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The California unemployment rate jumped to 10.1 percent in January, according to the state's Employment Development Department. That's up from a revised 8.7 percent in December, and it's the first double-digit unemployment rate in a quarter century. The number of people without jobs has risen to more than 1.8 million, compared with 754,000 a year earlier. January's unemployment rate rate compares with 6.1 percent in January of 2008 and 5.0 percent in January of 2007. The EDD was supposed to release San Diego's unemployment rate today, but it has been delayed until Thursday, March 5.

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Comments

valueinvestingisdead Feb. 27, 2009 @ 2:39 p.m.

Will be 20% in a year and rampant crime and homelessness.

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Don Bauder Feb. 27, 2009 @ 3:10 p.m.

Response to post #1: Possible, but not probable, in my judgment. Best, Don Bauder

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SurfPuppy619 Feb. 27, 2009 @ 4:42 p.m.

Will be 20% in a year and rampant crime and homelessness.

By valueinvestingisdead

We're already at 15%-20%^, because the EDD does not count anyone "unemployed" more than 6 months as "unemployed".

Classic cooking of the books.

Add in those who are working part time as "fully employed" but need F/T work and the real number may reach 35%-50%.

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Don Bauder Feb. 27, 2009 @ 11:07 p.m.

Response to post #3: You are correct that unemployment is understated in the official statistics. I question that the real number could be 35-50%. Best, Don Bauder

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SurfPuppy619 Feb. 28, 2009 @ 6:26 p.m.

Yeah, 50% was over the top...but the true UE rate with part timers included could easily be 35%.

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valueinvestingisdead Feb. 28, 2009 @ 9:45 p.m.

If you include all the people off the rolls and underemployed, you would get 35% easy.

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Don Bauder Feb. 28, 2009 @ 10:25 p.m.

Response to posts #5 and #6: I don't want to sound like a Pollyanna, but I think 35 percent is high, no matter how the numbers are juggled. Maybe I can dig up some stats on this. Best, Don Bauder

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systemBuilder March 10, 2009 @ 6:28 p.m.

Don Bauder, I have loved your articles ever since moving to San Diego 10 years ago.

Dear valueinvestingisdead, if the unemployment rate is 35%, then as you walk down the street you should see that every 3rd house is unemployed, and freeways are emptying out. I have noticed very little change in freeway traffic in the past 12 months, and every morning the cars in my neighborhood clear out just about as quickly as ever. Are you saying that all these people leaving at 8am are going shopping now, rather than going to their jobs?

By the way, an article in the Arizona Republic in 1997 stated that San Diego was the #2 city for government jobs in America, right behind Washington DC. If that's still true, you'd expect much less of a downturn in this city since there haven't been government cutbacks ... yet.

Best Wishes, DWG.

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