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San Diego is among a group of metro areas whose home values will likely hit bottom late this year, according to Zillow. Others are Dallas, Denver, Miami, New York, Pittsburgh, San Francisco, and Tampa, says the housing research firm. San Diego home values dropped 0.4% in last year's fourth quarter and dropped 5.2% for the year 2011. They are now down 36.9% since hitting a peak during the bubble.

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Comments

Visduh Feb. 9, 2012 @ 9:48 a.m.

In light of everything that has happened since the housing bubble burst, it seems improbable that prices are down "only" 37%. During that run-up they hit levels that were so out-of-reach for most buyers that I'd have expected a 50% drop. For the sake of everyone, except perhaps the first-time buyer, I hope they do stabilize. Further declines will just prolong the agony. With these mortgage interest rates now at or even below 4%, the homes are affordable for many buyers who just could not have handled them if rates were double the current level. That does make a huge difference.

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Don Bauder Feb. 9, 2012 @ 1:39 p.m.

When all is said and done, I don't think the decline will be 50%. However, you never know what is lurking. Best, Don Bauder

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SurfPuppy619 Feb. 9, 2012 @ 11:19 a.m.

We are still 3-5 years form the bottom.

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Don Bauder Feb. 9, 2012 @ 1:40 p.m.

That's possible, too. Best, Don Bauder

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Twister Feb. 10, 2012 @ 4:49 p.m.

Sorry to be a broken record, but I'd still like to see an analysis of where home values would be had there been no bubble. How is the percentage down from the peak more relevant that that figure, whatever it is?

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Don Bauder Feb. 10, 2012 @ 4:57 p.m.

I'm sure a graph on SD home values is available. From it you could figure the number you seek. What you would want is a graph showing San Diego County home values rising X% yearly from about 1940, say, forward. Then in the 2000s there would be a sharp spike upward. Start where the spike begins and extend the line out at the 1940-2000 yearly rate, instead of the much sharper rate of the 2002-late 2005 or 2006 period. The end of that line would be the median or average value if the bubble had not ballooned values. Best, Don Bauder

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Twister Feb. 10, 2012 @ 10 p.m.

That's why I was asking; I don't know where the graph is.

BUT my main question remains, "How is the percentage down from the peak more relevant that that figure, whatever it is?"

That is, is the 37% more in the "gee-whiz" department? If so, why is it used by journalists rather than a more useful/truthful/meaningful number? Isn't the whole point to polish how we think about the point/issue?

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Don Bauder Feb. 10, 2012 @ 11:06 p.m.

There must be charts of median San Diego home prices over a couple of decades. If you figure that values were rising X% a year over those decades, just extend the chart out rising at X%, and see how much lower the line is than the line that contains the blip beginning in the early 2000s. I think you may be trying to find out if, now that values are down 35-40% (depending on which economist you read), are we back where we would have been if the growth had simply gone ahead at the earlier rates? Could well be. Best, Don Bauder

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