Ian Pike noon, Dec. 8
SD's Leading Indicators Inch Up, but Not Encouragingly
The leading indicators of the San Diego economy published by University of San Diego economist Alan Gin, rose slightly in July from June -- to 101.7 from 101.6. The indicators have now risen for five consecutive months, but the gain has not been impressive. The number was 100.7 in March. By contrast, July's 101.7 is down from 117.2 in July of last year and 136.8 in July of 2007. This July, the national economy, stock prices, and consumer confidence moved positively. But help wanted advertising, initial unemployment claims and building permits moved in an unfavorable direction. "Initial unemployment claims are at an all-time high in San Diego -- they are nearly four times what they were when the economy was doing well," says Gin. He says the data indicate the San Diego economy may stop falling, but the rebound will be weak, and the jobs that have been lost won't be recovered for a long time.