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The lead indicators of the San Diego economy, published by economist Alan Gin of the University of San Diego, edged up to 107.8 in February from 107.7 in January. They had hit 109.9 in November of 2009. Building permits, initial unemployment claims, help wanted advertising and the national economy moved in a favorable direction. Stock prices and consumer confidence were negative.

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Comments

SurfPuppy619 March 26, 2010 @ 11:45 a.m.

UE is still at 12.5%, housing is at best flat, and the biggest indicator of recovery-job growth- is still non existant.

We will be in the toilet at least one more year-maybe 2 or 3.

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Don Bauder March 26, 2010 @ 2:12 p.m.

Response to post #1: The consumer (including housing) is 75% of the economy. I can see this sector being weak for several years. Best, Don Bauder

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MondoGrapes March 27, 2010 @ 5:56 a.m.

I hate to be the pessimist as I am really not a negative person, but as Don has noted many times before, all these numbers indicate are the effects of the tsunami of liquidity generated by the Fed. I still think the worst is yet to come.

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Don Bauder March 27, 2010 @ 7:35 a.m.

Response to post #3: Some very intelligent economists look for a double-dip, or another recession. That would be a W shaped recovery: down, up, down again, up again. I don't really see a double dip, but see weakness worldwide for several years. Things seem to have bounced back in the U.S. on the huge wave of liquidity, but take away the government programs such as cash for clunkers, the zero interest rates to banks, and the artificially low mortgage rates, and what do you have? Not much. The so-called recovery today is mostly artificially induced. Best, Don Bauder

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SurfPuppy619 March 27, 2010 @ 8:28 a.m.

Doubel dip recession, very possible.

I know for a FACT we will have a double dip real estate bust.

Wait until all the shadow REO's hit the fan. People today who have been paying for the last 2 years on an upside down mortgage are going to start walking away-especially if they are older and they know the value will NOT recover within their life spans.

The ones who are not making payments-well, they will obviously go into foreclosure.

People who have held off selling in order for the market to "return" will soon see there is not going to be any RE recovery within the next 5 years, then they too are going to toss in the towel.

No jobs, no money. No money, no housing purchases/transactions. No housing pourchases/transactions, prices remail gflat-or worse they fall.

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Don Bauder March 27, 2010 @ 12:45 p.m.

Response to post #5: Weakness in residential and commercial real estate -- with even more weakness looming -- is one factor that those foreseeing a double-dip point to. Best, Don Bauder

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chillblaine March 29, 2010 @ 8:04 p.m.

Nobody in this administration has ever had to run a business or make payroll. Companies like AT&T have to announce writedowns because of the health care 'reform' bill. Said bill improved access somewhat, but does nothing to contain costs. All these costs have to be financed which are a drag on the economy.

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Don Bauder March 29, 2010 @ 10:39 p.m.

Response to post #7: Summers ran Harvard, which is close to a business. He didn't last long. Best, Don Bauder

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Neal Obermeyer April 1, 2010 @ 6:11 p.m.

Re: #7

AT&T's complaints have nothing to do with cost controls in the bill. Medicare Part D, passed during the Bush administration, gave companies tax-free 28% subsidies in order to provide prescription drug benefits for their employees, but it also allowed companies to deduct those subsidies from their taxes, which was absurd. The healthcare bill recently signed into law eliminated the deduction.

From Commerce Secretary Gary Locke quoted Donald Marron, acting CBO director for President George W. Bush, in his recent WSJ editorial: "[A]s the Joint Committee on Taxation recently noted, that treatment is highly unusual. In my view, it's right that the recent health legislation closed that loophole."

Locke added, "This change has garnered recent headlines because, to comply with accounting laws, companies affected by the provision have taken a one-time charge reflecting the loss of future tax deductions over the decades-long duration of their retiree health-care plans. Critics have seized on this accounting adjustment to suggest these costs—as much as $1 billion in one company's case—are going to place immediate and substantial cost burdens on America's businesses.

"This is disingenuous.

"The actual cash flow impact of these provisions begins in 2013, and is only a tiny fraction of the accounting charge-offs."

And to say the bill "does nothing to contain costs" exposes either dishonesty or ignorance. It includes insurance exchanges, price reductions, delivery reforms, capping the employer-provided tax exclusion, advances malpractice reforms, IT investments, prevention measures and an independent Medicare commission, not to mention what is possibly the most powerful -- bringing another 30 million plus into the ranks of the insured.

Harvard health economist David Cutler recently assembled a list of the 10 most potent cost controls in a Wall Street Journal editorial, and the bill includes all but one of the reforms on his wishlist -- a public option.

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