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Employment Numbers Worse Than Reported, but Main Street's Pain Is Wall Street's Gain
By Don Bauder | Posted November 6, 2009, 7:30 a.m.
The U.S. unemployment rate surged to 10.2% in October, up from 9.8% in September, as the nation lost 190,000 jobs. Economists had expected job loss of 150,000 to 175,000. The number of unemployed persons rose by 558,000 to 15.7 million. The unemployment rate among Hispanics is 13.7% and among African-Americans 15.7%.
The most important percentage continued to rise. The underemployment rate, which includes the jobless, part-time workers, and those who have given up searching for a job, rose to 17.5%.
The grim news for Main Street is actually worse. The government has a computerized number it plugs in called the birth/death adjustment model, which supposedly reflects the job situation at companies that have just been formed. This reported a GAIN of 86,000 jobs in October. But the number is not credible. On Wednesday, the ADP Report of private sector employment reported a LOSS of 75,000 small business jobs in October. These numbers are not exactly apples/oranges, but they are close.
Stocks initially sold off mildly on the news, but as this is written, are up. Wall Street gamblers exulted this morning that rising unemployment means that the Federal Reserve will continue loaning money at essentially a zero interest rate. (The Federal Reserve had indicated this earlier in the week.) Now some say zero rates will continue into 2011. This means that big institutions can borrow dollars at zero rates and gamble in various markets. This is a worldwide phenomenon, as central banks pursue easy money policies. Globally, stocks, bonds, and commodities are all surging despite (or really because of) the grim economic news. The mentality on Wall Street is "sell the dollar and buy anything." The dollar is cratering. This will end badly, but nobody knows when.
Response to posts #38 & 42:
Re: Social Darwinism update by Herbert Spencer, English philosopher who coined the phrase "survival of the fittest"--
"...society is constantly excreting its unhealthy, imbecile, slow, vacillating, faithless members (like members of Congress, CA legislature and SD City Hall) - absolutely encouraging the multiplication of the reckless and incompetent by offering them an unfailing provision and discourages the multiplication of the competent an provident".
So I guess we should blame all our problems on those who have no choice but to keep voting for "unhealthy, imbecile, slow, vacillating, faithless members" of congress, legislature and city hall.
By Anon92107 11:14 a.m., Nov 10, 2009 > Report it
Response to post #36: I walked right into that one. Congrats. Best, Don Bauder
By dbauder 8:51 p.m., Nov 9, 2009 > Report it
Response to post #37: You've given him latitude. He may interpret as a corner bar. Best, Don Bauder
By dbauder 8:52 p.m., Nov 9, 2009 > Report it
Response to post #38: Good points. Reject Darwin's undisputed natural theory and adapt a crackpot one. More than a century ago, railroad moguls embraced Social Darwinism. They convinced themselves that it was their own brains and hard work that got them where they were. In the case of the railroads, it was corporate welfare. Best, Don Bauder
By dbauder 8:56 p.m., Nov 9, 2009 > Report it
Response to pot #39: I haven't heard that this is unprecedented, but it might be. Best, Don Bauder
By dbauder 8:58 p.m., Nov 9, 2009 > Report it
I'm pretty sure I'm not.
By russl 12:35 a.m., Nov 11, 2009 > Report it
Liar, liar, pants on fire! :-P
By PistolPete 12:46 a.m., Nov 11, 2009 > Report it
Response to post #73: "...Tell me the honest truth, prithee." Best, Don Bauder
By dbauder 1:42 p.m., Nov 11, 2009 > Report it
Response to post #74: One exclamation point will do, thank you. Best, Don Bauder
By dbauder 1:44 p.m., Nov 11, 2009 > Report it
Has there ever been a time in American history where unemployment benefits have been paid for an equivalent of )almost) two years? (99 weeks)
It's typically 26 weeks (6 months). Now we are paying benefits for as much time as it takes to earn an Associates Degree. Two years of benefits seems unprecedented.
These are symbolic of an unemployment problem that is lingering and not healing.
If the economy was improving, healing, hiring, why did Obama sign this bill just last week?
By Ponzi 11:28 p.m., Nov 9, 2009 > Report it
Nobama's a moron. I'm ashamed to say I voted for him. I guess I just got caught up in all the HOPE hype. It's ok though. I'll be voting Republican in the mid terms and Independent in the 2012 elections.
