“Vegas is down more than San Diego because it is more of a fly market,” says Rauch. San Diego still has a certain cushion because most tourists drive here and, in a downturn or energy crisis, tend to cancel longer trips and come to San Diego. This year, “We will weather the downturn, but it will still be a downturn.” San Diego will pick up a few Angelenos who were going to gamble in Vegas, but that will be a small piece of the pie. Overall, this year “is turning out to be uneven. We are headed off the peak toward the trough, which will be in 2009.” Next year is when the pain really hits.

San Diego will not gain from Las Vegas’s woes, agrees Sanders. “Las Vegas is a bellwether for the larger economy.” San Diego will hurt along with other convention/tourist destinations.

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Comments

Don Bauder July 17, 2008 @ 5:52 a.m.

Response to post #9: An interesting situation worth looking into. Best, Don Bauder

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JohnnyVegas July 16, 2008 @ 12:12 p.m.

Since there is high leverage in the building of so many of those Casino's it will be interesting to see if any go BK.

Steve Winn might be sweating a few bullets about now......

Las Vegas has not really had a downturn for over 20 years......in fact it has probably had more economic expansion than any major city in the US over the last 20-30 years.

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Fred Williams July 16, 2008 @ 1:32 p.m.

This underlines the folly of any economy depending too much on tourism...including San Diego.

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Don Bauder July 16, 2008 @ 3:07 p.m.

Response to post #1: For about 20 years, I have been predicting a downturn in Vegas and in gambling across the country. So far I have been wrong. It appears to be happening, but I don't know if it is a long term trend. When will people figure out that casinos and lotteries are scams? Yes, Vegas casinos are heavily leveraged, and there are some new ones going up. Yes, there could be some BKs. Best, Don Bauder

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Don Bauder July 16, 2008 @ 3:10 p.m.

Response to post #2: Las Vegas depends on tourism and real estate. Both are hurting. San Diego's tech, about ten percent of employment, at least gives it more balance. Best, Don Bauder

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JohnnyVegas July 16, 2008 @ 5:25 p.m.

I know there is literally tons of new building being foreclosed on in Las Vegas, especially the high end condos built on or near the strip.

Miami, Las Vegas and San Diego were at the top of the real estate bubble, so now that the bubble has popped we see these areas really getting hammered, and hammered hard.

It will be interesting to see what happens if a serious downturn hits Las Vegas. I was always surprised that Las Vegas could have such a long economic expansion.

As for gambling-it is nothing but problems.

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Burwell July 16, 2008 @ 8:33 p.m.

Another outstanding article. The Reader needs to have Don's articles and blogs indexed in the news section at Yahoo.com to increase his influence and reach on the internet. Most people now obtain their news from Yahoo.com. They use the search function at Yahoo news to locate articles of interest and ignore the rest. There's a tremendous demand on the internet for quality business content.

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Don Bauder July 16, 2008 @ 9:03 p.m.

Response to post #5: Las Vegas and Miami are in the most trouble with condos. San Diego and LA are close behind. Best, Don Bauder

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Don Bauder July 16, 2008 @ 9:07 p.m.

Response to post #6: I will pass on the suggestion. Thank you. Best, Don Bauder

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kneadstono July 17, 2008 @ 3:15 a.m.

Please pardon my digression,but I am curious if you have ever looked at MTDB and John Scott.I find it interesting that they can give 10 taxi medallions,currently selling for $130,000 apiece,to an Amir Aghassi,president of the board of the NONPROFIT co. Orange Cab.Of course technically these cannot be bought or sold but they often are.This brought Mr.Aghassis' total to 20, apparently out of the pure goodness of Mr.Scott and the MTDB.Sort of makes me wonder what they got in return.

querulously yours,kneadstono

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seahorse July 17, 2008 @ 8:57 p.m.

When will people figure out that casinos and lotteries are scams? You're a financial guy so you and I look at expected returns. A lot of people see their losses in Vegas as the cost of entertainment. The lotteyr is a different story. The lottery can't be judged quantitatively alone. Some people think that their only chance at wealth is the lottery.

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Don Bauder July 18, 2008 @ 6:59 a.m.

Response to post #12: Government-run lotteries are particularly reprehensible, because the people who fall for the scam are the ones who financially have no business gambling. But as you say, they think it is their only ticket to affluence. Best, Don Bauder

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