Downtown’s posh Sè Hotel sold out of bankruptcy for a third of its original cost
  • Downtown’s posh Sè Hotel sold out of bankruptcy for a third of its original cost
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We may not suffer an economic double dip, but we’re in for double trouble, and it could last several more years. Both in the nation and San Diego, recent signs of weakness portend more years of high unemployment, receding home values, anemic construction, soft consumer spending, slow manufacturing, pain from excessive debt, and only moderately improving tourism.

San Diego enjoys one advantage: growing employment in tech, particularly biotech. On the other hand, one-fifth of the San Diego economy is tied to the military (both weaponry and payroll), and there is talk of cutbacks. Remember the early 1990s? The nation got a peace dividend; San Diego got a piece of poop in the kisser as aerospace companies closed down and engineers were laid off en masse.

There are a number of long-standing problems that have come together to bring the American economy down. Beginning in the 1980s, consumers, governments, and financial institutions piled up far too much debt. Wall Street went on a speculative binge. Then came the 2007–early 2009 crash. Washington came to the rescue of the financial institutions, handing them trillions of near-zero interest rate dollars for a record length of time.

That caused a double whammy. The stock and bond markets thrived on the cheap money. But the value of the dollar plummeted as the Federal Reserve, in effect, kept printing more bucks. Commodities, which are denominated in dollars, soared in price. So American families were hit with higher food and fuel prices. The big rise of financial asset prices boosted the wealth and incomes of the richest 10 percent, who control 80 percent of stock and bond wealth, but the lower 90 percent suffered from inflation and sagging incomes.

Thus we suffered a two-tier recovery. The wealthiest 10 percent were gleeful; the rest were glum as the gap between the rich and the rest widened. Not surprisingly, consumer confidence polls show Americans’ mood stumbling along at 25 to 30 percent below the normal level. And consumer spending is 70 percent of the economy.

Economically, San Diego has been doing somewhat more poorly than the nation as a whole. The unemployment rate in the county has generally been above 10 percent while the nation’s has been a notch below double digits, although recent local joblessness has slipped a bit below double digits. American housing values are down about 30 percent from their 2006 peak. San Diego is down 38 percent from its 2005 peak to a median $321,000, which is still high by comparison with other metro areas. The Pacific region consumer mood surveys are slightly below the nation’s, according to San Diego Workforce Partnership.

San Diego tourism is picking up, but it trails other major California metro areas. For the year to date, the local hotel occupancy rate is 65.9 percent, up from 63.3 for the same period last year. But San Francisco’s rate this year is 71.6 percent, Orange County’s is 68.3, and Los Angeles’s 69.8, according to Smith Travel Research. “It is important to remember in comparing cities that Los Angeles, San Francisco, and [Orange County] are international destinations,” says La Jolla tourism guru Jerry Morrison. The weak dollar is helping those markets more than it helps San Diego. Many downtown hotels remain underwater. The posh Sè San Diego was recently sold out of bankruptcy for one-third of its original cost.

Through the years, San Diego household income has grown at 2 percent a year. In both 2009 and 2010, it fell by 2 percent. “[Yearly] incomes could drop further — not 2 percent but maybe 1 percent,” says Marney Cox, chief economist of San Diego Association of Governments. Employment will only go up half of 1 percent this year, and housing prices have another 5 to 10 percent to fall, he feels. “It will take another five years to get the jobs back that we lost in the recession.”

San Diego retail sales were up 8 percent from July of last year through March of this year, but that was greatly as a result of higher gas prices, says Cox. “People are not consuming; the savings rate remains high,” he says. “There is way too much commercial space. We have to figure out what to do with the excess retail space. Strip malls are going to have way too much space.”

Kelly Cunningham, economist for the National University System Institute for Policy Research, notes that San Diego County retail sales peaked at $47.8 billion in 2006, and the estimate for 2010 is $40.7 billion. He thinks it will be 2021 before local retail sales get back to their 2006 levels, adjusted for inflation. “It’s astonishing,” says Cunningham. “We used to have population growth of 50,000 a year. Now it’s 30,000, or less than 1 percent, annually.” Babies keep getting born, and births outnumber deaths. “But for the last several years we have had an exodus of residents.”

In theory, shoppers are supposed to pay tax on internet sales, but that is not a reliable expectation. Beset by reluctant consumers who check the internet before they buy anything in a store, communities have to raise their sales taxes to survive. The San Diego rate is 8.75 percent. La Mesa’s sales tax is 9.5 percent, and National City and El Cajon are at 9.75, says Cunningham. (Those aren’t tops in the state. South Gate, in the Los Angeles area, has a whopping 10.75 percent rate.) “High taxes are a disincentive to spend,” depressing sales tax receipts, says Cunningham — one of several reasons, along with excessive pension commitments, why communities continue to cut public sector employment.