By PistolPete 11:34 p.m., Nov 9, 2009 > Report it
"Yeah, but it is all from the public employees....so it doesn't count!!!!!" That pretty much poisons the well now, don't it? ("Poisoning the well": time-honored rhetorical device beloved of lawyers.)
By russl 1:40 a.m., Nov 11, 2009 > Report it
I preface this by saying that the economy is not wonderful. But most indicators show that, at least recently, the down-trend has stopped, and a very slight uptrend seems to be occurring.
Except:
Employment has not, historically, followed that same trend in step with economic recovery. Historically, employment has always lagged between six months and two years behind all economic recoveries from recession and depression.
I'm not saying that this is a good thing, just pointing out some economic facts. If we pretend that we are beginning the phase of economic recovery, then employment will certainly continue to lag until it doesn't. If this is, in fact, a simply a slight nudge up in economic indicators and even more of a plunge follows, then unemployment could reach 20% or more. I am personally inclined more toward the former than the latter.
By refriedgringo 11:43 p.m., Nov 9, 2009 > Report it
Response to post #44: The only part of the economy that is healing is the financial industry -- the same bunch of sharks that nearly drove us off a cliff. I hate to keep repeating myself, but the Federal Reserve is giving money away by keeping interest rates at almost zero. Banks (including Wall Street firms that should never have been permitted to be considered commercial banks) borrow at zero and gamble in various markets -- stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, emerging markets -- and know if their bets backfire, the government will bail them out. This permits hedge funds to get money for next to nothing. They are also gambling with money they paid nothing for. Meanwhile, what is happening to consumers? Can you get a loan for zero interest rates? Banks are raising interest rates on credit cards to unbelievable levels, and the government lets it happen. There are a few initiatives to help those facing foreclosure, and needing longer unemployment benefits, as you mention. But these are drops in the bucket compared with the money showered on Wall Street. Why does this happen? Because Wall Street owns Congress. There is no progressive or populist movement as there was more than a century ago. People know it's futile. This is not change we can believe in. This is the same old corporate welfare as usual. Best, Don Bauder
By dbauder 7:39 a.m., Nov 10, 2009 > Report it
Response to post #45: Remember, all these Wall Street bailouts started under Republican Bush. Don't you remember Paulson and Bernanke bailing out Wall Street in late 2008? Best, Don Bauder
By dbauder 7:42 a.m., Nov 10, 2009 > Report it
"You can hardly call Ronnie Raygun, who was the nations pioneer in running gigantic budget (and trade) deficits, a fiscal conservative.
Nor GW Bushie, who inherited a BALANCED budget from a democratic President Clinton and promptly proceeded to start running record budget (and trade) deficits.
You may have been able to make that claim before Raygun, but that was the last time.
Today we have "tax and spend" democrats and "borrow and spend" republicans-there is not much difference between the two.
We needed someone like Ross Perot (read LIKE, not actually Ross) who was willing to get down and dirty with the budget deficits. Perot's plan, if you recall, was to raise the gas tax 50 cents per gallon to fix the deficit while capping gov spending-which is what we really need.
We need a state and national Gov spending cap where the budget cannot exceed 5% growth from the previous year."
Good point, SP.
By PistolPete 1:25 p.m., Nov 10, 2009 > Report it
Oh I remember. I just think the Republican thieves are a bit more honest(read easily stupid)in their thievery than the Democrats are. That and the Republicans are a bit more like I am in being fiscally conservative.
