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Economists are rhapsodizing this morning (May 7) over April's rise in 290,000 jobs (224,000 after temporary Census workers are excluded). March job gains were revised upward to 230,000 from 162,000. The unemployment rate rose to 9.9% from 9.7% because, said the government, a flood of people entered the workforce. Economists are downplaying the bad news: the underemployment rate, which includes people who can only find part-time jobs and those who have been too discouraged to look for a job in the last four weeks, rose to 17.1% from 16.9%. Of the 15.3 million unemployed, a record 45.9% have been out of work more than half a year. The average workweek rose only 0.1 hour to 34.1 hours. In a healthy economy, this number is 37 hours, according to MarketWatch.

Today's report, in my own opinion, simply does not jibe with Wednesday's report of private sector employment by Automatic Data Processing. This report had private sector jobs rising only 32,000. One statistic that bothers me is the government's birth/death adjustment model. This is a computerized estimate of jobs created by small business that are not captured in standard reporting procedures. Again, this is a computer ESTIMATE -- it is not a count of actual jobs. The government estimated that 188,000 jobs uncounted jobs were created by small business in April -- larger than anything for many months. For example, the March number was 81,000. The Automatic Data Processing report indicated that of the 32,000 job gains in April, a mere 1,000 were in small businesses. Although this is not an apples to apples comparison, admittedly, those two numbers do not add up.

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Comments

Anon92107 May 7, 2010 @ 11:57 a.m.

Don, if you can find some spare time, you might create a new edition of "How to Lie with Statistics" or "Damned Lies and Statistics" and/or "How to Lie with Charts" or "How to Smell a Rat, Five Signs of Financial Fraud."

Or write your own book on "Larceny, San Diego Style" which would fill volumes.

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Don Bauder May 7, 2010 @ 12:13 p.m.

Response to post #1: The trouble with naming a book "Larceny, San Diego Style," is that you automatically limit your audience to San Diegans. It seems to me that there is already a well-known book, "How to Lie with Statistics." Best, Don Bauder

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paul May 7, 2010 @ 2:27 p.m.

The title of this AP article today pretty well sums it up:

"Largest hiring burst in years, but jobless rate up"

From the article:

"The improving picture caused so many more people to pour into the labor force in search of employment that the jobless rate rose from 9.7 percent to 9.9 percent."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100507/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/us_economy

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David Dodd May 7, 2010 @ 2:36 p.m.

Yeah, I'm noticing that the media is playing this as though it's good news in some way, because more people are actually "interested" in finding a job. As though, when the sale of lottery tickets go up, it's because more people are "interested" in winning the lottery. The reality is that jobless claims have risen because more people are currently unemployed than they were last month, I have no idea how they can put a positive spin on that. I mean, the same people play the lottery every week, they simply spend more on it when the jackpot rises.

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Don Bauder May 7, 2010 @ 6:58 p.m.

Response to post #3: Yes, when more join the workforce looking for jobs, the unemployment rate often goes up, as it did in April. I'm afraid the U.S. is stuck with high unemployment for several years. And because the Fed says it will continue giving money away to banks at roughly 0% interest as long as unemployment is high, there aren't that many rooting for unemployment to go down. They SAY they want it to go down. But do they? Best, Don Bauder

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Don Bauder May 7, 2010 @ 7:01 p.m.

Response to post #4: The number of jobs created is definitely positive news, although certain factors such as the birth/death adjustment model look dubious. Best, Don Baude

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clockerbob May 8, 2010 @ 8:47 a.m.

President Obama, as de-facto chairman of Citi and BOA along with GM ,GMAC and armed services ads controls the largest block of ad revenue for TV & Newspapers.

Through heavy and unwarranted advertising, large banks have become Federal conduits for subsidizing Tv & Newspapers This bail-out has seen the TV media remain aloft from the lay-offs and cost cutting that other industries and individual citizens have faced. It has enabled the administration to census http://wikileaks.org/ from TV screens or discussion.

Citi and BOA are big players in socialism.

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Don Bauder May 8, 2010 @ 11:42 a.m.

Response to post #7: I look at Bloomberg during the day, and CNBC to a lesser extent. Yes, they are cheerleaders, but they also get into some of the tough topics. Best, Don Bauder

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realnews May 9, 2010 @ 8:34 p.m.

Jobs? Yowzsa! See an insight to Judge Salcido's lawsuit against her boss, Peter Deddeh, at www.SanDiegojudges.com Once again, U-T reporters missed it. (Okay, I know I shouldn't be surprised.)

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Don Bauder May 10, 2010 @ 7:17 a.m.

Response to post #9: That does look like an interesting one. Best, Don Bauder

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a2zresource May 11, 2010 @ 10:05 a.m.

"One statistic that bothers me is the government's birth/death adjustment model. This is a computerized estimate of jobs created by small business that are not captured in standard reporting procedures. Again, this is a computer ESTIMATE -- it is not a count of actual jobs. The government estimated that 188,000 jobs uncounted jobs were created by small business in April -- larger than anything for many months."

I am intrigued and fascinated by the possibility that these estimates might actually include people who have dropped out of the traditional job market in favor of joining the underground, cash-only or barter-trade economy, with no positive impact on local, state or federal tax revenues.

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SurfPuppy619 May 11, 2010 @ 12:26 p.m.

The main problem with current job creation is that the jobs are;

a) temporary gov jobs (think census)

b) perm. gov jobs (think city, county, state)

c) low paying private sector service jobs (think tourism, hospitality, foodservice)

There is little to NO job creation in the private sector that pays a living wage, and I would guess (yes, just a guess) that the vast majority of private sector jobs pay little to NO benefits since 80% of those jobs come from small business.

I had to laugh at these (entry level) gov job opening;

Published: May 10, 2010

City receives 262 applications for two jobs

LAGUNA BEACH – As Orange County unemployment hovers near 10 percent, Laguna Beach is seeing more applications for two entry-level positions than ever before.

The city received 262 applications for two recreation supervisor positions that will open in July when two longtime employees retire.

"We've never seen anything like it," said City Manager Ken Frank

http://www.ocregister.com/news/city-248101-applications-beach.html

Now, are any of our esteemed public employees posting here going to try to claim that the public sector pays less, or cannot get qualified applicants?????????????????????????????????

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Don Bauder May 11, 2010 @ 8:42 p.m.

Response to post #11: It's quite possible that these birth/death adjustment model estimates pick up people in the subterranean economy. I do not know. If you google it, you can pick up more information, but I have never seen anything on that aspect. Best, Don Bauder

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Don Bauder May 11, 2010 @ 8:43 p.m.

Response to post #12: JW and JF haven't made that claim for some time. Best, Don Bauder

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SurfPuppy619 May 12, 2010 @ 7:31 a.m.

JW and JF haven't made that claim for some time.

Only b/c it has not come up in some time.

Those two, and all their fraudstir buddies in the PD/FD, will not hesitate to stoop to any low to try to keep their scam going-at the expense of this city, it's residents, it's residents children and their grandchildren.

JW and JF don't care about this society as a whole, they would drive it into BK for generations (or two or three) as long as it allows them to can continue to ride their gravy train of fraud.

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Don Bauder May 12, 2010 @ 10:46 a.m.

Response to post #15: I wouldn't call the city employees scamsters. They are people being vastly overpaid with excessively generous retirement benefits, and they refuse to give in. Best, Don Bauder

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