David Dodd 2:53 a.m., May 21
DeMaio, Filner Are Likely Runoff Candidates in Mayoral Race
A poll conducted by SurveyUSA shows Republican Carl DeMaio and Democrat Bob Filner in a virtual tie on top of the list of hopefuls in San Diego’s next mayoral election.
Filner, who has had a notably small campaign presence aside from several debate appearances, seems to benefit from a solidified Democratic vote in the officially non-partisan campaign, though he is still only polling at 24% among a sample of 511 likely voters. Republicans, meanwhile, are split between DeMaio (25%), Bonnie Dumanis (14%), and Nathan Fletcher (13%). 11% of committed voters are aligned with other candidates, while 13% remain uncommitted.
If these figures hold through the June primaries, it appears it will be Filner and DeMaio facing off to fill the seat being vacated by the termed-out Jerry Sanders in the fall.
A plea for donations disseminated yesterday by Mike Turk at DeMaio’s campaign says that the other Republican candidaties “have no traction to win a place in the runoff,” and that “they can engage in nasty, negative campaigning to create a messier primary,” an apparent reference to the fact that a fractured Republican vote would only lend strength to Filner. Indeed, Turk says DeMaio claims “a whopping 38% of Republicans” in current polling. A U-T San Diego article quoted by Turk puts DeMaio’s advantage at 35%, however.
DeMaio does demonstrates a significant advantage among coveted independent voters, though. 29% report favoring him over Fletcher (16%), Filner (14%), or Dumanis (14%), and these independents may ultimately determine the outcome of the race.
Should no candidate receive a majority vote in the June 5 primary, the top two vote recipients will face off this November. Given the support that’s spread among four viable contenders, it appears likely that the field will indeed be narrowed to two for an extended campaign.
Pictured: Bob Filner, Carl DeMaio