By PistolPete 7:48 a.m., Nov 10, 2009 > Report it
Response to post #46: You are quite right that historically, employment growth follows recovery with a lag. Today, economists intone the mantra every day. It's like, "There will be pie in the sky when you die." But will employment growth follow an extremely tepid recovery, which we face? Today, with consumer spending more than 70% of the U.S. economy, we can't necessarily count on past economic trends repeating. They will to some extent, but weak employment may last for a long time. Remember, we have shipped much of our manufacturing base offshore since the 1980s. Best, Don Bauder
By dbauder 7:50 a.m., Nov 10, 2009 > Report it
Response to post #51: The recession of the early 1990s was nowhere near as bad as this one. This one began with a collapse of financial institutions. That makes it quite different from other recessions. Best, Don Bauder
By dbauder 4:33 p.m., Nov 10, 2009 > Report it
Response to post #52: When financial institutions can borrow at zero percent interest, there is bound to be some improvement in the economy. If you take away the madcap printing of money by the Fed, and the madcap spending of money by the federal government, do you have a significant recovery? Goodness no. Best, Don bauder
By dbauder 4:37 p.m., Nov 10, 2009 > Report it
Response to post #53: As long as the tax and spend Democrats are taxing those with the highest incomes, I prefer their approach to that of the borrow and spend Republicans. I would like to see higher taxes on large corporations, as well as on the very high bracket individuals. The tax code should return to the more progressive levels of yore, although I wouldn't want to see a 90% tax on the highest incomes, as we had under Nixon. Best, Don Bauder
By dbauder 5:05 p.m., Nov 10, 2009 > Report it
Response to post #54: By becoming treasury secretary, Paulson was able to shelter an enormous amount of his riches from taxation. I would have to look that up to give it to you exactly. But he was able to put his fortune in a blind trust and shelter it, as I remember. Best, Don Bauder
By dbauder 5:09 p.m., Nov 10, 2009 > Report it
Response to post #55: That was back when society excreted the imbeciles. Now, as you point out, it puts them in high office. Best, Don Bauder
By dbauder 5:13 p.m., Nov 10, 2009 > Report it
Response to post #56: SP has been getting criticism, but in this case he gets praise. Best, Don Bauder
By dbauder 5:16 p.m., Nov 10, 2009 > Report it
I would like to see higher taxes on large corporations, as well as on the very high bracket individuals. The tax code should return to the more progressive levels of yore, although I wouldn't want to see a 90% tax on the highest incomes, as we had under Nixon. Best, Don Bauder
By dbauder
==========================
70% of the Fortune 500 pay NO corporate income tax at all, zero, nothing nada.
I think it is 90% of the Fortune 500 pay less than 5% of profits in corporate income taxes.
it is an amazing statistic.
By SurfPuppy619 5:58 p.m., Nov 10, 2009 > Report it
SP has been getting criticism
By dbauder
=======================
Yeah, but it is all from the public employees....so it doesn't count!!!!!
We have our differences, and I can take all the name calling.
You can't have a thin skin in this game.
By SurfPuppy619 6:01 p.m., Nov 10, 2009 > Report it
Response to post #67: There. A definitive statement. Best, Don Bauder
By dbauder 10:36 a.m., Nov 11, 2009 > Report it
On Friday, November 6th, President Obama signed the most recent federal emergency unemployment compensation bill to pay an additional 20 weeks of UI benefits in high unemployment states. That means many people in California will collect up to 99 weeks of benefits. Has there ever been such a time this has happened before?
By Ponzi
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In the 1993-94 recession UI benefits were 6 months, followed by a 6 month extention, followed by a 13 week extension, which would be 65 weeks- less than 99, but still a substantial number.
By SurfPuppy619 10:35 a.m., Nov 10, 2009 > Report it
Response to post #68: If every liar's pants caught on fire, the trousers business would be the most lucrative industry in the U.S. Best, Don Bauder
By dbauder 10:38 a.m., Nov 11, 2009 > Report it
Response to post #69: Spoken like a bureaucrat. Now I suspect you may be a government employee. Come clean, Russl. Best, Don Bauder
By dbauder 10:40 a.m., Nov 11, 2009 > Report it
I preface this by saying that the economy is not wonderful. But most indicators show that, at least recently, the down-trend has stopped, and a very slight uptrend seems to be occurring.
=========================
I totally disagree.
The downturn has slowed down, but has NOT stopped and is certainly not digging it's way out.
UI is still going UP.
Foreclosures are still going UP.
No new jobs are being created anywhere-in fact we are still LOSING jobs.
There are a significant number of people who are not in the foreclosure process, but are just treading water in an upside down home where they owe MORE than the value of the property-that is a huge potential problem.
No, we are in a serious downturn and it will be, at the earliest, the last quarter of 2010 before we TRULY start to dig in an upward direction.
ANY recovery comes down one just ONE major factor-creation of jobs, that is the majic word-JOBS-particularly by the 80% of the economy which are small businesses, who at the moment are in a credit crunch and are not being given access to credit by the commercial banks.
