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The lead indicators of the San Diego economy, compiled by economist Alan Gin of the University of San Diego, rose to 109.9 in July, up from 109.6 in June. The indicators have now moved up steadily since reaching 100.7 in March of 2009. In July, building permits, consider confidence, help wanted advertising and the national economy moved in a positive direction. Initial unemployment claims and stock prices moved in a negative direction.

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Comments

SurfPuppy619 Sept. 1, 2010 @ 7:57 a.m.

Retail sales are still falling, and construction permits are also at their lowest levels since 1945.

I do not think a recovery will happen until contruction turns the corner, and we are years away from that, IMO.

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Founder Sept. 1, 2010 @ 8:14 a.m.

Reply #1 I wonder if these numbers are also being "supported" by the huge amount of Military construction now going on as mentioned in an earlier blog?

If so, then Gin's numbers are themselves Gin'd Upward...

(No pun intended)

  • I agree, we are MANY years away form anything like SD was just a few years ago,

UNLESS

the Gov't. eases Home Mortgage Credit and reinstated the $500,000 tax deductions for folks owning and living in their house 2 in the last 5 years; as that would restart a huge home buying/fixing up trend, that would pump much need money and many local jobs into SD.

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Don Bauder Sept. 1, 2010 @ 3:11 p.m.

Response to post #1: In 2008, the real estate industry and construction together were almost one-fourth of the San Diego economy. If it hadn't been for the military's presence, San Diego would really gone down the sewer, as another post indicates. Best, Don Bauder

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Don Bauder Sept. 1, 2010 @ 3:17 p.m.

Response to post #2: The military's presence has definitely propped up the San Diego economy, as Kelly Cunningham's study demonstrably shows. Government stimulation of residential real estate (re-stimulation, actually) would help. My, but doesn't this conservative town, whose leaders denounce the federal government's role in the economy, rely on federal government aid? Any hypocrisy there? Best, Don Bauder

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Visduh Sept. 3, 2010 @ 11:01 a.m.

Hypocrisy? Sure. But that is nothing compared to the southern pols of the 1950's and 1960's who proclaimed that the federal government had no business interfering in states' rights. (That involved such things as civil rights, voting rights and access to state-supported education.) Those congressmen and senators, along with the governors, made the feds to be allies of Satan. Yet who was getting the dams, military installations with their fat payrolls, waterways, poverty programs, and a host of other pork-barrel spending by the feds? THE SOUTH! The two-faced approach of San Diego is mild compared to that.

This points up the overreliance of San Diego upon the military, its bases, and especially the payrolls. (I should say the Department of the Navy, because any vestiges of Army or Air Force presence in SD are long gone, and mostly forgotten.)

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Don Bauder Sept. 3, 2010 @ 1:55 p.m.

Response to post #5: I remember reading about some county in Texas that wanted to secede from the union but got more than 60 percent of its gross regional product from the federal government. The Montana Freemen didn't believe in government, but lived off government subsidies. The list goes on and on. The national Chamber of Commerce inveighs against government interference in the marketplace, but then is in favor of every corporate welfare project that comes along. Best, Don Bauder

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