“Two? More than two?” Araiza questions his accuser after a judge ruled that her sexual history in the year prior to the alleged incident was relevant. The judge reasoned that the woman’s “credibility will be a central issue in this case,” which makes her statements about her number of sexual partners worth interrogating. But it seems the numbers used by the NFL in assessing accused or convicted players are much larger, and much more complicated.

Two weeks ago, former SDSU star punter Matt Araiza filed a defamation suit against a woman who had accused him of participating in her gang rape at a house party near the university in 2021. The suit was announced after the woman announced her own suit against Araiza and the other alleged rapists, and also after the District Attorney’s office announced that it would not be filing criminal charges in the case. Part of Araiza’s claim against the woman stemmed from his being cut from the Buffalo Bills soon after her accusation became public, and one interesting result of the suit has been the court-ordered release of the Bills’ internal communications regarding their decision.

“It turns out our friends at the National Football League are just as nerdy as the nerds they used to shove into gym lockers,” says UCSD Professor of Smarts Brian Matter. “Years ago, in response to the rapidly rising number of professional football players accused and/or convicted of crimes, the League developed a complex and highly effective algorithmic formula for determining appropriate League response. Variables included the relative skill of the player’s position, the value of the player’s merch sales/endorsement deals, the size of the player’s contract, his team’s playoff prospects for the season, the number of non-crime-related news stories highlighting the player, and of course, the severity of the offense. Tyreek Hill in 2020? Star receiver for a perennial playoff contender, huge $54 million contract, 50 positive stories for every one chronicling various allegations against him, including battery and child abuse. No brainer. Also a no-brainer: cutting a newly signed punter who hasn’t even played a game yet and who has been accused of rape. The numbers don’t lie, even if the girl did. Worst of all: it’s the Bills. Everybody knows they’re never going to the Super Bowl.”