By SurfPuppy619 10:42 a.m., Nov 10, 2009 > Report it
SDaniels has a preoccupation with these types of necklaces, assuming Fred is the one giving them to her :)
By SurfPuppy619 1:11 p.m., Nov 9, 2009 > Report it
There is a great new exhibit at the SDNMH on Darwin, and a major lesson to be learned is that it appears that the republican aristocracy is practicing social Darwinism where only the richest and most powerful shall survive while the poor and the weak shall be left to pain, and death.
While the religious conservative evangelical core constituency enabled the destruction caused by the Bush Autocracy, they still don’t comprehend that the republican aristocracy will flush them into the sewers without hesitation once they overthrow the brain-dead democrat majorities one last time.
Republican aristocratic gains shall indeed come at the expense of Main Street's pain, with higher levels of un/underemployment than our worst economic nightmares since the Great Depression.
By Anon92107 1:20 p.m., Nov 9, 2009 > Report it
Response to post #63: I don't think it's 70% paying no taxes. I believe it is lower than that. I have those numbers somewhere. But it is disgusting. Best, Don Bauder
By dbauder 8:37 p.m., Nov 10, 2009 > Report it
Response from post #64: I don't think the criticism is ALL from public employees. I have not seen anything indicating that Russl is a public employee, for example. Best, Don Bauder
By dbauder 8:39 p.m., Nov 10, 2009 > Report it
re:#29: I'll buy and read your book, Mr. Bauder, if you'll expand your urban lexicon along with me here. I learned about teabags from John Waters films, but am afraid to say that the first time I heard Fred "Humungous" Williams's reference a "pearl necklace," I innocently asked if he would be stopping by Cartier's ;)
re:#30: As usual, the Puppy is overactive in imagination, and must be sent to the corner for ten minutes. Those ten minutes start--NOW.
By SDaniels 2:55 p.m., Nov 9, 2009 > Report it
That and the Republicans are a bit more like I am in being fiscally conservative.
By PistolPete
============================
You can hardly call Ronnie Raygun, who was the nations pioneer in running gigantic budget (and trade) deficits, a fiscal conservative.
Nor GW Bushie, who inherited a BALANCED budget from a democratic President Clinton and promptly proceeded to start running record budget (and trade) deficits.
You may have been able to make that claim before Raygun, but that was the last time.
Today we have "tax and spend" democrats and "borrow and spend" republicans-there is not much difference between the two.
We needed someone like Ross Perot (read LIKE, not actually Ross) who was willing to get down and dirty with the budget deficits. Perot's plan, if you recall, was to raise the gas tax 50 cents per gallon to fix the deficit while capping gov spending-which is what we really need.
We need a state and national Gov spending cap where the budget cannot exceed 5% growth from the previous year.
By SurfPuppy619 10:49 a.m., Nov 10, 2009 > Report it
Don't you remember Paulson and Bernanke bailing out Wall Street in late 2008? Best, Don Bauder
By dbauder
========================
And that right there is our PROBLEM in a nutshell.
Losers like those two, along with Timothy Geitner, all Goldman Sachs yahoos, who are doing nothing but feathering the beds of the investment banks that pay them and their buddies millions, Goldman Sachs being the worst of the cronyism examples, at the expense of the nation.
Who leaves a job paying $65 million a year at Goldman to head Treasury for $191K per year, NO ONE, unless they are pulling strings to make it worth it-which they obviously are.
94% of Americans were AGAINST the TARP bailout-yet it passes-how the hell does something like that happen???????? Cronyism and money to buy off politicians is how-and it is destroying the country (mush like public unions are destroying California).
We need to get those losers out of power.
By SurfPuppy619 10:54 a.m., Nov 10, 2009 > Report it
(#72) And I will, Don. I do not speak bureaucratese, I do not speak it on the seas. I do not speak it on TV; I do not speak it, Donald B.
By russl 12:28 p.m., Nov 11, 2009 > Report it
HA!!!!!!!!!! :-D
By PistolPete 12:39 p.m., Nov 11, 2009 > Report it
Response to post #30: Knit one, pearl necklace two. Best, Don Bauder
By dbauder 4:01 p.m., Nov 9, 2009 > Report it
The aristocracy is manipulating the evangelicals disgracefully. And it does smack of Social Darwinism, a philosophical fraud that should have died a century ago. Best, Don Bauder
By dbauder 4:05 p.m., Nov 9, 2009 > Report it
Response to post #32: I have to watch my step. "Pearl necklace" may have some kind of a shocking, secret meaning. Best, Don Bauder
By dbauder 4:09 p.m., Nov 9, 2009 > Report it
re: #35: ""Pearl necklace" may have some kind of a shocking, secret meaning."