San Diego has a potential problem: the military, directly and indirectly, accounts for 19.9 percent, or $33.5 billion, of the county’s total yearly economic output. This figure includes such things as military pensions. The Pentagon prefers to slice payroll, such as medical benefits, rather than cut back on weaponry. “The military is telling us it is going to shift its focus to the West Coast, but if there is a cutback we would see a pretty big setback in our economy such as what we saw in the early 1990s,” says Cunningham.

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Comments

Twister June 15, 2011 @ 6:20 p.m.

Why would Cunningham "expect a bigger rebound?

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Don Bauder June 15, 2011 @ 9:46 p.m.

Cunningham had begun the year predicting improvement that hasn't materialized. But he still thinks it may, although he is not looking for much. Best, Don Bauder

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Psycholizard June 16, 2011 @ 2:19 p.m.

My nightly walks through the PB party zone suggest that the tourist and hospitality business is doing well, partly due to the return of the fleet recently, but also because of San Diego's new status as a international destination for young people.

Long term, military cutbacks may slow our growth, but in the meantime, the return of our military from our overseas misadventures should help our local economy.

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Don Bauder June 16, 2011 @ 2:49 p.m.

I agree that our military misadventures have been abysmal. We still have troops in Iraq, Afghanistan is a quagmire and we have no reason for being there, we keep getting into other conflagrations such as in Libya and Yemen, and we have bases all over the world that should be closed. I don't see signs that we are cutting back significantly. Best, Don Bauder

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clockerbob June 17, 2011 @ 8:41 a.m.

San Diego city council is following the pre-bankruptcy steps taken by the United States Post office.

Sunday, post office realizes that they will default on pension obligations/payment. Tuesday give Postal workers a 3.5% raise Wednesday give the workers a no work stoppage guarantee Thursday default on pension payment-declare bankruptcy Friday have taxpayers pay for raise-no work stoppage guaranty and amount defaulted on pension fund.

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Don Bauder June 17, 2011 @ 12:34 p.m.

I guess I should hurry and get some things in the mail if the post office is going to file for BK. Best, Don Bauder

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Twister June 18, 2011 @ 2:39 p.m.

I tried to post this day before yesterday:

I'm certain that Cunningham is more cunning than I am about "economic predictions" (why does oxymoron spring to mind?), but his most pessimistic outlook is brighter than the hole in the half-empty bowl that I see draining the world economy as the stovepipe of the rich overfloweth.

(Yeah, I know--so what's NEW?)

Well, "my" gas well is capped while the fracking gas wells in Colorado and elsewhere in the Intermountain West seep into water wells, not to mention the fracking compounds. It's expensive to drill and frack up the Rockies, but cheaper than paying the likes of me royalties.

The between-the-lines message here is that we has seen the enemy and he/she is our friendly gasbags. One of their TV ads brags "There's enough gas in this country to last 100 years." Lessee, that's three whole generations. Them great gradkids will have to have a pipe up their keesters connected to their scooters to come visit grandma.

And furthermore(!), we've had a peek at the future of oil, but we've grown tired of that, and we are eating up the corny idea that we can grow, grow, grow and borrow, borrow, borrow. Now LOOKY HERE--robbing Peter to pay Paul ain't the answer to our insatiable lust for more! And MORE, mah friends, is what economic predictions are dependent upon.

Back in the Great Depression, when there was a small fraction of the population of today (not to mention tomorrow, and tomorrow and tomorrow, the most significant factor in economic predictions) the rich followed the poor down the drain (but nowhere nearly so far--but y' know what, it "hurt" them more; they had farther to fall—the rest just die off or do themselves in—or go solo, like modern apple-peddlers). The rich think they don’t need grease monkeys and machinists any more; they can either outsource, import alien wage-slaves, or depress real wages enough to keep on jacking up their margins. But hey, as my Jewish uncle was fond of saying, “You don’t take PERCENTAGES to the bank; you take MONEY to the bank.”

If he was right, any investment that promises or averages more than, say six or seven percent, is fraudulent as well as usury. And unsustainable? What would Joe Stiglitz say?

Alan Greenspin? (Gosh, ain’t reality a whole lot funnier than the comics? I figger that Jon Stewart must have figured this out . . .)

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Don Bauder June 19, 2011 @ 9:37 a.m.

You are correct to focus on debt. Those of us who have been pessimistic (in my case, for decades) point to the horrible debt ratios: consumer debt to consumer income, federal government debt to income, state and local debt to tax receipts, bank debt to capital, etc. The collapse of '07 to '09 was caused not only by excessive Wall Street gambling, but also by excessive debt. Now we are trying to cure our debt burden with even more debt. Best, Don Bauder

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