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The Mexican peso began moving up sharply in Asian markets as Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump debated last night, and the rally continued throughout the scrum. "The dollar declined from 20.1 to 19.58 so the peso was up 2.58 percent," says Carlsbad's Jim Welsh, who writes the publication Macro Tides.

Other publications that follow currencies in commodities markets began reporting on the rise of the peso early in the debate, suggesting it was a good omen for Clinton.

However, as Welsh points out, "Basically, the dollar has risen from 12 in May of 2013 to just above 20 to the peso. So the peso declined 66 percent" in that period. Betting on the dollar rising was an enormously profitable trade "as Trump made comments about building a wall, renegotiating trade treaties with Mexico." A huge short position (betting against the peso) piled up, so as last night's debate seemed to go Clinton's way, the shorts rushed to cover (buy pesos to take the sting out of more of a peso up-move against the dollar.)

Welsh thinks the dollar could decline to 19 against the peso before there this peso rally at least temporarily peters out.

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Comments

ImJustABill Sept. 28, 2016 @ 7:08 a.m.

Interesting data, Don. The Peso exchange rate and futures certainly indicate a highly likelihood of Hillary victory after the debate compared to before the debate.

There are some websites which have an algorithm to add up betting odds (and perhaps a few other metrics) to come up with odds of each candidate winning.

Maxim and Lott's website showed Trump's odds of winning dropping from about 34% to 30% pre/post debate

https://electionbettingodds.com/

Nate Silver's website shows Trump's chances not changing much - about 44% before and after the debate.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

Who's right? If I knew that I'd be a wealthy man from betting on elections, but sadly that's not the case.

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Don Bauder Sept. 28, 2016 @ 7:49 a.m.

ImJustABill: Amazing. Realistically, Trump got slaughtered in the debate. Intellectually, he was empty and disingenuous. He was babylike in his demeanor. But his followers stuck by him. Actually, this is frightening for our country. Best, Don Bauder

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AlexClarke Sept. 28, 2016 @ 8:36 a.m.

Nothing will change the minds of those who plan on voting for Trump or against Hillary. Same with Hillary voters for/against. Traditionally Democrats will vote and have crossed party lines to do so (think Reagan). Republicans not so much. When they are unhappy with the Republican nominee they will either stay home or vote for a third party candidate (Think Perot). We, the voting citizens of the United States, have before us the worst two presidential candidates in recent history. We all have a choice to vote or not. Either which way it falls it is my bet that the "winning" candidate will be a one term president. If Trump wins the disaster that will follow will destroy the Republican party. If Hillary wins it will insure a Republican sweep of the Presidency, House and Senate at the end of the first Trump four. The real losers in this whole debacle it the American public. I wish ( I know, I know) we had a real third party so that no single party would control and then the useless Congress would have to work together to accomplish anything. Oh well . . . . . .

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Ponzi Sept. 28, 2016 @ 11:51 a.m.

I think we do have a third party; it's Trump. Somehow he managed to hijack the Republican party by bullying his way through the debates.

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Don Bauder Sept. 28, 2016 @ 2:27 p.m.

AlexClarke: So-called experts agree that Trump lovers will not desert him no matter what he says or does. I understand he has stated that his people will stick with him even if they see him committing a murder in the middle of Manhattan during rush hour. This is scary but it may be true. It partly reflects the huge number of rednecks in the U.S.

If this is true, I believe it reflects the huge number of whites, particularly white men, who are convinced that attempts to help African-Americans and Latinos, as well as programs to give equality to women, have cheated the white males. Frightening, but, I fear, very possibly true. Best, Don Bauder

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Don Bauder Sept. 29, 2016 @ 7:18 a.m.

AlexClarke: Never mind the Republican Party. A Trump victory might destroy everything. Best, Don Bauder

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Ponzi Sept. 28, 2016 @ 11:52 a.m.

When people do not vote for either candidate, someone else is voting for them. Sometimes you just have to accept that the devil you know may be better than the devil you don't know.

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Don Bauder Sept. 28, 2016 @ 2:39 p.m.

Ponzi: I watched the debate last night thinking Trump is an emotionally unstable dolt and Clinton a slick, dishonest but intelligent wonk. After the debate, I realized I had overrated Trump; he is worse. But I realized I had underrated Clinton. She not only has deep knowledge of government (particularly international affairs), and she also handles herself with aplomb. Best, Don Bauder

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SportsFan0000 Sept. 29, 2016 @ 12:33 a.m.

Don, Harvard study shows that the Media deliberately tore down Clinton and built up Trump. True Dat. https://www.good.is/articles/hillary-clinton-negative-press?utm_source=121&utm_medium=FB&utm_campaign=swp Huff Post story underscores that US is Sexist and has held Hillary to a much higher standard than any other candidate. during the 2016 election cycle..True Dat. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/larry-womack/stop-pretending-you-dont-_b_12191766.html? Internet piece that I read states that if Hillary had done all the things her detractors had said that she had done and they had spent 30 years and hundreds of millions of dollars trying to "get her", and that they still couldn't find anything on her, then either she is the smartest crook in the history of the world OR maybe she is not the one who is crooked...Special Interests trying to "get Hillary" might be the real corrupt ones because they do not want someone as smart as her in charge who will not put up with their BS.

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Don Bauder Sept. 29, 2016 @ 7:23 a.m.

SportsFan0000: The media built up Trump because it was old-fashioned "Man bites dog" story. Now the media seem to realize what they have done, and the disaster they could cause. Best, Don Bauder

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ImJustABill Sept. 29, 2016 @ 9:25 a.m.

Don't write off the issues. Trump has taken strong positions against illegal immigration and globalization. Clinton is in favor of illegal immigration and strongly in favor of globalization. I think that many working class people feel that illegal immigration and globalization hurt their chances at getting decent jobs. I tend to agree with Trump's positions on these particular issues - I don't think we should continue to allow unabated illegal immigration and I don't think our trade agreements and increased globalization have been good for the American working class.

I think the media (and frankly some of the above posts) have vastly underestimated Trump's chances because the media focus on Trump's (admittedly) outrageous circus act and ignore that there are real issues addressed by Trump that have been ignored by most major candidates for POTUS.

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AlexClarke Sept. 29, 2016 @ 5:24 p.m.

It is not just illegal immigration but immigration in general. We have enough of our own home grown uneducated uninspired freeloaders. However the only thing I can think of that would be worse than Hillary as president is Trump as president.

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