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The lead indicators of the San Diego economy, compiled by Alan Gin of the University of San Diego, rose to 109 in March from 108 in February, continuing the uptrend that has been in force since April of 2009. Building permits, initial unemployment claims, stock prices, help wanted advertising, and the national economy all moved in a favorable direction in March. The only indicator falling was consumer confidence.

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Comments

SurfPuppy619 April 28, 2010 @ 8:45 a.m.

Sorry, I am still very SKEPTICAL, and do not buy into a recovery, escpecially in San Diego.

I hope I am wrong, but I don't think so.

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a2zresource April 28, 2010 @ 9:27 a.m.

Despite the low consumer confidence levels, there would seem to be a lot of pent-up consumer demand for goods and services. Maybe I'm wrong, but the low local consumer confidence level seems to reflect more on an inability of ordinary people to obtain full-time jobs and credit than on a lack of demand. If demand is low, then we should blame lousy advertising?

Hopefully, WEBA will not be adopted by CPUC as an open-ended wildfire tax on consumers, as this won't do a thing to improve consumer confidence (http://www.cpuc.ca.gov/EFILE/REP/108609.pdf).

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Don Bauder April 28, 2010 @ 10:41 a.m.

Response to post #1: The economy is doing better, to be sure, but there are several things to think about: 1. Another wave of foreclosures is almost certainly coming, so housing prices will probably dip again; 2. Commercial real estate keeps getting worse; 3. Too much of the improvement came from either federal programs such as cash for clunkers or the Fed keeping interest rates around zero for the banks, and artificially keeping long rates low by buying up long paper. So both Keynes (fiscal) and Friedman (monetary) look like heroes -- BUT the federal government has to handle its deficit and the Federal Reserve has to repair its tattered balance sheet. There is really no recovery until both the Treasury and the Fed clean up their messes. That could be almost impossible. The capital markets look like they are in a sweet spot. The Fed says it will keep the banks' interest rates at zero until unemployment improves, and it won't for a couple of years. Inflation remains low because the economy is so weak. So liquidity can continue to buoy the stock, bond and commodities market as the Fed keeps issuing money. Wall Street can continue to feast off Main Street's misery -- UNLESS a black swan appears. Or prices get so high that they fall for valuation reasons. (The stock market is about 30% overvalued, for example. It can continue getting more overvalued -- but you never know) Best, Don Bauder

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Don Bauder April 28, 2010 @ 10:45 a.m.

Response to post #2: The recovery of stock, bond and commodities markets is helping upscale consumers. That's where much of the consumer improvement lies. And yes, you are absolutely right. The attempt by Sempra to get consumers to pay for Sempra's fire insurance is a disgrace. Best, Don Bauder

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chillblaine April 28, 2010 @ 12:54 p.m.

We're in the market for our first house right now. I've heard that there are a lot of foreclosed properties that banks are withholding from the market, keeping the inventory low and prices level or rising. Anyone else aware of this?

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Don Bauder April 28, 2010 @ 3:33 p.m.

Response to post #5: Yes, banks are indeed withholding homes from the market. Some people are living in them without paying their mortgages. Those banks will have to start dumping these homes on the market at some point. You might wait to buy that home. Best, Don Bauder

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SurfPuppy619 April 28, 2010 @ 6:20 p.m.

The recovery of stock, bond and commodities markets is helping upscale consumers

And how many jobs has this recovery created-a big fat ZERO. Nada. Nothing.

The feds have proped up the states with so called "stimulas" money-especially CA-so the states can kick their budget deficits down the road. And what has it done?? Again, nothing except keep the gov gravy train rolling, on the backs of honest taxpayers. Who paid for that housing rebate? Car rebate? Large appliance rebate? All of us. Yet we all don't share in the gift.

So now the feds are not only running their OWN budget deficits-they are now running budget deficits for states too-which EVERY American has to pay for.

Time to stop the gimmicks and take our medicine.

If we cut gov employment comp 10%-15% we would be riding a tsunami of propsperity out of this mess.......but stopping the scams is not in the cards im afraid. The JW's and JF's of the world have bribed too many greedy politicians.

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Don Bauder April 28, 2010 @ 9:35 p.m.

Response to post #7: The federal government's commitment to bail out the bankrupt states is one reason that the economic growth in this recovery will probably be very slow -- maybe 2% a year. Best, Don Bauder

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