which actually detracts from societal productivity -- pays the highest salaries and bonuses. It's one more example of the crumbling of our system. You are right: financial engineering is just paper shuffling. As to inflation, the government has a number of tricks it employs to understate that figure. Best, Don Bauder

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SurfPuppy619 Dec. 22, 2010 @ 9:08 a.m.

I would not buy gold at this time, it has had it's run up-it will msot likely come back down.

Remember, gold sat at or around $300/once for 15 years or so.....and since it does not earn interest the only upside is appreciation.

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Founder Dec. 22, 2010 @ 9:14 a.m.

I was "just wondering" about the info in the above article being factual (not the "buy Gold" hedge against idea) and if it is what folks here think about our next 6 month outlook...

From where I'm sitting things look "bleak to worse", instead of "more of the same"...

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SurfPuppy619 Dec. 22, 2010 @ 3:14 p.m.

Gold is not a bad idea for a small portion of a portfolio-I would never go above 15% myself, and I would never buy at anything near the price it is today which is at record pricing.

I don't see it going up any further, just down. But that is a guess.

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Don Bauder Dec. 23, 2010 @ 7:32 a.m.

That's what people were saying about gold several years ago, just before it took off on its huge upride. You never know -- about any investment class. Best, Don Bauder

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Don Bauder Dec. 23, 2010 @ 7:30 a.m.

Keep in mind that gold responds to a plethora of factors, many having little to do with what goes on in the U.S. Best, Don Bauder

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Don Bauder Dec. 23, 2010 @ 7:28 a.m.

I have never liked gold as an investment. I am not sure, however, that it will come down significantly. It could definitely be flat for awhile. Best, Don Bauder

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SurfPuppy619 Dec. 23, 2010 @ 9:33 a.m.

Precious metal investments are not for anyone who is not a very experienced investor.

Don, do you recall that commodities trading firm in downtown back in the 80's called International Trading Group-I think that was the name of it-they all went over to the UTC Monex office after ITG closed..........

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Don Bauder Dec. 23, 2010 @ 3:19 p.m.

Oh yes, I wrote about International Trading Group, as well as Monex. Best, Don Bauder

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MsGrant Dec. 23, 2010 @ 5:25 p.m.

When the sovereign debt of the U.S. Government gets downgraded by Moody's (which they have already hinted they are going to do in two years) from AAA to AA, gold will most likely go up much higher. It's not how high gold will go, it's how low the dollar will go. Just saying.

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Don Bauder Dec. 23, 2010 @ 8:48 p.m.

There is no question that official U.S. policy is to drive the dollar down. The government pours on the fiscal juice while the Federal Reserve turns up the monetary spigot. The low interest rates drive down the buck. No doubt you have noticed that when the dollar goes down, U.S. stocks generally go up and vice versa. It is rank hypocrisy that we criticize China for manipulating its currency downward. Best, Don Bauder

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Psycholizard Dec. 23, 2010 @ 11:13 p.m.

Dear Psycholizard,

Mommy and Daddy get so tired every Christmas, and they work so hard I never see them. I don't need any presents this Christmas, I just want Mommy and Daddy to stay home and get some rest. But I don't want to hurt Santa's feelings either.

Your fan, Jessica

Dear Jessica,

You seem like a very nice little girl, who means no harm, but you are playing with very dangerous and bad ideas. To explain, let me share the story of another little girl, like yourself, named Suzy, who lived not too long ago.

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Don Bauder Dec. 24, 2010 @ 7:11 a.m.

Suzy mustn't ruffle the feathers of economists. Best, Don Bauder

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Psycholizard Dec. 23, 2010 @ 11:22 p.m.

Suzy also asked that her parents buy her no presents and take some time off work to be together. Her parents liked the idea and agreed. Suzy then told all her friends, and they told all their friends. Soon everyone wanted to do without presents, and spend more time together for Christmas. They were so happy in their new plans that no one thought of Santa, his Elves, or the little Elf children.

When Santa's workshop heard of Suzy's plans, panic ran wild. None of the Elves had ever done any job other than making toys for the world's children. Nor had Santa ever thought of any other job for himself or his fifty reindeer.than delivering toys. Without their toymaking jobs Santa's Elves would be unable to feed their children. Santa decided to visit Suzy hoping she would change her Christmas plans.

So Suzy heard the clatter of tiny reindeer feet on her roof one late November night, and Santa arrived at her doorstep. After a pleasant greeting Santa begged her with tears in his eyes: "Please Suzy tell all your friends to ask for gifts this Christmas or my Elves will go hungry.".

