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A poll conducted by SurveyUSA shows Republican Carl DeMaio and Democrat Bob Filner in a virtual tie on top of the list of hopefuls in San Diego’s next mayoral election.

Filner, who has had a notably small campaign presence aside from several debate appearances, seems to benefit from a solidified Democratic vote in the officially non-partisan campaign, though he is still only polling at 24% among a sample of 511 likely voters. Republicans, meanwhile, are split between DeMaio (25%), Bonnie Dumanis (14%), and Nathan Fletcher (13%). 11% of committed voters are aligned with other candidates, while 13% remain uncommitted.

If these figures hold through the June primaries, it appears it will be Filner and DeMaio facing off to fill the seat being vacated by the termed-out Jerry Sanders in the fall.

A plea for donations disseminated yesterday by Mike Turk at DeMaio’s campaign says that the other Republican candidaties “have no traction to win a place in the runoff,” and that “they can engage in nasty, negative campaigning to create a messier primary,” an apparent reference to the fact that a fractured Republican vote would only lend strength to Filner. Indeed, Turk says DeMaio claims “a whopping 38% of Republicans” in current polling. A U-T San Diego article quoted by Turk puts DeMaio’s advantage at 35%, however.

DeMaio does demonstrates a significant advantage among coveted independent voters, though. 29% report favoring him over Fletcher (16%), Filner (14%), or Dumanis (14%), and these independents may ultimately determine the outcome of the race.

Should no candidate receive a majority vote in the June 5 primary, the top two vote recipients will face off this November. Given the support that’s spread among four viable contenders, it appears likely that the field will indeed be narrowed to two for an extended campaign.

Pictured: Bob Filner, Carl DeMaio

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Comments

SurfPuppy619 Feb. 8, 2012 @ 9:39 a.m.

I do not think Filner can win. Dems do not do well in the Mayors race-ask Navarro and Frye-although Frye did win the race but was TKO'd.

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monaghan Feb. 8, 2012 @ 3:56 p.m.

Dems do FINE in mayoral races when they have a straight shot and a strong candidate, as in this rare opportunity for positive change with Bob Filner.

There is no comparison between mayoral candidates Navarro -- who's that? -- and the valiant Donna Frye and Congressman Bob Filner. Filner is the most qualified candidate to run for this office in 40 years. The City needs his experience and his vision for the future.

Think about it: Filner's a former SDSU professor of History; a School Board trustee who brought us the best Superintendent we've ever had; a member of City Council and then a long-serving member of Congress representing a diverse area of South Bay extending into Imperial County. Idealistic, energetic and tough.

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SurfPuppy619 Feb. 8, 2012 @ 6:25 p.m.

3.Dems do FINE in mayoral races when they have a straight shot and a strong candidate, as in this rare opportunity for positive change with Bob Filner.

There is no comparison between mayoral candidates Navarro == Are you for real?? Navarro was a well known and popular Dem who was 1% point away from being Mayor. Navarro was light years ahead of Filner. Filner will never come close to becoming Mayor. Navarro was as close as you can get and not become Mayor.

BTW-if you're referring to Bersin then you just lost ALL credibility here.

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monaghan Feb. 8, 2012 @ 7 p.m.

I am for real, but you are kinda rude. Do you even remember Navarro's first name, what his background was and what he does for a living? I do: I thought he was bright and pretty, but a lightweight in the arena of urban politics.

I am referring here to Superintendent Tom Payzant who was an educator recruited from Oklahoma, a person who fostered excellent relations with every segment of the San Diego community and who had a cordial productive working relationship with the teachers' union. (Those were the days!) When he finally left San Diego, it was for a brief stint in D.C. where he served as an under secretary of education and then went to teach at Harvard's Graduate School of Education where he may still be, if he hasn't retired by now.

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Visduh Feb. 9, 2012 @ 3:37 p.m.

I remember that it was Peter. He's now a professor at UC Irvine, or was recently.

As to Payzant, you have a better opinion of him than I do. In hindsight, he looks better all the time, in light of some of those who succeeded him, such as Bertha Pendleton and Bersin.

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