The Mexican peso began moving up sharply in Asian markets as Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump debated last night, and the rally continued throughout the scrum. "The dollar declined from 20.1 to 19.58 so the peso was up 2.58 percent," says Carlsbad's Jim Welsh, who writes the publication Macro Tides.
Other publications that follow currencies in commodities markets began reporting on the rise of the peso early in the debate, suggesting it was a good omen for Clinton.
However, as Welsh points out, "Basically, the dollar has risen from 12 in May of 2013 to just above 20 to the peso. So the peso declined 66 percent" in that period. Betting on the dollar rising was an enormously profitable trade "as Trump made comments about building a wall, renegotiating trade treaties with Mexico." A huge short position (betting against the peso) piled up, so as last night's debate seemed to go Clinton's way, the shorts rushed to cover (buy pesos to take the sting out of more of a peso up-move against the dollar.)
Welsh thinks the dollar could decline to 19 against the peso before there this peso rally at least temporarily peters out.