And Suzy listened, because she really liked Santa, but thoughtlessly, (she was only a little girl), she replied; "Thank you Santa for all your nice gifts, but I like my parents so much I just want more time with them. Besides, I think you might be drinking. I think your Elves will be fine.".

Suzy was right that Santa had been drinking, but wrong about everything else. When Santa returned to Bavaria {that was where his toyshop was in those days). He found that his Elves had been talking to a new leader called the Antisanta. The Antisanta promised the Elves work making guns and bombs to attack the homes of the mean people that didn't want toys anymore. The Antisanta promised to feed their children on the spoils of war. The Elves had little choice but to work for the Antisanta.

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Don Bauder Dec. 24, 2010 @ 8:03 a.m.

Consumption is a whopping 70% of the U.S. economy. Retailers begin making profits in the Christmas season. Suzy is unAmerican. But Psycholizard has hit the nail on the head: defense spending makes up for any lack of consumption. Why do you think the defense budget is so large year upon year? What to you think these useless wars (Iraq, Afghanistan) are all about? Best, Don Bauder

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Psycholizard Dec. 23, 2010 @ 11:29 p.m.

Meanwhile Santa took a job delivering pizza with his reindeer. The tips however were poor since people thought he was too old for the job, and they thought the reindeer might damage the roof shingles. Then the bank repossessed his fifty reindeer.

They told Santa that they were sold to a zoo, but eight of them escaped and told Santa the awful truth. His reindeer were sold to a hunting farm where rich Republicans could shoot them for money. Flying reindeer make difficult targets, and some escaped to rejoin Santa.

Santa decided to break the law and save his remaining reindeer. He flew to the North Pole and set up a new base of operations, far from the banks power to seize his reindeer. But the Antisanta continued to hunt Santa.

Meanwhile the Antisanta's elves attacked Suzy's home town with the guns and bombs they built instead of toys. Suzy was separated from her parents in the confusion and never saw them again.

A great war ensued that only ended when an atomic bomb was detonated on the Antisanta's elves. In the peace terms the elves agreed to follow Santa forever, AND THE CHILDREN OF THE WORLD AGREED TO ASK FOR TOYS.

Jessica, I hope this little story has shown you how wrong, and how selfish you have been, and that your foolish thoughts could threaten the whole world. I have just one more story to make this point, a story about the real meaning of Christmas.

Two thousand years ago there was a Man filled with love, just like you are Jessica, He didn't have toys, in fact all He owned was a pair of sandals and a blanket. He told the world that they could live without toys. When His teachers found out they hunted Him down and tortured Him to death.

Today, pictures of His tortured body are displayed in churches and schools to remind us all what Dick Cheney would do to us if he found us talking like you, Jessica.

Watch yourself.

Merry Christmas to all, Psycholizard

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Don Bauder Dec. 24, 2010 @ 8:06 a.m.

The classic example was right after 9/11. George Bush warned people that there might be economic consequences. But then he quickly told them to keep buying at the malls. Best, Don Bauder

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Founder Dec. 24, 2010 @ 8:24 a.m.

And looking back he is most sorry that he did not allow folks to self direct all their Social Security money, which for most folks would now also have been lost during the "crash" and would now also be owned by the Ultra Wealthy...

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Don Bauder Dec. 24, 2010 @ 12:23 p.m.

Yeah, but I think the Republicans are trying to bring that Social Security ploy back. People have short memories, even with their stocks down 25%. Best, Don Bauder

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Psycholizard Dec. 24, 2010 @ 6:54 p.m.

No one seems to notice that a government supervised play in the controlling, equity shares of our corporations, using the nation's nest egg, would lead to the government sitting on the boards of those corporations, if that nest egg should be threatened.

This proposed purchase by the people of control of the means of production goes beyond Socialism to Communism, and would win the endorsement of Marx himself.

This bad and unpopular idea would never be discussed, except that after plundering the general fund to bankruptcy, the trillions in the solvent Social Security fund attracts these hucksters like dogs to a rotting carcass.

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Founder Dec. 26, 2010 @ 7:40 a.m.

Social Security is the ONLY plum left in our Nation Treasury, everything else has been transferred either into the accounts of the Ultra Wealthy or is now controlled by them!

I've mentioned the concept of a Financial Civil War before and from where I'm sitting, using a Star Wars analogy, the Death Star is on it's way and all of US are living on Alderaan*...

*From http://www.starwars.com/databank/location/alderaan/index.html

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Don Bauder Dec. 24, 2010 @ 11:06 p.m.

Communist China is capitalistic and the supposedly capitalistic U.S. is corporate socialist. Best, Don Bauder

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