Yes, I hear it's a real "choker."
By SDaniels 5:32 p.m., Nov 9, 2009 > Report it
As usual, the Puppy is overactive in imagination, and must be sent to the corner for ten minutes. Those ten minutes start--NOW.
By SDaniels
===================
:)
By SurfPuppy619 6:16 p.m., Nov 9, 2009 > Report it
10.2% is the manipulated gov number, the real number is double that-at least.
We are 12 months away from a revocery minimum.
4th quarter of 2010 is my guesstimate on when we start to climb out of the hole Wall Street/Congress put us in.
By SurfPuppy619 7:33 a.m., Nov 6, 2009 > Report it
During the 1930's depression, the government feared urban unrest, especially among young men. The Civilian Conservation Corps was set up, ostensibly to put those young men to work and enable them to send some money home if they so desired. What it actually did was get them out of the cities, stashed in remote rural areas, and kept them tired out and disconnected from agitators. It might also be noted that the Army ran the CCC camps and ran them rather like military posts, i.e. disciplined.
If these unemployment figures don't start to improve soon, or worsen, the fear of urban unrest could become well founded. I wonder what the federal government will try to do to prevent that bleak prospect?
By Visduh 10:11 a.m., Nov 6, 2009 > Report it
Response to post #1: The big swingers on Wall Street would prefer that the economy remain weak, perhaps through 2011 or 2012. They don't necessarily want the economy to be contracting -- they just want extremely tepid growth, so the Fed will keep short term interest rates around zero. They can borrow at zero rates and gamble in various markets, knowing that if their gambles fail, the government will bail them out. Great deal, huh? If the economy grows briskly, then rates will have to go up and the dollar will strengthen. Now, stocks, commodities and bonds are all feasting off the weak dollar. As the U.S. keeps printing an ocean of dollars, the liquidity soars, buoying asset prices. But the liquidity is doing little to improve the economy, because the banks are parsimonious making loans. Best, Don Bauder
By dbauder 10:40 a.m., Nov 6, 2009 > Report it
Response to post #2: Good analysis. The CCC kept people off the street, and kept them from staging urban protests. Will it happen again? I don't know: remember, unemployment hit 25% in the Great Depression. Today, the underemployment rate at 17.5% is approaching that number, but not the unemployment rate, which is rigged. One of the things that bothers me most is that when the big banks make loans, they are making them for non-productive or counter-productive purposes such as mergers and acquisitions or leveraged buyouts. Best, Don Bauder
By dbauder 10:45 a.m., Nov 6, 2009 > Report it
They can borrow at zero rates and gamble in various markets, knowing that if their gambles fail, the government will bail them out. Great deal, huh?
=================
It stinks to high heaven.
The investment banks like Goldman and Morgan should have never received TARP money, and they should NOT be given accesss to zero interest rate fed $$$.
And the commercial banks should be given an ultimatium, start giving out loans are give back all the TARP money.
No one should have access to zero interest rate fed money, 1% minimum should be the floor. We have commercial bansk wrecking epoples lives with 30% interest on credit cards while they borrow at zero, what kind of crazy whacked up world do we live in today??
Wall Steet has basically co opted the gov IMO-and if it is not fixed soon we are doomed.
By SurfPuppy619 5:51 p.m., Nov 6, 2009 > Report it
Response to post #5: Agreed. Investment banks should never have been permitted to register as banks, thus being able to get cheap money from the Fed. Also agreed: commercial banks should start lending money or told to pay back TARP. Agreed: it is reprehensible that banks are borrowing at zero and gambling while charging usurious interest rates to credit card holders. Finally, agreed: Wall Street has taken over the government, and that is truly remarkable since the bandits almost led us over the cliff a year ago. Best, Don Bauder
By dbauder 8:08 p.m., Nov 6, 2009 > Report it
So-called "social darwinism" is the notion that we evolved thanks to our ability to be cruel, dominate others, and savagely attack the weak.
