nokomisjeff

Comments by nokomisjeff

Economy for 2013: San Diego worse than state, nation?

But I still smell a rally in Japan.....when, I don;t know, but one is coming sooner rather than later. And it's obvious to anyone with an IQ over 50 why the yen has been strong, and that needs no further comment.
— January 1, 2013 2:01 p.m.

Economy for 2013: San Diego worse than state, nation?

And now Krugman and Bernanke, and Greenspan(the fake PhD http://elainemeinelsupkis.typepad.com/money_mat...) keep calling for a new bubble. But then again Don, Bubbles, like bear markets only exist in hindsight. Charles Mackay wrote about bubbles and other mass delusions 160 years ago and it's still germane today. Here's a copy of Mackay's book if anyone is interested. http://www.gutenberg.org/files/24518/24518-h/24...
— January 1, 2013 1:58 p.m.

Economy for 2013: San Diego worse than state, nation?

I've thought that the Japanese market has been poised for a huge rally for over a year. I can smell it, but now (for me) is not the time to pull the trigger. Incidentally, there are some really nice carry trades in the Japanese money/bond markets. The only extra risk is the fx risk and one can design strategies on minimizing that risk......although anytime you minimize risk by hedging, it's similar to taking out an insurance policy, and insurance costs money.
— December 31, 2012 6:31 a.m.

Economy for 2013: San Diego worse than state, nation?

Of course they are, why wouldn't they be? Anytime one can identify a profit opportunity, make money creatively, using one's wits and courage, one should be applauded. Just remember, real estate flippers don't always make money flipping property. I knew people in 07-08 that ended up owning 65-100 houses each that they bought at the top. They were stuck with big ARM's and were completely ruined. One could ask, was Ben Graham or the Oracle of Omaha sagacious because they bought good undervalued stocks cheap and sold them when they became dear? If there was such a thing as easy money, everyone would jump on the bandwagon, and the margins(and edge) would disappear overnight.
— December 31, 2012 6:26 a.m.

Economy for 2013: San Diego worse than state, nation?

Well, as Milton Friedman said about times like this, the only thing you can do is participate in "High Living." I think I sent you that St. Louis Fed working paper where it stated that it is their intent to slowly, orderly devalue the dollar 33% within the next decade. I suspect that the market might beat them to it when the currency specs get tired of the dollar. But right now, where are they going to put it, the euro? Yen? Those two currencies are the only ones with enough liquidity that a 100 million dollar trade won't budge the currency. Try buying 100 million in Canadian Dollars and you might move the market three quarters of a cent.
— December 28, 2012 1:21 p.m.

Economy for 2013: San Diego worse than state, nation?

The housing market is a real market. Part of the result of a competitive market is to transfer positions from weak hands to strong hands. Sagacious investors with strong hands are buying up real estate on the cheap. This proves the system works and is a good thing. If you think something is too cheap, don't you buy it? Do you pay premium prices for everything hoping for the "Greater Fool Theory" to kick in? I like paying pennies on the dollar myself. .
— December 28, 2012 1:14 p.m.

Economy for 2013: San Diego worse than state, nation?

You really need to read Henry Clews who was a player during those times who's entire thesis would really weaken your contention. The general public got a better deal from a rigged roulette wheel than what they got from Wall Street.back in the robber baron age. And Wall Street, the primary dealers, and the Fed are keeping our government on life support right now. It;s the governments policies that have made this recession particularly nasty, Furthermore, Wall Street is not a zero sum game. Ostensibly, futures are supposed to be a zero sum game but they are not as commissions and taxes make that impossible.
— December 28, 2012 1:09 p.m.

Economy for 2013: San Diego worse than state, nation?

Overnight right now between banks is 19-20bps with a target of 25 bps. And you the private citizen speculator are not borrowing it from the Fed, and are paying 39 bps for as much as you can carry from your clearing house. Funny thing is that the clearing houses are just shoveling out the cash, begging the players to take it, at least on the trading end of things. Maybe it's the tail wagging the dog, I don't know, but this is how the cheap money is playing out. They are desperate for you to own that 10 year note. Is this a game of musical chairs, I don't know? The Fed is sending out signals via the yield curve that they are actively discouraging thrift, and that's a fact.
— December 28, 2012 10:26 a.m.

Economy for 2013: San Diego worse than state, nation?

It will last as long as the Fed creates fiat money and purchases the treasuries. What do they care? And anyways, even though this market is rigged, it is still a real market with liquidity and a firm, narrow bid/ask. It's easy to enter either side of a position and put on size. What I think disturbs you is that you are more concerned with prices then the actual mechanics of whether there is a market or not. Just because one is unhappy with the price one's asset is going for doesn't mean that there is not an active market trading in said asset. I know a lot of soybean speculators who are very unhappy with the price because they paid $17 for their beans which are now worth $14. Yet if they looked at the big picture, beans were $6.00 a few years ago. Those same guys are saying that this is not a real market.
— December 28, 2012 10:20 a.m.

Economy for 2013: San Diego worse than state, nation?

Morgan was an expert at using other people's money and put together US Steel, didn't own it outright.. Notice how he never left a public legacy like Rockefeller or Carnegie et al. His legacies were the succeeding companies upon his death That's because he was influence rich and capital poor, the quintessential deal maker. I have another source showing that JP Morgan's estate was probated at 68.3 million, which is more accurate than the one I quoted. Remember, he was merely a partner in the bank that bore the Morgan name. When he died in 1913, the gross domestic product was 39 billion so 68 million was a chunk of change.
— December 28, 2012 10:13 a.m.