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Data provided by the California Association of Realtors show that resale activity dropped 5.8% between April and May of this year and now lags 14.4% behind 2010’s pace, a drop that could largely be attributed to federal homebuyer incentives in place during the same period last year.

The state’s median home price was $291,760, down 0.7% from last month and 10.9% from $327,460 in May 2010. Locally, DataQuick info paints a somewhat brighter picture for San Diego County, reporting a year-over-year drop of only 4.4% (from $340,000 to $325,000).

More localized markets varied, however, with the average of 137 El Cajon sales coming in at $252,000, off over 18% from last year. Nineteen sales in Rancho Santa Fe averaged $2,100,000, up almost 42% from last year’s $1,480,000 average.

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Comments

SurfPuppy619 June 17, 2011 @ 11:30 p.m.

No jobs, no recovery.

No recovery, no housing boom.

No housing boom, no construction jobs which ALWAYS pulls us out of recession.

Say good-bye to Obama, no re-election IMO.

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SurfPuppy619 June 19, 2011 @ 9:01 p.m.

I think we are close to the bottom now = or reality.

The question is how long we will hang out at the bottom, a long long time IMO.

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Twister June 19, 2011 @ 2:46 p.m.

Thanks to the alert administrator for removing the blatant, if not predatory, ad. However, I wish I had noted the web address given so I can avoid it and warn my young friends. I would also like to know the name of the loan brokerage outfit that generated it.

But don't, above all, kick the poster out. Mine the data. I shall be more attentive in the future. Now that he/she is exposed, the handle will likely change, so we should all be alert to content . . .

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Twister June 19, 2011 @ 11:08 p.m.

Short-term "stimulus" under sustained downturns are bound to produce mere blips.

As to the long-term, there must be a basis for it in the future that is not related to housing construction, which will trade off, not into increased home sales, but further depression of the market--and, in one counting on construction activity to bring it up, a further depression of home sales and the economy at large, in rough proportion.

There are not enough data in this piece to come to any conclusion, but IF the Rancho Santa Fe data and the El Cajon data are quantitatively proportional and representative, the overall drop would be nearer 25% than 18. My guess is that these trends will continue to fall/rise in rough proportion to the established trend, because the El Cajon (representative of the lower-end) will continue to fall as qualified buyers/sales continue (possibly increasingly) plummet, as there would be a smaller market as speculators attempt to flip them quickly at higher prices to fewer qualified buyers (except other speculators--fat chance of that). If this happens, we may see an accelerated drop as bottom feeders get cold feet, causing a flooded market and resulting panic. The effect on the overall local economy will only serve to depress the market further unless other sectors pick up, but as they themselves are dependent upon the housing sector, that will be a difficult climb of any significance, particularly as the military-industrial complex follows leads like that of Boeing. Given the composition and recent history of the SCOTUS, the chance of it supporting the Boeing employees will have about as much chance as a scoop of ice-cream in a South Carolina August.

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Dave Rice June 21, 2011 @ 6:11 p.m.

Astute observations, particularly the comment about the stimulus - it appears to have caused a false sense of values leveling off prematurely, leading us to the 'double dip' we're currently seeing.

This article certainly doesn't go into enough depth to thoroughly analyze value trends - I used El Cajon and Rancho Santa Fe as examples because the 137 sales in El Cajon and respective 19 in RSF are a significant enough portion of overall inventory to draw simple conclusions - many more units in El Cajon accounts for the larger sample size. My data comes from http://www.dqnews.com/Charts/Monthly-Charts/CA-City-Charts/ZIPCAR.aspx - visit for a full breakdown by area, but be wary of locales without at least a dozen units sold in a given period. The smaller the sample size the more likely one sale could skew the data on all the rest, obviously.

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