Actual evolutionary theory notes that there are far more adaptive behaviors related to cooperation. H.Sapiens is a tribal, group based creature. We NEED others to survive.
It's a devious trick, what the establishment politicians have done to manipulate the religious into simultaneously denouncing actual darwinism while embracing the nastiest distortion of his ideas as a justification for thefts committed by insiders.
By Fred_Williams 7:02 p.m., Nov 9, 2009 > Report it
I read somewhere recently that one of the effects of white collar workers becoming underemployed long term is that recruiting volunteers for political campaigns has never been easier.
Intelligent, reliable, hard working, efficient and well connected professionals who would rather interact than sit alone at home can make a big difference politically.
Imagine how effective a political force these underemployed can potentially become. Consider the "teabaggers". How many of them are able to participate precisely because they're underemployed?
By Fred_Williams 9:38 p.m., Nov 6, 2009 > Report it
Response to post #7: You know, I had never thought of that. A lot of teabaggers may be unemployed or underemployed people with time on their hands. A lot of political workers may be, too. Best, Don Bauder
By dbauder 7:14 a.m., Nov 7, 2009 > Report it
Keep in mind that these numbers are soley based upon people filing or claiming unemployment benefits. This does not include people who received severance packages, have exhausted their unemployment benefits, or simply did not qualify for unemployment benefits.
By jmtrudeau 9:43 a.m., Nov 7, 2009 > Report it
(#7 & 8) Aren't those teabaggers kind of sorry they chose that name? (Somebody explain this to Don -- off-list.)
By russl 11:20 a.m., Nov 7, 2009 > Report it
Why go off-list?
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=teabaggers
2nd definition down, Mr.Bauder. :-D
By PistolPete 11:33 a.m., Nov 7, 2009 > Report it
Response to post #9: In compiling the unemployment numbers, the government does two surveys: one is of employers, and another is of households. I honestly don't know if one has to be on the unemployment rolls to get captured by the stats in both of these surveys. Best, Don Bauder
By dbauder 12:49 p.m., Nov 7, 2009 > Report it
Response to posts #s 10 and 11: Not surprisingly, I knew nothing about that more obscure definition. The whole idea repulses me. But then so do those shouting contests that the teabaggers of the first definition put on. Best, Don Bauder
By dbauder 12:54 p.m., Nov 7, 2009 > Report it
dbauder - You are correct about the way the survey is conducted. I brain-farted on that one. Its the economic forecasters and investment speculators that use the UEI fillings as a sign to artificially raise prices on commodities. Example - Report comes out today that UEI applications declined last month, oil goes up $2.90/barrel that day even if the us dollar gains.
By jmtrudeau 1:35 p.m., Nov 7, 2009 > Report it
Response to post #14: The economic forecasters and the speculators twist the statistics in any way that suits their purposes. It is a shame that the financial media, including the business TV stations, give so much time and credence to those who are spinning the stats to their own purposes. Best, Don Bauder
By dbauder 7:49 p.m., Nov 7, 2009 > Report it
The peasants seem to be getting used to $3.00 a gallon for gas even though they were horrified by the $4.00 a gallon gas. Americas new virtue, mass acceptance and complacency, is well entrenched. This generation is too bust playing video games and super-sizing their food to get up an start protesting the government for continuing the war and flunking in economics. It’s almost been a year, even though I voted for Obama, I’d like to know what the hell he has done in 10 months?
My bet… unemployment is not going to go down. We have a growing population, too much immigration, to many refugees and too many foreign students and H-1B workers for the existing unemployed to have a chance. What is going to grow our economy? Inflation? That is what’s next and it’s going to be the mother of inflation.
The march of jobs being shipped to India and China continues each day. There is zero migration of jobs to the US. The biggest export of the US is job and the biggest import is poverty in the form of bringing in people that tax our socials services far more than they contribute. Look at California now. It’s a view into what will eventually happen to every state in the union given enough time to be invaded by immigration and exodus of business.
This is a different kind of recession that will not end well. It’ is a falsely propped up dollar based on oil, oil that the US doesn’t export anymore. Why is oil based on the dollar anyway? Also, we are not creating any new industries or jobs. We are regulating, taxing and chasing business out of the county. Wall Street may be in the US, but they are not on the side of Americans.
