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Andrea Tevlin, San Diego's budget analyst, too busy to talk
A simple monthly chart of the Housing construction Fed Data Series and the residential contruction index, $HGX, would have clearly and unmistakeably shown the beginning of a major collapse in the housing bubble by June 2006. Several residential housing stocks like KBH, CTX, LEN and DHI showed similar patterns. Anyone charged with Pension Fund Management should have been watching and deciding to exit the Reits markets by these publicly available charts. See www.Economagic.com. Simply using a 50 cross 200 daily moving average on stocks and other asset classes like bonds and commodities should have induced astute money managers to safe money market funds. The typical 'Buy and hold' strategy that has gripped the money managers and investors for the last 26 years is inadequate in this sideways stagflation environment that could last till 2020. One cannot label these money Pension managers corrupt or crooked. But one might argue them unwitting victims of programmed incompetence, though they would plead otherwise. We can only judge by the results, and 40% losses are convicting.— December 4, 2008 11:29 a.m.