Remember when John Walton of Wal-Mart used to proclaim to “buy American?” He used to have giant American flags hanging in his stores. He said buy American and he sold American? You witnessed the biggest “bait and switch” and treason in the history of America. They fooled us all and began selling us junk from China. They should hang a giant communist China flag in the store now. It’s 80% of what they sell.
By Ponzi 10:19 p.m., Nov 7, 2009 > Report it
cont....
This is a country in decline. I know it, you know it and everyone that comes her from somewhere else knows it as they try to grab or take something from it or it’s system before it’s all gone.
Real estate will always go up because population and immigration will always increase. But individual real estate ownership may not increase much. The people with the wealth will buy foreclosures and rentals and the rift between rich and poor will get wider. Most of the people cleaning up right now in real estate are investors who are flipping or renting the properties lost by the less fortunate.
I’m sorry this sounds negative, but I have been watching this decline for along time. American democracy relies on an active and youthful, peaceful and perhaps disobedient protest, to keep the government in line and tuned to the current social mindset. This generation is lazy. Content with fast food, computer games, not reading, and other habits which have made them complacent. They are not challenging government. They picked Obama and then went back home to play video games and text on their cell phones.
We, as a nation, are in grave danger of collapsing if we do not have strong and able leadership to move this country forward. I am really rather frightened when I look at these people and think they are going to be the pool of people that are going to fill the positions to manage this country in the next 30 to 50 years.
So that’s my rant/ I feel when you look at this blog a year from now, my prediction will be true. The unemployment rate will still be 10% or so. It will now be that way forever and only get worse and never better.
By Ponzi 10:20 p.m., Nov 7, 2009 > Report it
As an honorable shellback with two WestPac/IO cruises under my salty belt, I endeavor to employ effective invective and practical profanity in place of euphemism and obscurity.
I'm led by the outstanding example of Command Master Chief Charles O. Gaylor of VF-211, the World Famous Fighting Checkmates, to whom I owe all my skills in specific slander, accurate abuse, and excellence in execrable utterances.
Master Chief Gaylor would agree today that Wall Street players and their political prostitutes deserve far more abuse than could be mustered by crusty sailors cursing away at the toil of arduous sea-duty.
Surely santorum shall one day slide down the gullets of the greedy and grotesque clique that feasts on the misfortunes of the many. Like the Senators under Caligula, their wives shall one day wear pearl necklaces as wide and thick as any adorning Barbara Bush.
But not yet. For now they still hold far too many under their sway.
Teabagging seems to be protecting those who would never give even a reach around to the down and out. The only time these politicians and businessmen shake with the unemployed is just after urinating.
After being teabagged, the victims are outraged. They spit and curse and are ready to fight. The powers that be may find themselves surprised that their little prank ends up opening a whole can of whoop-ass.
By Fred_Williams 10:32 p.m., Nov 7, 2009 > Report it
Okay. Fred could you translate that into something? My friend, who is a Wookie, is confused too. It's hard to confuse a Wookie. Please help.
By Ponzi 11:10 p.m., Nov 7, 2009 > Report it
Ponzi, if I agree with your analysis of the current political situation, I'm tempted to say that social unrest is the predictable course we'll follow.
Whether that leads to revolution or devolution is the question.
When we gather up pitchforks, tar and feathers to chase the bankers from the temple, who takes charge?
Historically, it's more often the bad guys who are in place to pick up the pieces and restore order.
By Fred_Williams 11:18 p.m., Nov 7, 2009 > Report it
Response to post #16: I suspect that U.S. policymakers -- and those abroad, too -- have consciously decided that asset bubbles (stocks, bonds, commodities) are more politically palatable than inflation of goods and services. There is euphoria during the inflation of the bubbles and misery after they burst. But inflation brings misery for extended periods. So the countries and their central banks do what they can to steer the economy toward asset bubbles rather than toward inflation. The strategy may not work, of course. Best, Don Bauder
By dbauder 8 a.m., Nov 8, 2009 > Report it
Response to post #17: You have put your finger on a real danger. The Federal Reserve is deliberately inflating the bubble by stating that it will keep interest rates at effectively zero (short rates 0 to 0.25%) for an extended period. This means that well-heeled individuals and institutions can borrow at zero and buy foreclosed real estate with the idea of flipping it. The big financial institutions can borrow at zero and gamble in various markets with the full knowledge that if their gambles backfire, the government will bail them out. Where is the money flowing? Into leveraged buyouts, mergers -- non-productive and counter-productive activities that generate big bucks for Wall Street but reduce jobs in the population. Companies are not rehiring; they want to jack up their profits so CEOs can command even more ridiculous pay. So they are putting shareholders' interests in front of the interests of society. (They have already done so by shipping manufacturing jobs offshore for years.) I agree that unemployment and underemployment will continue rising. This will exacerbate social tensions. More and more people will figure out that Wall Street and corporations are feasting off Main Street's woes. It is not healthy. Best, Don Bauder
By dbauder 8:12 a.m., Nov 8, 2009 > Report it
Response to post #18: Fred, I don't find your utterances execrable. They are admirable and not detestable. Your line, "The only time these politicians and businessmen shake with the unemployed is when they are urinating," is absolutely classic. I may have a calligrapher put it to paper and hang a framed copy in my office. I must repeat the most poignant execrable non-utterances of this economic period. In a Congressional hearing, a Congressmember asked former Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson and still (unfortunately) Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke if Wall Street owed the U.S. an apology. Neither would answer the question. That moment told us everything we have to know. Best, Don Bauder
By dbauder 8:23 a.m., Nov 8, 2009 > Report it
Response to post #19: It should be obvious that I do not know what a wookie is. Best, Don Bauder
By dbauder 8:27 a.m., Nov 8, 2009 > Report it
Response to post #20: This brings to mind I class I had in the late 1950s at the University of Wisconsin. A history professor named Hesseltine, a great scholar and lecturer, was speaking about what happens when a revolution takes place. The university in those days had a number of communists. These were not Marxists (every university has Marxists to this day.) They were Bolsheviks -- real live Commies. Hesseltine, who was a great satirist, said, "When the Rooskies (Russians) take over," they will not reward the few U.S. commies, a distinct minority. The Russians will tap the existing establishment to run the country in a slightly different way. The Rooskies never took over, as Hesseltine knew they wouldn't, I'm sure, but he had gotten over a very good point. Best, Don Bauder
By dbauder 8:36 a.m., Nov 8, 2009 > Report it
Ponzi makes MANY good points in #16 and #17, but he is too dark on his outlook for the future.
I think we will recover-and I do thik we will re build our manufacturing bases and the jobs such a base creates.
I hope we end this downturn by the end of 2010. Start the crawl out, and I hope the gov leads better in the next few years than it has in the last few.
By SurfPuppy619 9:25 a.m., Nov 8, 2009 > Report it
Response to post #26: I think we will come out of this one, although jobs and consumer spending will still be weak at the end of 2010, in my judgment. However, what bothers me most is that we are simply setting ourselves up for the next episode. We are trying to battle excessive liquidity with more excessive liquidity. Fighting overindebtedness with even more of the same. Best, Don Bauder
By dbauder 9:29 a.m., Nov 8, 2009 > Report it
re: #18: "Like the Senators under Caligula, their wives shall one day wear pearl necklaces as wide and thick as any adorning Barbara Bush."
You are all waxing delightfully poetic this morn. But whatever kind of pearl necklace can Fred be referencing now?! Fred, you dip in and out of a metaphor like the proverbial teabag. ;)
By SDaniels 10:52 a.m., Nov 8, 2009 > Report it
Response to post #28: Uh oh. Now that I know an alternative meaning of a teabag, I am afraid of any mention of it. Best, Don Bauder
By dbauder 4:32 p.m., Nov 8, 2009 > Report it
On Friday, November 6th, President Obama signed the most recent federal emergency unemployment compensation bill to pay an additional 20 weeks of UI benefits in high unemployment states. That means many people in California will collect up to 99 weeks of benefits. Has there ever been such a time this has happened before?
By Ponzi 7:52 p.m., Nov 9, 2009 > Report it
Regarding employment recovery, this article from the Futurist is thought provoking. It explains why jobs are not materializing.
http://www.allbusiness.com/marketing/market-research/201750-1.html
By Ponzi 1:02 p.m., Nov 14, 2009 > Report it
Response to post #77: Interesting indeed. I had never heard the term "off-peopled." Best, Don Bauder
By dbauder 5:01 p.m., Nov 14, 2009 > Report it